Yancel Guerrero — OGILVIE

Yancel GuerreroSS FCL Cardinals

Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 169 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 147 proj PA

wRC+†38

AVG/OBP/SLG.181 / .245 / .262

PA147

HR2

K%32

BB%6

ISO82

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	93	83	14	1	1	0	4	41	6	2	1	169	258	205	463	36	333	44	4	208	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	93	80	21	2	2	0	7	31	6	2	1	263	366	338	703	75	429	33	8	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	154	126	21	2	1	1	20	71	8	12	2	167	318	222	540	56	370	46	13	257	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	154	116	31	3	2	2	30	48	8	12	2	267	448	379	827	112	439	31	19	388	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	112	101	14	3	1	0	5	53	5	4	1	139	216	188	404	50	286	47	4	185	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	112	98	21	5	2	0	8	37	5	4	1	214	306	306	612	92	339	33	7	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	158	139	23	2	2	4	6	78	11	8	0	165	256	295	551	129	322	49	4	241	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	158	134	34	3	3	6	11	56	11	8	0	254	359	455	814	201	378	35	7	360	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	176	153	21	4	0	1	10	71	10	26	6	137	237	183	420	46	241	40	6	195	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	176	146	32	7	0	2	17	49	10	26	6	219	341	308	649	89	309	28	10	302	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	STL	—	147	135	25	4	1	2	8	47	3	3	1	185	247	274	521	89	264	32	5	235	38	-10	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	STL	34%	210	191	37	7	1	3	13	64	4	5	1	194	260	288	548	94	268	30	6	248	48	-12	+1	+0	+2	+6	-0.4
2028	24	MLB	STL	46%	316	287	56	10	2	5	20	95	6	8	2	195	262	296	558	101	271	30	6	257	55	-16	+1	+0	+3	+9	-0.3
2029	25	MLB	STL	52%	379	345	69	13	2	7	24	112	7	9	2	200	266	310	576	110	272	30	6	262	59	-18	+1	+0	+4	+11	-0.2
2030	26	MLB	STL	54%	419	381	78	14	3	8	27	123	8	10	2	205	272	320	592	115	273	29	6	264	61	-19	+1	+0	+4	+12	-0.1
2027	23	MLB	STL	34%	72	67	12	2	0	1	4	22	1	2	0	179	236	254	490	75	268	31	6	233	37	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
2028	24	MLB	STL	46%	146	133	26	5	1	2	9	44	3	3	1	195	262	293	555	98	271	30	6	243	44	-9	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.3
2029	25	MLB	STL	52%	196	177	36	6	1	4	13	58	4	5	1	203	273	316	590	113	272	30	7	248	48	-12	+1	+0	+2	+6	-0.3
2030	26	MLB	STL	54%	227	206	41	8	1	4	15	67	4	6	1	199	267	306	572	107	273	30	7	250	50	-13	+1	+0	+2	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	641	583	115	21	3	11	41	191	12	16	3	197	264	300	564	103	271	30	6	246	46	-39	+2	+0	+7	+18	-1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	116	21	3	11	42	194	12	16	3	196	264	298	561	102	270	30	6	246	46	-39	+2	+0	+7	+18	-1.2
Career	—			—	2164	1941	358	60	14	31	137	755	68	87	18	184	262	278	540	93	280	35	6	245	46	-133	+10	+0	+23	+61	-3.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	107	18	4	9	41	227	20	26	5	184	261	274	535	91	279	35	6	245	46	-40	+3	+0	+7	+18	-1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	93	80	21	2	2	0	7	31	6	2	1	263	366	338	703	75	429	33	8	328	109	+1	+0	—	—	+3	0.4
2022	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	154	116	31	3	2	2	30	48	8	12	2	267	448	379	827	112	439	31	19	388	155	+10	+2	—	—	+4	1.6
2023	19	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	112	98	21	5	2	0	8	37	5	4	1	214	306	306	612	92	339	33	7	282	74	-3	+0	—	—	+3	0.0
2024	20	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	158	134	34	3	3	6	11	56	11	8	0	254	359	455	814	201	378	35	7	360	134	+6	+2	—	—	+4	1.2
2025	21	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	176	146	32	7	0	2	17	49	10	26	6	219	341	308	649	89	309	28	10	302	89	-2	+3	—	—	+5	0.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	788	13	19	197	261	300	+8	+9	-0.8	-0.4
	/162	664	11	16	197	261	300	+7.1	+7.6	-0.7	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Yancel Guerrero (OGILVIE)	22	25	25	60	35	181/245/262	81	264	2	3	32%	6%	38	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jonathan Guzmán 2022 · A	22	35→40	38→30	52→50	37	178/220/253	75	254	6	16	32%	5%	23	-3.6	167/212/234	67	249	5	11	33%	5%	15	-4.1	147/192/199	52	218	4	9	33%	5%	-6	-2.3
✕Ismael Alcantara 2021 · A	22	44→28	38→45	57→50	41	201/270/281	80	317	5	16	36%	8%	53	-1.5	213/271/338	125	320	13	13	35%	6%	68	-0.5	202/261/313	111	301	12	16	35%	6%	53	-0.8
✕Fabian Pertuz 2023 · A	22	37→33	41→40	49→55	33	185/229/278	92	285	8	9	37%	4%	33	-2.9	172/223/263	91	273	9	12	38%	5%	28	-3.2	143/198/223	80	227	9	13	40%	5%	4	-2.5
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	35	36→40	52→50	40	172/231/233	61	252	4	15	32%	6%	24	-3.6	212/280/299	87	278	9	14	25%	8%	62	-0.9	207/281/290	83	267	10	16	25%	8%	57	-0.6
✕Jordan Sprinkle 2023 · A	22	43	38→30	53→65	39	207/262/284	76	294	6	16	30%	6%	50	-1.8	189/252/255	66	280	5	26	32%	7%	38	-2.6	193/265/244	51	275	3	50	28%	8%	39	-1.4
✕Alfredo Reyes 2017 · A	23	36	36→30	57→55	35	178/218/236	57	272	4	20	35%	5%	17	-4.0	197/250/262	65	326	4	24	38%	6%	38	-2.6	193/254/252	59	326	4	28	39%	7%	34	-1.5
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A	23	34	40→45	53→50	34	176/209/269	93	256	6	9	34%	4%	22	-3.7	215/263/298	83	301	5	9	28%	6%	53	-1.5	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Raul Siri 2018 · A	23	39	38→40	51→50	42	192/251/271	80	265	6	11	29%	7%	42	-2.3	199/264/283	84	349	5	9	41%	7%	51	-1.7	149/237/238	89	307	4	14	47%	8%	28	-0.6
✕Kenedy Corona 2022 · A	22	43→40	39→45	52→55	39	205/259/290	85	285	6	20	29%	5%	50	-1.8	206/268/333	127	294	13	23	33%	7%	66	-0.6	198/265/322	124	280	13	27	32%	7%	58	-0.9
✕Chris Proctor 2019 · A	22	35	37→30	53→45	40	174/226/247	72	249	5	10	31%	6%	24	-3.5	193/238/263	70	268	5	8	28%	6%	33	-2.9	173/221/224	51	251	4	6	31%	6%	14	-1.5
✕Mike Martin 2016 · A	23	40	35→30	52→55	42	183/275/240	57	297	3	13	36%	8%	46	-2.0	217/272/277	60	282	3	17	23%	6%	51	-1.7	231/276/282	51	286	2	23	19%	5%	51	-0.6
✕Dalvy Rosario 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	54→55	42	197/258/274	77	271	6	14	29%	7%	45	-2.1	193/239/285	92	285	9	19	34%	5%	40	-2.4	182/224/268	86	273	9	22	35%	4%	27	-2.1
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→40	50→45	40	187/240/263	77	259	4	8	29%	5%	35	-2.8	204/263/296	92	292	8	10	31%	7%	53	-1.5	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Kyle Nevin 2023 · A	21	41→38	40→45	52→50	38	198/249/295	97	282	6	10	31%	5%	47	-1.9	217/274/320	103	339	9	10	36%	7%	64	-0.8	212/271/309	97	334	9	12	37%	7%	57	-0.7
✕Charcer Burks 2017 · A	22	39→45	39→40	52→50	42	189/255/275	86	267	5	17	30%	7%	45	-2.1	200/273/295	95	285	8	14	30%	8%	57	-1.2	195/270/282	88	278	8	14	30%	8%	51	-1.4
✕Jose Curpa 2022 · A	22	40	36→30	58→55	46	184/272/253	69	286	2	24	33%	10%	47	-1.9	206/292/291	85	310	6	17	32%	9%	65	-0.7	198/299/263	65	296	5	23	31%	10%	59	-0.3
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Grolmann Gonzalez 2010 · A	21	40	38→40	52→55	42	193/255/277	85	272	4	9	29%	7%	45	-2.1	209/265/303	94	303	6	7	31%	6%	56	-1.3	218/266/319	101	307	7	4	30%	6%	58	-0.2
✕Omar Hernandez 2023 · A	21	35	36→30	52→55	34	170/211/232	62	264	3	12	36%	4%	13	-4.3	188/237/249	61	261	4	17	28%	5%	30	-3.1	204/241/253	48	273	4	23	25%	4%	29	-1.3
✕Ramon Beltre 2019 · A	22	44→28	40	49→50	37	216/249/308	91	286	8	7	27%	4%	50	-1.8	183/211/268	85	283	6	6	36%	3%	22	-3.7	151/172/231	79	238	5	6	38%	2%	-8	-4.5