Joe Rock

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 27 LHP 6'6" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	AAATB	27	23	140	4.58	3.54	21.6%	5.7%	—	K 18.6% · BB 5.2% · FIP 3.77
2025	25	MIX2 levels	35	15	104	5.00	4.50	21.9%	9.1%	0.1	K 18.1% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.31
2026	26	MIX2 levels	38	6	54	5.47	4.66	27.2%	19.0%	-0.1	K 24.1% · BB 17.6% · FIP 4.65
2027PROJ	27	MLBOAK	8	8	48	4.75	4.91	20.4%	12.7%	0.3
2028PROJ80% MLB	28	MLBOAK	7	7	41	4.83	4.93	20.6%	12.5%	0.2
2029PROJ84% MLB	29	MLBOAK	6	6	36	4.94	5.05	20.2%	12.5%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%45

FB Velo34

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsBrad Mills (age 26) · Dan Meyer (age 27) · Mark Manfredi Sr. (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.75

FIP4.91

K%20.4%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%7.7%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p6127.0%

p4521.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.401

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	4	2	8	29	11	1	0	50%	2.0	37.9%	3.4%	34.5%	0.0%	1.12	0.33	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	4	2	8	29	11	1	0	50%	2.0	37.9%	3.4%	34.5%	0.0%	1.12	0.73	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	116	492	120	49	12	100%	5.3	18.5%	11.4%	7.1%	2.1%	4.82	4.13	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	116	492	120	49	12	100%	5.3	24.4%	10.0%	14.4%	2.4%	4.82	3.64	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	93	408	112	34	14	100%	4.6	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	3.8%	4.66	4.44	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	93	408	112	34	14	100%	4.6	27.5%	8.3%	19.1%	3.4%	4.66	3.75	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	27	23	140	611	132	35	17	85%	5.2	18.6%	5.2%	13.4%	2.9%	4.58	3.77	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	27	23	140	611	132	35	17	85%	5.2	18.6%	5.2%	13.4%	2.9%	4.58	3.77	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	27	23	140	611	132	35	17	85%	5.2	21.6%	5.7%	15.9%	2.8%	4.58	3.54	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	15	104	453	99	41	17	43%	3.0	18.1%	8.4%	9.7%	3.1%	5.00	4.31	+0.3
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	15	104	453	99	41	17	43%	3.0	18.1%	8.4%	9.7%	3.1%	5.00	4.31	+0.3
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	15	104	453	99	41	17	43%	3.0	21.9%	9.1%	12.8%	3.8%	5.00	4.50	+0.1
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	6	54	268	73	51	6	16%	1.4	24.1%	17.6%	6.4%	2.5%	5.47	4.65	-0.1
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	6	54	268	73	51	6	16%	1.4	24.1%	17.6%	6.4%	2.5%	5.47	4.65	-0.1
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	6	54	268	73	51	6	16%	1.4	27.2%	19.0%	8.2%	2.2%	5.47	4.66	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	0	18	91	23	15	1	0%	2.2	25.3%	16.5%	8.8%	1.1%	4.00	3.77	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	OAK	8	8	48	203	41	26	6	100%	6.0	20.4%	12.7%	7.7%	2.8%	4.75	4.91	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	OAK	9	9	51	217	45	27	6	100%	5.7	20.6%	12.5%	8.1%	2.9%	4.83	4.93	+0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	OAK	7	7	43	181	37	23	6	100%	6.1	20.2%	12.5%	7.7%	3.1%	4.94	5.05	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	41	173	36	22	5	100%	5.9	20.6%	12.5%	8.1%	2.9%	4.83	4.93	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	OAK	6	6	36	152	31	19	5	100%	6.0	20.2%	12.5%	7.7%	3.1%	4.94	5.05	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		21	13	95	416	89	56	11	62%	4.5	21.5%	13.4%	8.1%	2.6%	4.71	4.40	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	27	200	876	187	118	23	62%	4.6	21.5%	13.4%	8.1%	2.6%	4.71	4.40	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		146	88	515	2261	452	210	64	60%	3.5	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	2.8%	4.77	4.14	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	34	200	879	176	82	25	60%	3.5	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	2.8%	4.77	4.14	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 44 IPFIP 4.49 → 4.76 (+0.27)K% 28.8% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.77%	—	×0.860	24.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.92%	—	×0.900	16.13%
HR / BF /BF	2.83%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.11%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.49 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 97 IPFIP 4.61 → 4.31 (−0.30)K% 21.1% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.05%	—	×0.860	18.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.33%	—	×0.900	8.40%
HR / BF /BF	3.83%	÷1.380	×1.100	3.05%

Result: FIP 4.61 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAADurham Bulls · 140 IPFIP 3.53 → 3.77 (+0.24)K% 21.6% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.60%	—	×0.860	18.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.73%	—	×0.900	5.16%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.061	×1.100	2.88%

Result: FIP 3.53 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAHartford Yard Goats · 90 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.44 (+0.82)K% 27.3% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.34%	—	×0.810	22.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.10%	—	×1.100	8.91%
HR / BF /BF	3.29%	÷1.040	×1.200	3.80%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Spokane Indians · 108 IPFIP 3.54 → 4.13 (+0.59)K% 24.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.01%	—	×0.770	18.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.91%	—	×1.150	11.40%
HR / BF /BF	2.20%	÷1.316	×1.250	2.09%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 163).

Result: FIP 3.54 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAHartford Yard Goats · 8 IPFIP 4.88 → 6.08 (+1.20)K% 28.9% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.95%	—	×0.810	23.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.100	11.58%
HR / BF /BF	5.26%	÷0.992	×1.200	6.36%

Result: FIP 4.88 → 6.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Rockies · 8 IPFIP 0.33 → 1.47 (+1.13)K% 37.9% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.93%	—	×0.680	25.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.45%	—	×1.250	4.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.029	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 0.33 → 1.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Rock (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	20.4%	12.7%	2.8%	—	4.98	20.4%	7.9%	94	+0.07	—	—	—
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	71
Dan Meyer L 2008 · 5.66 FIP	27	SW	5.66	15.2%	10.6%	4.5%	.315	3.73	23.1%	15.2%	58	-1.93	3.73	112	71
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	69
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	66
Eric Stults L 2007 · 4.28 FIP	27	SW	4.28	16.8%	8.4%	2.8%	.349	4.14	16.2%	7.2%	89	-0.14	3.50	773	66
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	65
Cam Vieaux L 2021 · 5.10 FIP	27	SP-	5.10	18.0%	11.8%	3.7%	.288	4.45	20.0%	10.8%	122	-0.65	4.20	620	64
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	63
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	63
Matt Tracy L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	27	SW	3.89	13.8%	8.3%	1.7%	.328	4.22	15.3%	5.5%	129	+0.33	3.24	298	63
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	154	63
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	63
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	63
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	62
Matt Whitehouse L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	27	SW	4.55	17.0%	12.8%	2.3%	.308	4.07	20.1%	9.2%	81	-0.48	3.37	353	62
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	62
Carlos Teller L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP-	3.75	13.8%	10.9%	0.8%	.329	4.75	13.3%	3.1%	187	+1.00	3.75	333	62
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	62
Brandon Knarr L 2023 · 5.04 FIP	25	SP-	5.04	24.8%	16.0%	3.7%	.450	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	256	62
Phil Dumatrait L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	27	SP-	4.39	14.8%	11.4%	2.0%	.298	5.73	13.9%	2.0%	54	+1.34	4.39	151	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	21.0%	13.1%	1.05	4.74
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27