Bryan Mena

P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A+ peak 0.5 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	20	13	79	4.99	4.07	23.5%	11.9%	—	K 16.4% · BB 14.5% · FIP 5.39
2025	21	ACOL	29	18	107	5.62	3.98	19.5%	11.4%	—	K 14.4% · BB 13.5% · FIP 5.08
2026	22	A+PIT	22	14	89	4.87	5.56	18.0%	9.5%	—	K 13.9% · BB 11.0% · FIP 6.68
2027PROJ	23	MLBPIT	10	10	65	6.30	6.30	12.2%	14.4%	-1.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBPIT	7	7	43	5.97	5.88	14.6%	13.2%	-0.5
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBPIT	10	10	67	5.72	5.63	16.0%	12.4%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control35Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsOscar Verdugo (age 25) · Jacob Meador (age 23) · Carlos Marmol (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 153145vR 137

ERA6.30

FIP6.30

K%12.2%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%-2.3%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3535

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	13	2	34	142	35	10	1	15%	2.6	16.8%	8.8%	8.0%	0.9%	1.57	3.28	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	13	2	34	142	35	10	1	15%	2.6	24.6%	7.0%	17.6%	0.7%	1.57	2.31	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	9	5	36	161	32	11	1	56%	4.0	13.5%	8.5%	5.0%	0.9%	4.54	3.56	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	9	5	36	161	32	11	1	56%	4.0	19.9%	6.8%	13.0%	0.6%	4.54	2.60	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	6	6	26	112	28	7	0	100%	4.3	17.0%	7.8%	9.2%	0.0%	5.26	2.65	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	6	6	26	112	28	7	0	100%	4.3	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	0.0%	5.26	1.74	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	13	79	353	83	42	9	65%	4.0	16.4%	14.5%	1.9%	3.3%	4.99	5.39	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	13	79	353	83	42	9	65%	4.0	16.4%	14.5%	1.9%	3.3%	4.99	5.39	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	13	79	353	83	42	9	65%	4.0	23.5%	11.9%	11.6%	2.5%	4.99	4.07	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	29	18	107	498	97	57	9	62%	3.7	14.4%	13.5%	0.9%	2.7%	5.62	5.08	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	29	18	107	498	97	57	9	62%	3.7	14.4%	13.5%	0.9%	2.7%	5.62	5.08	—
2025	21	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	29	18	107	498	97	57	9	62%	3.7	19.5%	11.4%	8.0%	1.8%	5.62	3.98	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	22	14	89	388	70	37	19	64%	4.0	13.9%	11.0%	2.9%	6.1%	4.87	6.68	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	22	14	89	388	70	37	19	64%	4.0	13.9%	11.0%	2.9%	6.1%	4.87	6.68	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	22	14	89	388	70	37	19	64%	4.0	18.0%	9.5%	8.5%	4.9%	4.87	5.56	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	PIT	10	10	65	274	33	40	10	100%	6.5	12.2%	14.4%	-2.3%	3.7%	6.30	6.30	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	99	418	61	55	15	100%	6.2	14.6%	13.2%	1.4%	3.6%	5.97	5.88	-1.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	100	423	68	52	15	100%	6.3	16.0%	12.4%	3.6%	3.5%	5.72	5.63	-0.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	100	423	71	51	15	100%	6.3	16.8%	12.1%	4.7%	3.5%	5.57	5.51	-0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	PIT	15	15	99	417	71	50	15	100%	6.6	16.9%	12.1%	4.9%	3.5%	5.53	5.52	-0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	PIT	15	15	96	404	68	49	15	100%	6.4	16.8%	12.2%	4.6%	3.6%	5.57	5.60	-0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	PIT	14	14	91	386	64	48	15	100%	6.5	16.6%	12.5%	4.1%	3.8%	5.67	5.74	-0.8
2034	30	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	86	363	59	46	14	100%	6.6	16.2%	12.8%	3.5%	4.0%	5.82	5.91	-0.9
2028	24	MLB CTX	PIT	7	7	43	182	26	24	7	100%	6.1	14.6%	13.2%	1.4%	3.6%	5.97	5.88	-0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	67	283	45	35	10	100%	6.7	16.0%	12.4%	3.6%	3.5%	5.72	5.63	-0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	79	334	56	40	12	100%	6.6	16.8%	12.1%	4.7%	3.5%	5.57	5.51	-0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	84	355	60	43	13	100%	6.5	16.9%	12.1%	4.9%	3.5%	5.53	5.52	-0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	85	359	60	44	13	100%	6.5	16.8%	12.2%	4.6%	3.6%	5.57	5.60	-0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	83	350	58	44	13	100%	6.4	16.6%	12.5%	4.1%	3.8%	5.67	5.74	-0.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	79	334	54	43	13	100%	6.6	16.2%	12.8%	3.5%	4.0%	5.82	5.91	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		81	81	520	2196	361	272	80	100%	6.4	16.4%	12.4%	4.0%	3.7%	5.67	5.29	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	139	105	31	100%	6.4	16.4%	12.4%	4.0%	3.7%	5.67	5.29	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		99	58	371	1654	248	196	52	59%	3.7	15.0%	11.9%	3.2%	3.1%	4.80	5.05	-5.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	31	200	892	134	106	28	59%	3.7	15.0%	11.9%	3.2%	3.1%	4.80	5.05	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Mena (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.30	12.2%	14.4%	3.7%	—	5.67	15.8%	3.2%	299	-0.63	—	—	—
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	86
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	85
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	83
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	83
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	83
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	83
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	81
Mitchell Boggs R 2008 · 5.80 FIP	24	SP-	5.80	7.9%	13.4%	3.0%	.298	3.63	18.0%	8.6%	186	-2.17	3.21	330	80
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	80
John Maine R 2005 · 6.04 FIP	24	SP-	6.04	13.0%	13.0%	4.3%	.242	4.20	20.9%	11.4%	421	-1.84	3.91	582	80
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	79
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	79
Dane Myers R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	23	SW	5.32	12.2%	11.5%	3.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	125	78
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	78
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	78
Nic Swanson R 2022 · 6.18 FIP	23	SP-	6.18	18.5%	15.9%	4.8%	.302	4.74	18.6%	7.7%	284	-1.44	4.29	438	78
Billy Buckner R 2007 · 5.43 FIP	23	SP-	5.43	11.9%	11.2%	3.5%	.305	4.73	18.3%	10.4%	104	-0.70	3.73	252	78
Jorge Sosa R 2002 · 5.77 FIP	25	SW	5.77	11.1%	12.4%	3.7%	.228	4.55	15.7%	5.5%	362	-1.22	4.06	773	78
Wellington Caceres R 2018 · 5.73 FIP	22	SP-	5.73	12.0%	11.4%	4.0%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	121	77
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	92	15.9%	12.6%	1.41	5.75
Mac Suzuki ('02)	2.3	93	15.4%	12.5%	1.29	5.72
Blake Stein ('02)	2.4	95	17.4%	13.2%	1.48	5.41
Sean Douglass ('05)	1.0	52	16.6%	12.1%	1.47	6.11
Charlie Bishop ('52-'55, -1 WAR*)	1.5	98	16.9%*	11.2%*	1.30*	5.49*
Mike Kekich ('65-'77, -7 WAR*)	4.3	108	17.8%*	11.4%*	1.17*	5.83*
Jerry Casale ('58-'62, -1 WAR*)	1.9	93	18.7%*	11.2%*	1.44*	5.30*