Joe Rock
P
Durham Bulls
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 26
LHP
6'6" / 220 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.0 · 2027
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
xFIP2.84
SIERA2.35
K%19.9%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%11.5%
IP109
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2027
K†4550
FB (67%)
CH (7%)
SI (47%)
SL (26%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 4 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 11 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.12 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 22 | 22 | 116 | 492 | 120 | 49 | 12 | 18.5% | 11.4% | 2.0% | 4.82 | 4.10 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 20 | 20 | 93 | 408 | 112 | 34 | 14 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 3.8% | 4.66 | 4.46 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 27 | 23 | 140 | 611 | 132 | 35 | 17 | 19.0% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 3.83 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 35 | 15 | 104 | 453 | 99 | 41 | 17 | 18.5% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 5.00 | 4.42 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 4 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 13.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TB | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 37 | 16 | 6 | 19.9% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | TB | — | — | 47 | 206 | 42 | 23 | 7 | 20.2% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 5.15 | 4.19 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 112 | 473 | 95 | 40 | 14 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 112 | 475 | 96 | 40 | 14 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.50 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 94 | 39 | 14 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.53 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 107 | 450 | 90 | 38 | 14 | 20.0% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.56 | 4.59 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 103 | 434 | 86 | 37 | 14 | 19.8% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.66 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 99 | 417 | 81 | 37 | 14 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.75 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 94 | 399 | 77 | 36 | 13 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.85 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | TB | 16 | 16 | 90 | 379 | 71 | 35 | 13 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 4.89 | 4.96 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | TB | 15 | 15 | 84 | 357 | 66 | 34 | 13 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 5.00 | 5.08 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 67 | 29 | 12 | 20.1% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 4.97 | 4.94 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 37 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 61 | 28 | 12 | 19.6% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 5.04 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 112 | 82 | 464 | 2015 | 397 | 182 | 58 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.15 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 35 | 200 | 869 | 171 | 79 | 25 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.15 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Rock (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 19.9% | 8.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.51 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 334 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Zac Rosscup L 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 80 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 80 |
| Ian Krol L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.74 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 3.9% | .298 | 3.44 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 102 | -1.30 | 2.81 | 344 | 79 |
| Daniel Gibson L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 18.6% | 8.7% | 2.0% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 159 | 79 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .197 | 4.65 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.46 | 4.19 | 133 | 78 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 78 |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 78 |
| Tyler Holton L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.59 | 21.7% | 16.8% | 258 | -0.71 | 2.93 | 367 | 77 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 77 |
| Henry Garcia L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.45 | 12.9% | 7.0% | 2.8% | .246 | 4.68 | 9.2% | -1.0% | 95 | +0.23 | 4.45 | 114 | 77 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.85 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 3.6% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.39 | 3.46 | 145 | 77 |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.05 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 4.9% | .311 | 4.17 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 169 | -0.88 | 3.48 | 311 | 76 |
| Nolan Becker L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 13.9% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .313 | 5.48 | 18.9% | 14.6% | 13 | +1.32 | 3.71 | 105 | 76 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.47 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.20 | 3.49 | 165 | 75 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 75 |
| Triston Polley L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 17.8% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .331 | 4.53 | 17.4% | -0.3% | 22 | +0.38 | 4.15 | 151 | 75 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.98 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | 5.21 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.23 | 3.98 | 118 | 75 |
| Joe Jacques L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.76 | 21.8% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .316 | 3.72 | 17.4% | 8.7% | 145 | -0.04 | 3.01 | 332 | 75 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 75 |
| Diego Barrera L 2025 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.67 | 18.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 111 | 74 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2031
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $8M | +$7M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $3M | +1.0 | $8M | +$6M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $5M | +1.0 | $9M | +$4M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $6M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $13M | $31M | +$18M | ||