Carlos Avila — OGILVIE

Carlos AvilaC ACL Dodgers

Age 22 L/R 5'11" / 180 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 128 proj PA

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .268 / .277

PA128

HR1

K%30

BB%7

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Dodgers Shoemaker	—	71	65	11	1	1	0	4	21	2	2	1	169	239	215	455	46	250	30	6	196	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL Dodgers Shoemaker	—	71	63	13	1	1	0	6	16	2	2	1	206	296	254	550	48	277	23	8	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	—	141	124	30	4	1	1	11	25	6	4	3	242	333	315	648	73	296	18	8	289	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	—	141	120	37	5	1	2	15	18	6	4	3	308	411	417	828	108	350	13	11	378	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	2 teams	—	97	86	6	1	0	0	8	35	1	0	1	70	158	81	239	12	113	36	8	137	-37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	2 teams	—	97	79	9	2	0	0	15	24	1	0	1	114	263	139	402	25	158	25	15	207	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	2 teams	—	70	61	15	2	0	0	6	20	2	0	0	246	333	279	612	33	357	29	9	284	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	2 teams	—	70	57	19	3	0	0	10	14	2	0	0	333	449	386	835	53	432	20	14	383	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	LAD	—	128	116	24	4	1	1	10	38	1	1	0	207	276	284	560	78	287	30	8	252	51	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	LAD	34%	272	246	52	9	1	4	21	79	3	3	1	211	281	305	586	93	289	29	8	263	60	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.0
2028	24	MLB	LAD	46%	361	326	70	12	2	6	28	103	4	4	1	215	285	319	604	104	290	29	8	271	66	-14	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.3
2029	25	MLB	LAD	52%	407	368	80	14	2	7	32	114	4	4	1	217	287	323	610	106	290	28	8	276	69	-14	+0	+0	+7	+12	0.5
2030	26	MLB	LAD	54%	436	394	86	15	2	8	34	122	5	5	2	218	289	327	616	109	290	28	8	278	71	-14	+0	+0	+8	+12	0.6
2031	27	MLB	LAD	54%	447	403	87	15	2	8	36	125	5	5	2	216	288	323	611	107	290	28	8	278	71	-15	+0	+0	+8	+13	0.6
2032	28	MLB	LAD	54%	449	405	87	15	2	8	36	126	5	4	2	215	287	321	608	106	290	28	8	277	70	-15	+0	-1	+8	+13	0.5
2033	29	MLB	LAD	58%	443	399	86	15	2	8	36	126	5	4	1	216	289	323	612	108	289	28	8	275	69	-16	+0	-1	+8	+13	0.4
2034	30	MLB	LAD	60%	436	393	83	14	2	7	35	125	5	4	1	211	284	310	594	99	287	29	8	273	67	-16	+0	-2	+8	+12	0.2
2027	23	MLB	LAD	34%	93	85	17	3	0	1	7	27	1	1	0	200	269	271	539	71	285	29	8	253	52	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	LAD	46%	167	150	32	5	1	3	13	47	2	2	1	213	285	320	605	107	286	28	8	260	57	-8	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.0
2029	25	MLB	LAD	52%	210	190	41	7	1	4	16	59	2	2	1	216	284	326	610	111	287	28	8	265	61	-9	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.0
2030	26	MLB	LAD	54%	236	212	45	8	1	4	19	66	3	2	1	212	286	316	602	104	287	28	8	267	63	-10	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.1
2031	27	MLB	LAD	54%	242	218	46	8	1	4	19	68	3	3	1	211	283	312	595	101	286	28	8	267	63	-10	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.1
2032	28	MLB	LAD	54%	244	219	46	8	1	4	20	69	3	2	1	210	285	311	596	100	286	28	8	266	62	-10	+0	-0	+4	+7	0.0
2033	29	MLB	LAD	58%	255	229	48	8	1	4	21	72	3	2	1	210	285	306	590	96	285	28	8	264	61	-11	+0	-1	+5	+7	-0.0
2034	30	MLB	LAD	60%	261	235	48	8	1	4	21	75	3	2	1	204	278	298	576	94	284	29	8	262	59	-12	+0	-1	+5	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1708	1538	323	55	7	28	136	483	20	16	7	210	283	309	592	99	285	28	8	264	60	-77	+0	-2	+30	+48	0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	124	21	3	11	52	184	8	6	3	212	286	315	600	103	288	28	8	264	60	-29	+0	-1	+12	+18	-0.0
Career	—			—	3758	3386	717	121	18	58	297	1059	48	40	16	212	285	310	594	98	288	28	8	270	64	-151	+2	-4	+67	+106	2.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	124	21	3	10	51	183	8	7	3	212	283	309	592	97	288	28	8	270	64	-26	+0	-1	+12	+18	0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Dodgers Shoemaker	—	71	63	13	1	1	0	6	16	2	2	1	206	296	254	550	48	277	23	8	261	58	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2022	18	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	—	141	120	37	5	1	2	15	18	6	4	3	308	411	417	828	108	350	13	11	378	148	+8	-0	—	—	+4	1.1
2024	20	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	20	18	2	0	0	0	2	8	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		200	40	10	160	-19	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	20	ROK	ACL Dodgers	—	77	61	7	2	0	0	13	16	1	0	1	115	280	148	428	33	149	21	17	219	26	-6	-0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	21	A	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	21	18	8	1	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	444	524	500	1.024	56	571	19	14	462	212	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	21	ROK	ACL Dodgers	—	49	39	11	2	0	0	7	10	2	0	0	282	417	333	750	51	367	20	14	348	125	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,838	31	18	215	283	319	+33	+20	1.7	1.8
	/162	664	11	7	215	283	319	+11.9	+7.2	0.6	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carlos Avila (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	200/268/277	76	287	1	1	30%	7%	51	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Livan Soto 2022 · AA	22	36→46	40	50	41	181/235/274	93	246	8	11	29%	6%	36	-2.7	225/291/315	90	302	7	9	26%	8%	70	-0.3	236/307/320	84	310	7	8	24%	9%	76	+0.0
✕Ashton McGee 2021 · A	22	41	39→45	50→40	41	194/258/283	89	288	5	5	33%	7%	48	-1.9	196/284/305	109	362	11	4	44%	10%	66	-0.6	177/274/284	107	334	12	2	45%	11%	53	-0.8
✕Pratt Maynard 2012 · A	22	43	39→45	48→45	42	206/272/292	86	305	7	5	33%	7%	56	-1.3	216/277/305	89	275	7	5	22%	8%	62	-0.9	218/282/314	95	271	7	4	21%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Christopher Familia 2022 · A	22	42	38→55	47→45	43	200/270/285	85	279	4	10	28%	7%	54	-1.4	212/277/365	153	274	19	5	29%	6%	79	+0.3	203/266/377	174	255	24	2	31%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Jamodrick McGruder 2014 · A	22	40→46	37→45	52→50	46	194/262/260	66	258	5	10	26%	8%	43	-2.2	216/290/317	101	275	7	10	22%	9%	70	-0.3	216/298/324	108	271	6	10	21%	10%	71	-0.2
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Carlos Soto 2021 · A	22	42	41→50	47→30	41	206/265/302	96	286	9	5	30%	6%	56	-1.3	194/271/313	119	274	11	3	31%	9%	62	-0.9	169/256/291	122	232	12	0	31%	10%	49	-0.8
✕Anthony Seigler 2021 · A	22	42→39	37→50	49→55	47	199/276/274	74	283	5	6	29%	9%	53	-1.5	192/289/301	109	273	9	9	30%	12%	67	-0.5	226/317/363	137	277	12	28	21%	11%	91	+0.6
✕Raynel Delgado 2022 · A	22	37→47	39→40	47→60	37	183/237/265	83	279	7	13	36%	6%	34	-2.8	212/279/307	95	299	8	18	30%	7%	63	-0.8	242/304/336	94	333	8	32	28%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Carlos Luis 2022 · A	22	43→51	39→45	45→40	39	208/254/297	89	301	6	5	32%	6%	49	-1.8	230/279/332	102	311	10	3	28%	6%	69	-0.4	232/283/333	100	309	10	1	27%	6%	68	-0.3
✕Wendell Rijo 2018 · AA	22	40→41	38→55	45→50	39	194/248/274	81	270	6	11	30%	5%	41	-2.3	205/260/312	107	271	11	7	27%	6%	56	-1.3	208/263/371	163	264	20	14	29%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	39→49	38→45	48→50	44	184/272/269	85	267	5	10	31%	8%	52	-1.6	206/276/298	92	284	6	11	28%	6%	60	-1.0	223/293/322	99	294	9	16	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Jeisson Rosario 2022 · AA	22	43→49	38→45	46→50	45	201/276/277	76	302	6	11	33%	9%	54	-1.4	207/292/317	110	301	10	12	32%	10%	72	-0.2	197/291/307	109	288	11	12	32%	11%	65	-0.4
✕Daniel Schneemann 2019 · A	22	38→48	40→50	50	43	185/251/280	94	271	8	6	33%	8%	44	-2.1	209/267/297	88	289	7	9	28%	7%	55	-1.4	226/305/375	149	299	15	13	28%	10%	88	+0.7
✕Jose Sibrian 2021 · A	22	43	38→50	49→30	39	204/261/283	79	291	5	6	30%	6%	49	-1.8	200/255/276	76	267	5	3	26%	5%	45	-2.1	193/253/280	87	245	8	0	24%	5%	42	-0.8
✕Michael Pérez 2016 · A	23	34	41→50	42→40	41	176/240/273	97	255	9	4	33%	7%	38	-2.6	207/260/304	97	277	8	3	27%	6%	53	-1.5	221/281/340	119	284	13	0	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Blake Hunt 2021 · A	22	41	39→50	49→40	43	198/254/288	90	263	6	6	26%	6%	47	-1.9	192/251/307	115	278	12	4	34%	6%	52	-1.6	207/268/341	134	263	14	2	26%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Michael Cruz 2018 · A	22	40	40→55	48→30	48	196/276/284	88	244	7	5	22%	8%	57	-1.2	213/266/361	148	243	17	4	20%	6%	72	-0.2	187/252/334	147	215	19	1	23%	6%	58	-0.5
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	35	-2.8	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	60	-1.0	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	74	-0.0
✕J.C. Escarra 2018 · A	23	39→46	38→45	43→45	50	186/276/271	85	246	4	3	25%	9%	54	-1.4	195/259/285	90	246	8	4	23%	6%	49	-1.8	223/294/353	130	256	11	4	17%	8%	80	+0.2