Samuel Fabian

P FCL Cardinals

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 177 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	20	ROKSTL	16	0	18	10.00	5.49	24.8%	21.9%	—	K 16.8% · BB 27.4% · FIP 6.61
2024	21	ROKSTL	21	0	36	1.51	2.71	29.1%	7.4%	—	K 19.8% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.21
2025	22	MIX2 levels	17	1	36	6.94	4.01	19.1%	16.4%	—	K 13.9% · BB 16.4% · FIP 4.49
2027PROJ	24	MLBSTL	17	0	18	4.92	4.92	21.2%	12.7%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSTL	13	0	14	4.78	4.72	21.8%	11.6%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsFrancisco Del Rosario (age 25) · Harrison Cohen (age 24) · Cole Gordon (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%21.2%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP18

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Red	14	2	18	97	10	21	1	14%	1.3	7.0%	27.1%	-20.1%	1.4%	9.68	6.68	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Red	14	2	18	97	10	21	1	14%	1.3	10.3%	21.6%	-11.3%	1.0%	9.68	6.27	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	14	0	21	100	16	17	0	0%	1.5	10.9%	21.3%	-10.4%	0.0%	6.53	4.87	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	14	0	21	100	16	17	0	0%	1.5	16.0%	17.0%	-1.0%	0.0%	6.53	4.02	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	16	0	18	105	26	23	2	0%	1.1	16.8%	27.4%	-10.5%	2.7%	10.00	6.61	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	16	0	18	105	26	23	2	0%	1.1	24.8%	21.9%	2.9%	1.9%	10.00	5.49	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	21	0	36	148	43	11	3	0%	1.7	19.8%	9.3%	10.5%	2.9%	1.51	4.21	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	21	0	36	148	43	11	3	0%	1.7	19.8%	9.3%	10.5%	2.9%	1.51	4.21	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	21	0	36	148	43	11	3	0%	1.7	29.1%	7.4%	21.6%	2.0%	1.51	2.71	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	1	36	183	35	30	1	6%	2.1	13.9%	16.4%	-2.5%	0.9%	6.94	4.49	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	1	36	183	35	30	1	6%	2.1	13.9%	16.4%	-2.5%	0.9%	6.94	4.49	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	1	36	183	35	30	1	6%	2.1	19.1%	16.4%	2.7%	0.5%	6.94	4.01	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	STL	17	0	18	76	16	10	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.7%	8.5%	3.0%	4.92	4.92	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	32	0	33	140	31	16	4	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.6%	10.3%	2.9%	4.78	4.72	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	13	0	14	59	13	7	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.6%	10.3%	2.9%	4.78	4.72	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	60	13	7	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.6%	10.3%	2.9%	4.78	4.34	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	99	28	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.6%	10.3%	2.9%	4.78	4.34	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		82	3	128	633	90	120	10	4%	1.6	14.2%	19.0%	-4.7%	1.6%	6.17	5.17	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		128	5	200	986	140	187	16	4%	1.6	14.2%	19.0%	-4.7%	1.6%	6.17	5.17	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Fabian (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	21.2%	12.7%	3.0%	—	4.72	21.8%	10.3%	33	-0.20	—	—	—
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	90
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	90
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	89
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	89
Michael Bowden R 2011 · 4.93 FIP	24	SU	4.93	18.9%	12.2%	3.4%	.271	4.22	17.1%	8.1%	77	-0.71	3.21	269	87
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	87
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	87
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	87
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	87
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	86
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	86
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	86
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	86
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	86
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	85
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	85
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	85
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	85
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	85
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	21.6%	12.0%	1.14	4.83
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44