Austin Aldeano — OGILVIE

Austin Aldeano P Lynchburg Hillcats

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 22 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%22.3%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%7.6%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Indians Red	10	10	38	160	35	8	1	100%	3.8	14.9%	6.2%	8.6%	0.9%	2.84	3.11	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Indians Red	10	10	38	160	35	8	1	100%	3.8	21.9%	5.0%	16.9%	0.6%	2.84	2.23	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	12	12	51	203	38	12	1	100%	4.2	12.7%	7.4%	5.3%	0.8%	2.13	3.37	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	12	12	51	203	38	12	1	100%	4.2	18.7%	5.9%	12.8%	0.5%	2.13	2.57	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	4	0	9	42	13	7	1	0%	2.2	31.0%	16.7%	14.3%	2.4%	6.23	3.90	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	4	0	9	42	13	7	1	0%	2.2	31.0%	16.7%	14.3%	2.4%	6.23	4.02	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	13	7	49	208	39	19	7	54%	3.7	12.8%	11.4%	1.3%	4.8%	5.18	6.10	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	13	7	49	208	39	19	7	54%	3.7	12.8%	11.4%	1.3%	4.8%	5.18	6.10	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	13	7	49	208	39	19	7	54%	3.7	18.8%	9.1%	9.6%	3.4%	5.18	4.54	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	0	33	156	48	26	10	0%	1.4	22.8%	19.7%	3.1%	7.0%	6.89	7.53	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	0	33	156	48	26	10	0%	1.4	22.8%	19.7%	3.1%	7.0%	6.89	7.53	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	0	33	156	48	26	10	0%	1.4	30.8%	16.7%	14.1%	6.4%	6.89	6.53	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CLE	21	0	22	93	21	14	3	0%	1.0	22.3%	14.8%	7.6%	3.2%	5.21	5.21	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	29	0	30	127	29	16	4	0%	1.0	23.0%	13.0%	10.0%	3.1%	4.99	4.90	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	12	0	13	55	13	7	2	0%	1.1	23.0%	13.0%	10.0%	3.1%	4.99	4.90	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	54	12	7	2	0%	1.1	23.0%	13.0%	10.0%	3.1%	4.99	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	109	31	0%	1.1	23.0%	13.0%	10.0%	3.1%	4.99	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		62	29	179	769	125	86	25	47%	2.9	16.2%	11.2%	5.0%	3.2%	4.18	4.93	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	32	200	861	140	97	28	47%	2.9	16.2%	11.2%	5.0%	3.2%	4.18	4.93	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Aldeano (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	22.3%	14.8%	3.2%	—	4.90	23.0%	10.0%	30	-0.31	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	85
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	82
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.80	25.1%	15.0%	175	-0.63	2.47	305	79
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	79
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	79
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	78
Kevin Abel R 2022 · 5.92 FIP	23	SW	5.92	25.2%	22.4%	3.9%	.441	4.63	18.6%	4.5%	308	-1.29	4.50	450	78
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	77
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	77
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	76
Nick Gallagher R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	23	SP-	4.56	22.0%	17.9%	1.9%	.274	5.02	21.0%	7.0%	73	+0.46	4.10	196	76
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	76
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	76
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	76
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	75
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	75
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	75
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	75
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	74
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	22.7%	13.7%	1.22	5.08
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68