Oscar Paredes prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Oscar Paredes P DSL Twins

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 176 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 101

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

K%22.9%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	11	0	25	112	22	10	0	0%	2.3	13.4%	11.2%	2.2%	0.0%	5.68	3.39	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	11	0	25	112	22	10	0	0%	2.3	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	0.0%	5.68	2.55	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	13	6	28	143	25	20	3	46%	2.2	11.9%	17.5%	-5.6%	2.8%	6.99	5.87	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	13	6	28	143	25	20	3	46%	2.2	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	2.1%	6.99	4.83	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	12	0	15	68	12	7	3	0%	1.2	12.0%	12.9%	-0.9%	6.2%	6.00	7.10	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	12	0	15	68	12	7	3	0%	1.2	12.0%	12.9%	-0.9%	6.2%	6.00	7.10	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	12	0	15	68	12	7	3	0%	1.2	17.6%	10.3%	7.4%	4.4%	6.00	5.50	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.9%	9.9%	13.0%	3.0%	4.45	4.45	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIN	19	0	20	84	20	8	3	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.3%	14.4%	3.0%	4.35	4.28	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIN	10	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.3%	14.4%	3.0%	4.35	4.28	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.3%	14.4%	3.0%	4.35	3.90	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	81	20	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.3%	14.4%	3.0%	4.35	3.90	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		36	6	69	323	40	46	8	17%	1.9	12.4%	14.3%	-1.9%	2.6%	6.29	5.27	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	17	200	941	117	135	24	17%	1.9	12.4%	14.3%	-1.9%	2.6%	6.29	5.27	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Oscar Paredes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	22.9%	9.9%	3.0%	—	4.28	23.7%	14.4%	20	-0.17	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	90
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	86
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	85
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.27	286	85
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	84
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	83
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	82
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	82
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	82
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	82
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	81
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	81
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	81
Corey Copping R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	21.4%	8.7%	3.1%	.265	4.55	19.6%	6.7%	179	+0.42	3.38	214	81
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	81
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	81
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	81
Austin Hutchison R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	22	SW	4.05	19.7%	6.0%	3.4%	.340	4.55	18.7%	9.2%	213	+0.50	3.51	235	81
Kevin Coulter R 2019 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.51	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.24	3.27	128	81
Jorge Julio R 2001 · 3.48 FIP	22	SU	3.48	22.2%	9.1%	2.0%	.348	4.31	20.4%	10.1%	199	+0.83	3.48	467	81