Junior Marin — OGILVIE

Junior MarinOF FCL Phillies

Age 22 R/R 6'2" / 240 lbs ROK HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 61 proj PA

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .267 / .318

PA61

HR1

K%28

BB%6

ISO105

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Royals Blue	—	111	98	26	6	0	5	10	29	1	5	2	265	339	480	819	214	318	26	9	363	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL Royals Blue	—	111	92	35	8	0	7	16	19	1	5	2	380	477	696	1.173	315	412	17	14	494	236	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL Royals	—	103	96	21	5	1	0	5	46	1	3	1	219	265	292	556	73	412	45	5	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL Royals	—	103	92	29	7	1	0	9	31	1	3	1	315	382	413	795	98	468	30	9	356	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	19	17	3	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	176	222	235	458	59	250	32	5	224	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	19	17	5	2	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	294	333	412	745	118	357	21	5	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	107	99	20	4	1	3	4	25	2	5	3	202	248	354	601	152	233	23	4	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	107	97	28	6	1	3	6	19	2	5	3	289	343	464	807	175	325	18	6	351	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	PHI	—	61	56	11	2	0	1	4	17	1	1	0	196	262	286	548	89	289	28	7	265	61	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	PHI	34%	109	100	22	4	1	2	7	30	1	2	0	220	278	340	618	120	290	28	6	274	68	-4	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	PHI	46%	239	220	49	9	2	5	15	64	2	4	1	223	278	350	628	127	291	27	6	280	73	-7	+0	+0	-1	+7	-0.2
2027	23	MLB	PHI	34%	37	35	7	1	0	1	2	10	0	1	0	200	243	314	558	114	292	27	5	269	64	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	PHI	46%	110	101	22	4	1	2	7	29	1	2	0	218	275	337	612	119	293	26	6	275	68	-4	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	147	136	29	5	1	3	9	39	1	3	0	213	267	331	598	118	274	27	6	273	67	-5	+1	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	601	127	22	4	13	40	172	4	13	0	211	265	326	591	115	271	26	6	273	67	-24	+3	+0	-4	+18	-0.7
Career	—			—	749	686	152	31	5	16	46	217	8	20	7	222	278	351	630	130	295	29	6	278	71	-24	+1	+0	-4	+21	-0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	132	27	4	14	40	188	7	17	6	222	279	351	630	129	295	29	6	278	71	-21	+1	+0	-4	+18	-0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Royals Blue	—	111	92	35	8	0	7	16	19	1	5	2	380	477	696	1.173	315	412	17	14	494	236	+17	+0	—	—	+3	2.1
2022	18	ROK	ACL Royals	—	103	92	29	7	1	0	9	31	1	3	1	315	382	413	795	98	468	30	9	356	130	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.7
2023	19	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	19	17	5	2	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	294	333	412	745	118	357	21	5	315	99	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	20	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	107	97	28	6	1	3	6	19	2	5	3	289	343	464	807	175	325	18	6	351	126	+3	-0	—	—	+3	0.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	209	4	3	222	275	337	-1	+0	-0.2	-0.1
	/162	664	11	10	222	275	337	-4.0	+0.0	-0.7	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Junior Marin (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	214/267/318	104	289	1	1	28%	6%	61	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tyler Kolodny 2010 · A	22	40→36	43→45	49→50	41	200/271/316	116	273	11	8	30%	6%	63	-0.9	212/286/347	135	281	14	10	29%	6%	78	+0.2	214/295/369	155	271	17	10	26%	6%	84	+0.2
✕Ben Johnson 2016 · A	22	43→31	44→50	46→45	42	212/271/334	121	268	11	4	25%	6%	66	-0.6	173/222/248	75	317	5	9	44%	5%	23	-3.6	142/188/200	58	283	4	10	49%	4%	-7	-2.7
✕Malvin Matos 2019 · A	22	43→38	39→45	48→50	44	207/272/295	88	279	6	10	26%	7%	57	-1.2	211/277/333	122	296	14	11	32%	7%	69	-0.4	196/266/321	125	267	17	13	32%	7%	58	-0.9
✕Walking Cabrera 2023 · A	22	37→34	42→45	47→45	40	188/245/295	107	268	10	8	33%	7%	46	-2.0	203/253/315	112	302	12	9	35%	6%	54	-1.4	191/237/303	112	281	15	10	37%	5%	43	-1.2
✕Misael Urbina 2023 · A	21	38→29	42→45	49→50	44	189/258/299	110	261	8	12	30%	8%	53	-1.5	172/250/256	84	262	6	9	34%	9%	38	-2.6	154/242/228	74	235	5	8	33%	9%	26	-2.0
✕Ramon Beltre 2019 · A	22	44→28	40	49→50	37	216/249/308	91	286	8	7	27%	4%	50	-1.8	183/211/268	85	283	6	6	36%	3%	22	-3.7	151/172/231	79	238	5	6	38%	2%	-8	-4.5
✕Steven Baron 2013 · A	22	39	41→45	50	37	193/232/296	103	263	8	10	30%	4%	40	-2.4	194/233/281	87	280	5	9	31%	5%	36	-2.7	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Luis Castro 2018 · A	22	44→38	41→50	49→45	41	214/262/318	104	265	7	11	22%	4%	59	-1.1	216/299/339	123	300	12	9	30%	7%	81	+0.4	196/281/336	140	282	16	8	34%	8%	71	-0.2
✕Brandon Lewis 2021 · A	22	42→36	39→55	49→30	41	203/264/290	86	289	7	6	30%	6%	52	-1.6	200/253/377	177	299	25	3	40%	6%	72	-0.2	180/234/343	163	262	24	1	40%	5%	52	-1.1
✕Chris Roller 2019 · A	22	40	41→50	51→55	42	193/268/296	103	286	9	14	34%	8%	56	-1.3	205/269/314	109	292	8	12	30%	6%	60	-1.0	179/262/313	134	284	16	16	40%	8%	57	-0.7
✕Allan Cerda 2021 · A	21	45→22	42→55	47→45	42	215/291/320	105	306	9	7	31%	7%	72	-0.2	184/280/353	169	285	20	5	40%	9%	77	+0.1	155/264/323	168	238	21	5	42%	10%	60	-0.6
✕Kyle Nevin 2023 · A	21	41→38	40→45	52→50	38	198/249/295	97	282	6	10	31%	5%	47	-1.9	217/274/320	103	339	9	10	36%	7%	64	-0.8	212/271/309	97	334	9	12	37%	7%	57	-0.7
✕Zack Larson 2015 · A	21	45→35	39→45	52→50	40	217/270/299	82	292	6	11	27%	5%	57	-1.2	190/247/252	62	266	2	10	28%	6%	35	-2.8	164/223/206	43	232	0	12	27%	6%	13	-3.3
✕Jose Paniagua 2015 · A	21	38	40→50	50→55	42	189/249/288	99	268	7	12	31%	7%	46	-2.0	198/248/295	97	289	8	8	32%	6%	46	-2.0	179/215/276	97	256	10	2	33%	3%	23	-1.0
✕Skyler Ewing 2015 · A	22	44→39	41→50	49→30	41	210/269/311	101	298	7	6	31%	6%	60	-1.0	199/266/313	114	268	11	3	28%	7%	59	-1.1	192/264/325	134	250	15	1	29%	7%	59	-0.7
✕Zach Green 2016 · A	22	43→41	41→55	49→40	39	210/252/306	96	286	8	6	29%	5%	50	-1.7	204/259/337	133	322	14	3	39%	5%	63	-0.8	192/267/372	179	300	23	1	42%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→34	41→45	48→50	40	199/264/295	96	283	9	10	32%	6%	54	-1.4	202/295/301	99	301	9	8	33%	10%	69	-0.4	182/291/276	94	275	9	10	33%	11%	61	-0.6
✕Glenn Santiago 2023 · A	22	42	41→40	46→45	39	204/256/303	99	288	9	8	31%	6%	52	-1.6	199/262/282	83	293	7	9	32%	7%	50	-1.8	183/253/253	70	269	6	8	32%	7%	37	-1.1
✕Claudio Finol 2022 · A	22	40	39→40	46→45	40	193/251/277	85	270	5	6	30%	6%	43	-2.2	194/250/277	83	275	7	9	30%	6%	43	-2.2	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3