Jose Chavez (P, Carolina Mudcats) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jose Chavez P Carolina Mudcats

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 150 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%22.7%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers Blue	11	3	16	84	26	14	2	27%	1.4	21.0%	20.8%	0.2%	3.5%	10.34	5.89	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers Blue	11	3	16	84	26	14	2	27%	1.4	31.0%	16.7%	14.3%	2.4%	10.34	4.12	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers Blue	20	0	24	121	24	18	0	0%	1.2	13.5%	18.6%	-5.1%	0.0%	6.00	4.32	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers Blue	20	0	24	121	24	18	0	0%	1.2	19.8%	14.9%	5.0%	0.0%	6.00	3.35	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	32	146	42	17	1	0%	1.5	18.6%	15.8%	2.9%	1.0%	5.91	4.05	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	32	146	42	17	1	0%	1.5	18.6%	15.8%	2.9%	1.0%	5.91	4.05	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	32	146	42	17	1	0%	1.5	28.8%	11.6%	17.1%	0.7%	5.91	2.48	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.7%	11.2%	11.5%	3.0%	4.62	4.62	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIL	19	0	20	84	20	9	2	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.3%	13.0%	2.9%	4.50	4.44	+0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIL	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	10.3%	13.0%	2.9%	4.50	4.44	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.3%	13.0%	2.9%	4.50	4.06	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	23	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.3%	13.0%	2.9%	4.50	4.06	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		52	3	72	351	61	63	4	6%	1.4	17.4%	18.0%	-0.5%	1.2%	6.91	4.58	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	8	200	980	171	176	12	6%	1.4	17.4%	18.0%	-0.5%	1.2%	6.91	4.58	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Chavez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	22.7%	11.2%	3.0%	—	4.44	23.3%	13.0%	20	-0.18	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	91
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	91
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	91
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	88
Chris Perez R 2008 · 4.22 FIP	23	SU	4.22	23.7%	12.4%	2.8%	.269	3.71	22.5%	12.6%	180	-0.51	3.18	379	88
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	88
Cre Finfrock R 2019 · 4.63 FIP	23	SU	4.63	23.0%	11.7%	3.6%	.278	6.31	16.7%	-8.5%	36	+1.68	4.27	103	86
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	86
Nic Enright R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	22	SU	3.63	24.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.263	3.01	29.6%	23.5%	124	-0.62	0.43	249	86
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	86
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	86
Shawn Tolleson R 2012 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	24.4%	11.9%	2.4%	.265	3.47	24.4%	18.5%	144	-0.39	3.05	218	86
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	86
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	86
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	86
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	86
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	85
Donovan Benoit R 2022 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	25.3%	12.4%	1.9%	.284	4.43	17.6%	4.3%	138	+0.85	3.58	183	85
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	85
Cody Allen R 2012 · 3.67 FIP	23	SU	3.67	21.4%	11.9%	1.6%	.329	2.40	32.1%	24.3%	209	-1.27	1.58	464	85