Kai Wynyard

P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 176 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX3 levels	26	51	3.02	3.46	21.2%	12.9%	—	K 15.2% · BB 14.2% · FIP 3.97
2025	23	MIX2 levels	29	59	3.94	4.06	20.2%	12.4%	—	K 15.7% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.95
2026	24	MIX2 levels	37	54	5.83	5.47	28.0%	11.0%	—	K 21.8% · BB 13.2% · FIP 7.18
2027PROJ	25	MLBTEX	67	70	5.78	5.78	18.4%	14.5%	-0.9
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBTEX	29	30	5.62	5.62	19.1%	13.9%	-0.4
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBTEX	41	43	5.54	5.56	19.4%	13.6%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJosh Harlow (age 23) · Nick Ernst (age 25) · Stephen Johnson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.78

FIP5.78

K%18.4%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%3.9%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	15	5	28	143	40	30	1	33%	1.9	19.0%	26.2%	-7.2%	1.0%	5.40	5.35	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	15	5	28	143	40	30	1	33%	1.9	28.0%	21.0%	7.0%	0.7%	5.40	3.91	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	40	172	51	13	4	0%	2.1	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	3.3%	4.50	4.27	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	40	172	51	13	4	0%	2.1	29.7%	7.6%	22.1%	2.3%	4.50	2.83	—
2023	21	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	24	0	42	169	43	16	1	0%	1.7	18.8%	11.2%	7.7%	0.7%	2.38	3.32	—
2023	21	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	24	0	42	169	43	16	1	0%	1.7	25.4%	9.5%	16.0%	0.6%	2.38	2.50	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	51	217	46	28	2	0%	1.9	15.2%	14.2%	1.0%	0.6%	3.02	3.97	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	51	217	46	28	2	0%	1.9	15.2%	14.2%	1.0%	0.6%	3.02	3.97	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	0	51	217	46	28	2	0%	1.9	21.2%	12.9%	8.3%	0.9%	3.02	3.46	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	59	258	52	32	5	0%	2.0	15.7%	12.2%	3.5%	3.0%	3.94	4.95	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	59	258	52	32	5	0%	2.0	15.7%	12.2%	3.5%	3.0%	3.94	4.95	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	59	258	52	32	5	0%	2.0	20.2%	12.4%	7.8%	1.9%	3.94	4.06	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	54	236	66	26	14	0%	1.5	21.8%	13.2%	8.6%	7.7%	5.83	7.18	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	54	236	66	26	14	0%	1.5	21.8%	13.2%	8.6%	7.7%	5.83	7.18	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	54	236	66	26	14	0%	1.5	28.0%	11.0%	16.9%	5.9%	5.83	5.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TEX	67	0	70	296	54	43	11	0%	1.0	18.4%	14.5%	3.9%	3.7%	5.78	5.78	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	67	0	70	296	56	41	11	0%	1.0	19.1%	13.9%	5.2%	3.6%	5.62	5.62	-0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	66	0	69	291	56	40	11	0%	1.0	19.4%	13.6%	5.8%	3.6%	5.54	5.56	-0.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	TEX	64	0	67	282	55	38	10	0%	1.0	19.5%	13.6%	5.9%	3.7%	5.54	5.58	-0.8
2031	29	MLB MLE	TEX	61	0	64	270	52	37	10	0%	1.0	19.3%	13.7%	5.7%	3.8%	5.61	5.68	-0.8
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	29	0	30	127	24	18	5	0%	1.0	19.1%	13.9%	5.2%	3.6%	5.62	5.62	-0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	41	0	43	182	35	25	7	0%	1.0	19.4%	13.6%	5.8%	3.6%	5.54	5.56	-0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	TEX	48	0	50	211	41	29	8	0%	1.0	19.5%	13.6%	5.9%	3.7%	5.54	5.58	-0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	TEX	50	0	52	220	42	30	8	0%	1.0	19.3%	13.7%	5.7%	3.8%	5.61	5.68	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		167	0	176	742	144	101	27	0%	1.1	19.3%	13.7%	5.7%	3.7%	5.57	5.23	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	115	31	0%	1.1	19.3%	13.7%	5.7%	3.7%	5.57	5.23	-1.6
Career	—	MLE		150	5	274	1195	220	166	36	3%	1.8	18.4%	13.9%	4.6%	3.0%	4.14	4.93	-3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	4	200	872	161	121	26	3%	1.8	18.4%	13.9%	4.6%	3.0%	4.14	4.93	-2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kai Wynyard (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.78	18.4%	14.5%	3.7%	—	5.59	19.3%	5.6%	206	-0.19	—	—	—
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	88
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	88
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	87
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	86
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	85
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	85
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	85
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	85
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	84
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	84
Tanner Jacobson R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	24	SU	5.22	20.9%	12.9%	4.1%	.261	4.47	21.4%	2.1%	51	-0.75	4.09	168	83
Rhiner Cruz R 2012 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	18.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.335	4.81	10.2%	-1.0%	21	+0.01	3.21	127	83
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	83
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	83
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	83
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	83
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	83
Leon Hunter Jr. R 2022 · 5.45 FIP	25	SU	5.45	20.0%	14.4%	4.0%	.287	4.33	25.5%	13.6%	58	-1.12	1.94	183	83
Will Geerdes R 2024 · 5.57 FIP	24	SU	5.57	16.3%	12.2%	4.2%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	121	83
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	19.1%	13.8%	1.43	5.62
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*