Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 14 | 7 | 29 | 137 | 11 | 18 | 3 | 50% | 2.1 | 5.5% | 16.4% | -11.0% | 2.2% | 6.52 | 5.90 | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 14 | 7 | 29 | 137 | 11 | 18 | 3 | 50% | 2.1 | 8.0% | 13.1% | -5.1% | 2.2% | 6.52 | 5.55 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 14 | 3 | 20 | 107 | 19 | 21 | 3 | 21% | 1.4 | 12.1% | 24.5% | -12.5% | 3.7% | 11.70 | 7.23 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 14 | 3 | 20 | 107 | 19 | 21 | 3 | 21% | 1.4 | 17.8% | 19.6% | -1.9% | 2.8% | 11.70 | 6.30 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 17 | 0 | 31 | 119 | 25 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 14.3% | 13.7% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.44 | 4.41 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 17 | 0 | 31 | 119 | 25 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 1.7% | 1.44 | 3.58 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | 13 | 0 | 20 | 100 | 23 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 15.6% | 15.0% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 4.58 | 4.55 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | 13 | 0 | 20 | 100 | 23 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 1.0% | 4.58 | 3.25 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 47 | 209 | 45 | 26 | 2 | 3% | 1.4 | 15.7% | 14.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.66 | 4.34 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 47 | 209 | 45 | 26 | 2 | 3% | 1.4 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 1.0% | 2.66 | 3.40 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Ontario Tower Buzzers | 28 | 0 | 32 | 166 | 29 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 12.9% | 20.6% | -7.7% | 1.6% | 9.19 | 5.48 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAD | 42 | 0 | 45 | 188 | 28 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.1% | 15.8% | -0.7% | 2.8% | 5.75 | 5.75 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.1% | 15.8% | -0.7% | 2.8% | 5.75 | 5.75 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 77 | 354 | 57 | 59 | 7 | — | — | 16.2% | 16.6% | -0.4% | 2.1% | 7.19 | 5.64 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 44 | 0 | 46 | 195 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.0% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 5.46 | 5.37 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 36 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 13.2% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 5.23 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 38 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 12.6% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 5.08 | 5.01 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 5.46 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 25 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 13.2% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 5.23 | 5.14 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 31 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 12.6% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 5.08 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 90 | 0 | 95 | 401 | 73 | 53 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 13.2% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 5.22 | 4.76 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 154 | 112 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 13.2% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 5.22 | 4.76 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 119 | 11 | 180 | 838 | 107 | 145 | 15 | 9% | 1.5 | 12.8% | 17.3% | -4.5% | 1.8% | 5.46 | 5.23 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 132 | 12 | 200 | 933 | 119 | 161 | 17 | 9% | 1.5 | 12.8% | 17.3% | -4.5% | 1.8% | 5.46 | 5.23 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jhonny Jimenez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.75 | 15.1% | 15.8% | 2.8% | — | 5.17 | 18.0% | 4.7% | 142 | -0.58 | — | — | — |
| Cory Thompson R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.42 | 15.2% | 15.7% | 2.9% | .289 | 4.28 | 16.3% | 10.6% | 131 | -1.14 | 3.48 | 218 | 94 |
| Ocean Gabonia R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.94 | 15.4% | 14.6% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.31 | 19.1% | 10.9% | 91 | -1.63 | 2.79 | 144 | 92 |
| Noah Takacs R 2026 · 5.82 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.82 | 12.5% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .301 | 5.77 | 13.8% | -2.3% | 83 | -0.05 | 5.15 | 122 | 91 |
| Cole Ayers R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.49 | 13.0% | 15.4% | 2.8% | .305 | 3.96 | 21.2% | 10.1% | 152 | -1.53 | 3.52 | 171 | 89 |
| Stefan Raeth R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 18.0% | 15.4% | 2.3% | .309 | 4.76 | 17.5% | 8.3% | 124 | -0.03 | 4.36 | 173 | 89 |
| Fabian Anguamea R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.91 | 16.6% | 15.2% | 2.3% | .295 | 4.45 | 15.8% | 1.8% | 96 | -0.46 | 3.94 | 164 | 89 |
| Jacinto Arredondo R 2027 · 5.22 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.22 | 14.4% | 12.7% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.89 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 50 | -0.33 | 4.89 | 101 | 87 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2028 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 87 |
| Cole Hillier R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.69 | 16.9% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.61 | 18.4% | 4.4% | 95 | -0.08 | 3.72 | 153 | 87 |
| Alec Kenilvort R 2027 · 6.05 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.05 | 15.1% | 17.0% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.95 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 85 | -2.10 | 2.89 | 109 | 86 |
| Audry Lugo R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 17.6% | 15.8% | 2.1% | .333 | 5.73 | 13.7% | -2.6% | 39 | +0.94 | 4.05 | 113 | 86 |
| Tyler Smith R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.30 | 17.8% | 14.3% | 3.4% | .329 | 4.45 | 19.8% | 7.8% | 94 | -0.85 | 3.48 | 121 | 86 |
| Nick Kuzia R 2025 · 5.18 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.18 | 16.5% | 15.2% | 2.8% | .361 | 5.13 | 17.6% | 6.6% | 60 | -0.05 | 4.55 | 231 | 86 |
| Matt De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.72 | 14.1% | 16.5% | 1.3% | .304 | 4.53 | 17.4% | 2.2% | 81 | -0.19 | 4.47 | 102 | 86 |
| Brooks Crawford R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.78 | 14.9% | 13.7% | 2.2% | .262 | 3.46 | 22.1% | 14.5% | 103 | -1.32 | 2.50 | 296 | 85 |
| Jackson Rose R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.32 | 17.3% | 17.2% | 2.8% | .267 | 4.58 | 23.5% | 16.5% | 56 | -0.74 | 3.55 | 147 | 85 |
| Junior Rincon R 2027 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.93 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .318 | 3.77 | 17.6% | 5.1% | 82 | -1.16 | 3.50 | 113 | 85 |
| Everhett Hazelwood R 2027 · 5.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.32 | 13.8% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .306 | 6.84 | 18.7% | 2.9% | 63 | +1.52 | 5.32 | 117 | 85 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2028 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.27 | 15.5% | 17.2% | 2.4% | .237 | 5.45 | 13.6% | -1.7% | 68 | +0.18 | 5.27 | 124 | 85 |
| Brett Hanewich R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.18 | 15.9% | 17.6% | 2.2% | .372 | 4.32 | 20.3% | 2.8% | 108 | -0.86 | 4.25 | 134 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 47 | 17.3% | 13.9% | 1.08 | 5.37 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |