Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 32 | 2 | 54 | 288 | 59 | 56 | 7 | 6% | 1.7 | 15.2% | 22.9% | -7.8% | 3.7% | 10.90 | 6.77 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 32 | 2 | 54 | 288 | 59 | 56 | 7 | 6% | 1.7 | 20.5% | 19.4% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 10.90 | 5.73 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 33 | 157 | 30 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 13.1% | 15.8% | -2.6% | 0.9% | 5.67 | 4.50 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 33 | 157 | 30 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.1% | 16.6% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 5.67 | 4.42 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 64 | 278 | 65 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.6% | 12.1% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 3.39 | 4.23 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 64 | 278 | 65 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.4% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 1.8% | 3.39 | 3.45 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 29 | 17 | 80 | 397 | 81 | 67 | 9 | 59% | 2.7 | 16.5% | 18.6% | -2.0% | 1.5% | 7.68 | 4.90 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 29 | 17 | 80 | 397 | 81 | 67 | 9 | 59% | 2.7 | 20.4% | 16.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 7.68 | 5.06 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 0 | 46 | 233 | 48 | 52 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.6% | 27.9% | -11.2% | 2.4% | 9.66 | 6.57 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 0 | 46 | 233 | 48 | 52 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.6% | 22.3% | -1.7% | 2.1% | 9.66 | 5.84 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 24 | 0 | 23 | 131 | 26 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 21.0% | -4.9% | 2.7% | 10.17 | 5.91 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 31 | 0 | 33 | 138 | 28 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 16.1% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 5.26 | 5.26 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 16.1% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 5.26 | 5.26 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 56 | 269 | 54 | 47 | 7 | — | — | 20.0% | 17.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 7.29 | 5.53 | -0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.1% | 16.1% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 5.26 | 4.88 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 29 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 14.0% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 5.03 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 30 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 13.6% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 4.92 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 31 | 0 | 32 | 137 | 29 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 13.5% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.89 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 14.0% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 5.03 | 4.94 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 20 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 13.6% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 4.92 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 23 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 13.5% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.89 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 59 | 0 | 62 | 264 | 56 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 13.7% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 4.94 | 4.52 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 179 | 115 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 13.7% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 4.94 | 4.52 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 191 | 19 | 299 | 1484 | 239 | 291 | 33 | 10% | 1.6 | 16.1% | 19.6% | -3.5% | 2.2% | 7.62 | 5.45 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 128 | 13 | 200 | 993 | 160 | 194 | 22 | 10% | 1.6 | 16.1% | 19.6% | -3.5% | 2.2% | 7.62 | 5.45 | -0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Edwin Núñez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.26 | 20.1% | 16.1% | 2.6% | — | 4.90 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 98 | -0.36 | — | — | — |
| Kevin Kopps R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 90 |
| Grayson Thurman R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.38 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 4.85 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 87 | +0.47 | 4.38 | 132 | 90 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 88 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.18 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 1.9% | .314 | 4.59 | 18.2% | 2.0% | 53 | +0.41 | 4.18 | 103 | 88 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.50 | 19.8% | 15.3% | 2.1% | .283 | 4.49 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 139 | -0.01 | 3.34 | 252 | 88 |
| Billy Seidl R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.87 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 87 |
| Cayne Ueckert R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.26 | 17.5% | 14.9% | 1.4% | .306 | 5.89 | 22.7% | 5.0% | 78 | +1.63 | 3.88 | 205 | 86 |
| Antonio Knowles R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.9% | 15.1% | 2.3% | .250 | 3.13 | 21.9% | 13.9% | 61 | -1.38 | 2.73 | 218 | 86 |
| Zane Russell R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.19 | 22.7% | 18.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 5.10 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 71 | -0.09 | 4.28 | 108 | 86 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.62 | 17.4% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .263 | 4.25 | 18.6% | 4.4% | 59 | -1.37 | 3.67 | 108 | 85 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.92 | 19.6% | 18.4% | 2.1% | .305 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 184 | -0.36 | 3.34 | 334 | 85 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.61 | 21.4% | 22.3% | 2.7% | .278 | 5.16 | 19.4% | 2.8% | 102 | -0.45 | 3.73 | 203 | 85 |
| Tanner Duncan R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.45 | 17.5% | 14.8% | 3.6% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 123 | 85 |
| Marc Brakeman R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.71 | 18.3% | 13.7% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 156 | 85 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 85 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2026 · 5.57 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.57 | 21.4% | 15.3% | 4.2% | .247 | 4.99 | 21.9% | 9.9% | 115 | -0.58 | 4.95 | 183 | 85 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 85 |
| Pat Light R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 2.1% | .270 | 4.39 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 110 | +0.05 | 4.11 | 172 | 84 |
| Sal Biasi R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.19 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.3% | .295 | 7.85 | 15.3% | -0.2% | 23 | +2.66 | 4.68 | 188 | 84 |
| LJ McDonough R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.53 | 22.6% | 16.7% | 2.2% | .385 | 4.74 | 20.7% | 5.1% | 76 | +0.21 | 4.32 | 114 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 33 | 20.9% | 14.3% | 1.03 | 5.02 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |