Yancel Guerrero — OGILVIE

Yancel GuerreroSS FCL Cardinals

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 169 lbs ROK HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 80 proj PA

wRC+†45

AVG/OBP/SLG.179 / .245 / .259

PA80

HR1

K%33

BB%6

ISO82

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	93	80	21	2	2	0	7	31	6	2	1	263	366	338	703	75	429	33	8	328	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	154	116	31	3	2	2	30	48	8	12	2	267	448	379	827	112	439	31	19	388	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	112	98	21	5	2	0	8	37	5	4	1	214	306	306	612	92	339	33	7	282	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	158	134	34	3	3	6	11	56	11	8	0	254	359	455	814	201	378	35	7	360	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	176	146	32	7	0	2	17	49	10	26	6	219	341	308	649	89	309	28	10	302	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	93	82	13	1	1	0	5	36	6	2	1	159	258	195	453	37	279	39	5	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	154	124	21	2	1	1	22	59	8	12	2	169	331	226	557	56	296	38	14	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	112	101	14	3	1	0	5	53	5	4	1	139	216	188	404	50	281	47	4	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	158	139	23	2	2	4	6	79	11	8	0	165	256	295	551	129	299	50	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	176	153	21	4	0	1	10	71	10	26	6	137	237	183	420	46	234	40	6	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	93	82	13	1	1	0	5	36	6	2	1	159	258	195	453	37	283	39	5	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	93	80	21	2	2	0	7	31	6	2	1	263	366	338	703	75	429	33	8	328	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	154	124	21	2	1	1	22	59	8	12	2	169	331	226	557	56	312	38	14	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	—	154	116	31	3	2	2	30	48	8	12	2	267	448	379	827	112	439	31	19	388	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	112	101	14	3	1	0	5	53	5	4	1	139	216	188	404	50	286	47	4	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	—	112	98	21	5	2	0	8	37	5	4	1	214	306	306	612	92	339	33	7	282	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	158	139	23	2	2	4	6	79	11	8	0	165	256	295	551	129	328	50	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	—	158	134	34	3	3	6	11	56	11	8	0	254	359	455	814	201	378	35	7	360	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	176	153	21	4	0	1	10	71	10	26	6	137	237	183	420	46	241	40	6	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	—	176	146	32	7	0	2	17	49	10	26	6	219	341	308	649	89	309	28	10	302	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	93	82	13	1	1	0	5	36	6	2	1	159	258	195	453	37	279	39	5	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	154	123	21	2	1	1	22	59	8	12	2	171	331	228	559	57	296	38	14	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	112	101	14	3	1	0	5	53	5	4	1	139	216	188	404	50	281	47	4	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	158	140	23	2	2	4	6	79	11	8	0	164	256	293	549	129	299	50	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	176	154	21	4	0	1	10	71	10	26	6	136	237	182	419	45	234	40	6	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	158	140	23	2	2	4	6	79	11	8	0	164	256	293	549	129	299	50	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	176	154	21	4	0	1	10	71	10	26	6	136	237	182	419	45	234	40	6	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	STL	0%	286	260	47	8	2	3	18	94	6	7	1	180	247	262	509	82	264	33	6	234	45	-19	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	30%	112	102	18	3	1	1	7	36	2	3	0	185	253	275	527	89	266	32	6	242	50	-7	+1	+0	+1	+2	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	30%	34	31	5	1	0	0	2	11	1	1	0	186	253	273	526	88	268	32	6	241	50	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	34	31	5	1	0	0	2	11	1	1	0	161	235	194	429	32	250	32	6	241	37	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	95	19	0	0	38	210	19	19	0	160	234	192	426	32	248	32	6	241	37	-39	+4	+0	+7	+14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	885	774	123	17	7	8	60	360	44	57	10	159	259	230	489	71	279	41	7	223	37	-12	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	568	90	12	5	6	44	264	32	42	7	158	257	229	486	70	278	41	7	223	37	-41	+3	+0	+7	+14	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Yancel Guerrero (OGILVIE)	23	25	25	60	35	179/245/259	81	264	1	2	33%	6%	45	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jordan Sprinkle 2024 · A	23	40	37→30	54→65	40	193/252/263	71	286	6	16	33%	7%	47	-2.5	190/254/251	61	269	4	36	29%	7%	45	-2.7	186/252/236	50	259	3	50	27%	7%	39	-1.8
✕Alfredo Reyes 2017 · A	23	37	36→30	57→55	35	180/221/239	59	277	4	20	36%	5%	28	-3.9	199/250/264	65	325	4	24	37%	6%	46	-2.6	197/255/255	58	327	4	28	38%	7%	43	-1.5
✕Fabian Pertuz 2024 · AA	23	35→36	40	51→55	36	179/227/266	87	258	7	13	33%	5%	38	-3.2	186/239/281	95	297	9	11	38%	6%	46	-2.6	156/208/244	89	265	10	7	43%	5%	24	-2.2
✕Jon Murphy 2013 · A	23	37	38→30	47→50	39	183/234/259	76	262	5	13	31%	5%	39	-3.1	196/249/259	63	303	3	10	34%	6%	45	-2.7	190/244/242	52	297	3	10	35%	6%	35	-1.8
✕Leosdany Molina 2023 · A	23	38→34	37→30	53→50	39	187/239/256	69	262	5	17	30%	5%	40	-3.1	194/243/272	78	270	8	14	30%	5%	45	-2.7	175/222/230	55	236	9	18	29%	5%	26	-2.2
✕Oliver Marmol 2009 · A	23	37	36→40	55	38	180/237/247	66	254	3	19	29%	5%	38	-3.2	186/267/274	88	283	6	13	34%	6%	57	-1.8	158/260/245	87	255	5	10	36%	6%	48	-0.7
✕Karson Simas 2024 · A	23	36→40	35→30	53→60	35	169/231/229	59	300	3	15	42%	6%	31	-3.7	190/248/259	69	299	5	23	36%	6%	45	-2.7	190/247/257	67	289	5	34	34%	6%	40	-1.6
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→30	50→45	40	185/239/261	76	255	4	8	28%	6%	42	-2.9	210/271/302	92	296	8	10	30%	7%	63	-1.4	202/270/282	80	285	9	12	31%	7%	57	-0.4
✕Raul Siri 2018 · A	23	39	38→40	51→50	42	190/248/269	79	262	6	11	29%	7%	47	-2.6	198/262/281	83	345	5	9	41%	6%	55	-1.9	143/230/226	84	291	4	14	47%	8%	31	-0.7
✕Jordan Serena 2016 · A	23	39→44	35→30	55→50	38	181/249/242	60	280	2	18	34%	6%	41	-3.0	192/247/255	63	293	3	10	33%	5%	43	-2.8	184/238/241	57	282	3	9	34%	5%	34	-2.1
✕Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. 2024 · A	23	40→39	38→40	57→60	41	192/257/274	83	287	5	20	33%	7%	51	-2.2	194/250/269	75	290	5	28	33%	6%	47	-2.5	190/245/259	69	282	5	35	33%	6%	41	-2.0
✕Jackson Loftin 2023 · A	23	41→34	41→40	53→65	37	196/266/297	101	314	9	14	38%	6%	61	-1.5	179/254/270	91	258	9	31	32%	7%	51	-2.3	156/237/238	83	221	9	40	32%	7%	35	-2.0
✕Sammy Infante 2024 · A	23	37→26	42→45	50→55	37	183/252/282	99	292	10	15	39%	7%	52	-2.2	200/263/295	95	313	8	15	36%	7%	59	-1.7	164/228/246	82	264	6	18	38%	6%	32	-0.9
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	36	36→40	52→50	41	177/235/240	63	250	4	15	30%	6%	35	-3.4	215/285/296	81	280	8	14	24%	8%	67	-1.1	210/285/284	74	270	8	16	24%	8%	62	-0.6
✕Alex Mooney 2024 · A	22	41→39	39→40	53→55	44	196/263/283	87	261	6	12	26%	6%	56	-1.9	190/263/289	99	265	8	27	30%	7%	58	-1.7	182/255/278	96	255	8	30	30%	7%	51	-1.8
✕Casio Grider 2011 · A	23	41→39	38→40	55	32	195/242/272	76	303	5	19	36%	4%	45	-2.7	195/253/277	82	290	3	20	32%	5%	51	-2.3	185/241/264	79	281	5	27	34%	5%	40	-1.4
✕Mike Martin 2016 · A	23	40	35→30	52→55	41	182/272/238	56	294	3	13	36%	8%	51	-2.3	219/275/280	61	286	3	17	23%	6%	59	-1.7	236/283/288	52	293	2	23	19%	5%	60	-0.6
✕Jack Winkler 2022 · A	23	40→41	38→40	48→55	40	193/248/273	79	268	4	10	28%	6%	47	-2.5	205/268/294	89	269	7	14	25%	6%	60	-1.6	190/257/276	86	252	7	18	26%	6%	49	-1.7
✕Osmy Gregorio 2021 · A	23	36→45	38→30	51→50	38	179/234/256	76	265	7	12	34%	6%	38	-3.2	193/235/263	70	288	4	12	33%	5%	40	-3.1	193/233/255	62	281	3	13	31%	5%	34	-1.7
✕Mariel Bautista 2021 · A	23	41→36	42→40	49→50	39	203/253/300	97	265	10	15	27%	5%	56	-1.9	210/256/331	121	304	12	11	34%	5%	64	-1.3	185/218/329	144	263	16	11	36%	3%	49	-0.6