Joe Rock — OGILVIE

Joe Rock P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 26 LHP 6'6" / 220 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98107vR 115

ERA4.29

FIP4.29

K%18.6%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4045

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p6327.4%

p5222.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.390

FB (67%)

CH (7%)

SI (47%)

SL (26%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	4	2	8	29	11	1	0	50%	2.0	37.9%	3.4%	34.5%	0.0%	1.12	0.33	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	4	2	8	29	11	1	0	50%	2.0	37.9%	3.4%	34.5%	0.0%	1.12	0.73	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	116	492	120	49	12	100%	5.3	18.5%	11.4%	7.1%	2.1%	4.82	4.13	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	116	492	120	49	12	100%	5.3	24.4%	10.0%	14.4%	2.4%	4.82	3.64	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	93	408	112	34	14	100%	4.6	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	3.8%	4.66	4.44	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	93	408	112	34	14	100%	4.6	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	3.8%	4.66	4.44	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	93	408	112	34	14	100%	4.6	27.5%	8.3%	19.1%	3.4%	4.66	3.75	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	27	23	140	611	132	35	17	85%	5.2	17.9%	5.2%	12.8%	2.9%	4.58	3.82	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	27	23	140	611	132	35	17	85%	5.2	17.9%	5.2%	12.8%	2.9%	4.58	3.82	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	27	23	140	611	132	35	17	85%	5.2	21.6%	5.7%	15.9%	2.8%	4.58	3.54	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	15	104	453	99	41	17	43%	3.0	17.5%	8.4%	9.1%	3.1%	5.00	4.36	+0.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	15	104	453	99	41	17	43%	3.0	17.5%	8.4%	9.1%	3.1%	5.00	4.36	+0.2
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	15	104	453	99	41	17	43%	3.0	21.9%	9.1%	12.8%	3.8%	5.00	4.50	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			7	0	18	88	23	13	1	0%	2.6	26.1%	14.8%	11.4%	1.1%	3.00	3.43	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	35	6	52	257	71	48	6	17%	1.5	23.7%	17.2%	6.5%	2.6%	5.16	4.69	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	35	6	52	257	71	48	6	17%	1.5	23.7%	17.2%	6.5%	2.6%	5.16	4.69	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	CWS	31	6	42	204	59	37	6	19%	1.4	28.9%	18.1%	10.8%	2.9%	5.57	4.57	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	CWS	4	0	10	53	12	11	0	0%	2.6	22.6%	20.8%	1.9%	0.0%	3.48	3.82	+0.1
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	CWS	4	0	10	53	12	11	0	0%	2.6	22.6%	20.8%	1.9%	0.0%	3.48	3.82	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CWS	6	0	6	27	5	2	1	0%	1.1	18.6%	8.7%	9.8%	3.0%	4.29	4.29	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	CWS	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	18.6%	8.7%	9.8%	3.0%	4.29	4.29	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	59	284	76	50	7	—	—	26.8%	17.7%	9.0%	2.4%	5.07	4.65	-0.1
FULL	26	MLB A+C	CWS	—	—	17	70	76	50	7	—	—	108.1%	71.7%	36.5%	9.7%	17.86	8.36	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CWS	122	0	128	540	100	50	15	0%	1.0	18.6%	9.3%	9.3%	2.8%	4.61	4.63	-0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	122	0	128	540	101	50	16	0%	1.0	18.8%	9.3%	9.4%	2.9%	4.64	4.68	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	116	0	122	515	96	49	16	0%	1.1	18.7%	9.5%	9.2%	3.1%	4.72	4.79	-0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	CWS	109	0	115	484	89	47	16	0%	1.1	18.4%	9.7%	8.7%	3.3%	4.86	4.95	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	CWS	115	0	121	511	95	48	14	0%	1.1	18.6%	9.3%	9.3%	2.8%	4.61	4.63	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	115	0	121	511	96	48	15	0%	1.1	18.8%	9.3%	9.4%	2.9%	4.64	4.68	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	110	0	116	490	91	46	15	0%	1.1	18.7%	9.5%	9.2%	3.1%	4.72	4.79	-0.3
2030	30	MLB CTX	CWS	104	0	109	460	85	45	15	0%	1.0	18.4%	9.7%	8.7%	3.3%	4.86	4.95	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		458	0	492	2089	396	202	61	0%	1.1	18.9%	9.7%	9.3%	2.9%	4.64	4.34	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		186	0	200	849	161	82	25	0%	1.1	18.9%	9.7%	9.3%	2.9%	4.64	4.34	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		143	88	513	2250	442	207	64	62%	3.6	19.6%	9.2%	10.4%	2.8%	4.74	4.17	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	34	200	878	172	81	25	62%	3.6	19.6%	9.2%	10.4%	2.8%	4.74	4.17	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Rock (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	17.5%	7.7%	3.0%	—	4.70	18.7%	9.3%	378	+0.07	—	—	—
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	75
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	73
Jordan Carr L 2023 · 3.49 FIP	26	SW	3.49	17.2%	8.5%	1.4%	.270	5.16	12.7%	2.3%	137	+1.67	3.49	269	70
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	68
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	67
Chaz Hebert L 2017 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP-	4.46	15.6%	8.7%	2.9%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	167	67
Rito Lugo L 2022 · 4.04 FIP	26	SW	4.04	18.3%	7.3%	2.8%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	176	66
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	65
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	65
Kohl Drake L 2023 · 4.81 FIP	23	SW	4.81	16.3%	11.9%	2.9%	.391	4.32	21.8%	12.5%	292	-0.49	3.32	327	65
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	64
Jake Drehoff L 2017 · 5.21 FIP	25	SW	5.21	16.8%	9.0%	4.4%	.418	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	153	64
Colten Schmidt L 2023 · 5.23 FIP	27	SW	5.23	14.4%	8.0%	4.2%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	163	64
Austin Hamilton L 2019 · 4.02 FIP	25	SW	4.02	17.3%	7.9%	2.5%	.374	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	135	64
Nate Fisher L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	26	SW	4.36	18.6%	10.0%	2.9%	.290	5.52	14.6%	5.5%	104	+1.16	1.42	229	63
Zac Lowther L 2022 · 5.67 FIP	26	SP-	5.67	17.8%	10.6%	5.0%	.436	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	375	63
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	63
Drake Britton L 2015 · 4.69 FIP	26	SW	4.69	11.1%	9.7%	2.4%	.268	4.79	8.0%	-2.2%	41	+0.10	4.69	125	63
Brian Fitzpatrick L 2023 · 3.50 FIP	23	SP-	3.50	14.5%	12.8%	0.0%	.312	3.28	21.3%	11.9%	139	-0.22	1.57	161	63
Samuel Strickland L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	24	SW	4.87	19.5%	7.3%	4.5%	.337	3.53	20.1%	14.4%	148	-1.34	2.91	292	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	112	18.5%	9.2%	1.16	4.69
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78