Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 8 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.47 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 8 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.46 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 37 | 0 | 44 | 209 | 44 | 37 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.2% | 20.4% | -4.1% | 1.7% | 5.11 | 5.23 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Hub City Spartanburgers | 37 | 0 | 44 | 209 | 44 | 37 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.1% | 17.7% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 5.11 | 4.80 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 26 | 0 | 38 | 178 | 38 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.7% | 12.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.21 | 6.20 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TEX | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 38 | 51 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.0% | 21.0% | -5.1% | 2.8% | 6.33 | 6.33 | -1.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.0% | 21.0% | -5.1% | 2.8% | 6.33 | 6.33 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 95 | 419 | 76 | 72 | 13 | — | — | 18.2% | 17.1% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 6.28 | 6.28 | -1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 16.0% | 21.0% | -5.1% | 2.8% | 6.33 | 5.95 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 42 | 45 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 18.3% | -1.0% | 2.8% | 5.98 | 5.88 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 44 | 43 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 17.6% | 0.4% | 2.8% | 5.79 | 5.74 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 44 | 41 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 17.3% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 5.71 | 5.70 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 18 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 18.3% | -1.0% | 2.8% | 5.98 | 5.88 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 29 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 17.6% | 0.4% | 2.8% | 5.79 | 5.74 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 34 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 17.3% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 5.71 | 5.70 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 102 | 0 | 108 | 454 | 81 | 80 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 17.6% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 5.80 | 5.38 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 151 | 149 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 17.6% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 5.80 | 5.38 | +0.1 | ||
| Career | — | 71 | 0 | 91 | 427 | 76 | 71 | 13 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.7% | 16.7% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 5.04 | 5.37 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 156 | 0 | 200 | 938 | 166 | 157 | 28 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.7% | 16.7% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 5.04 | 5.37 | +0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Anthony Susac (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.33 | 16.0% | 21.0% | 2.8% | — | 5.77 | 17.9% | 0.1% | 172 | -0.56 | — | — | — |
| Josh Harlow R 2026 · 5.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.71 | 17.1% | 21.3% | 2.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.52 | 107 | 93 |
| CJ Weins R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.54 | 17.8% | 23.0% | 1.9% | .302 | 5.65 | 15.5% | 0.6% | 32 | +0.11 | 4.42 | 113 | 90 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.27 | 15.5% | 17.2% | 2.4% | .237 | 5.45 | 13.6% | -1.7% | 68 | +0.18 | 5.27 | 124 | 88 |
| Jacob Morris R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.72 | 18.0% | 19.6% | 3.0% | .218 | 4.72 | 18.7% | -2.4% | 46 | -1.00 | 4.72 | 102 | 86 |
| Kelvin Vasquez R 2026 · 6.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 6.27 | 15.0% | 23.2% | 2.7% | .247 | 5.23 | 14.5% | -0.2% | 48 | -1.04 | 4.80 | 180 | 86 |
| Luke Savage R 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.70 | 15.0% | 17.7% | 3.0% | .358 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 117 | 85 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 85 |
| Yordy Cabrera R 2027 · 5.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.43 | 15.8% | 17.2% | 2.7% | .321 | 4.31 | 13.7% | 2.7% | 140 | -1.12 | 3.48 | 159 | 85 |
| Leandro Linares R 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.59 | 16.2% | 22.0% | 2.0% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.93 | 134 | 85 |
| Jairo Beras R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.32 | 15.0% | 20.3% | 1.7% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 110 | 85 |
| Jake Gozzo R 2026 · 7.15 FIP | 24 | SU | 7.15 | 14.3% | 30.2% | 2.6% | .200 | 5.29 | 15.8% | -0.7% | 129 | -1.86 | 4.29 | 162 | 84 |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.36 | 17.8% | 19.9% | 2.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 103 | 84 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.65 | 15.1% | 20.3% | 2.3% | .357 | 4.02 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 143 | -1.63 | 3.42 | 161 | 83 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.61 | 21.4% | 22.3% | 2.7% | .278 | 5.16 | 19.4% | 2.8% | 102 | -0.45 | 3.73 | 203 | 83 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.62 | 17.4% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .263 | 4.25 | 18.6% | 4.4% | 59 | -1.37 | 3.67 | 108 | 82 |
| Ryan Vanderhei R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.26 | 14.6% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .287 | 3.56 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 39 | -1.70 | 3.56 | 130 | 82 |
| Darvin Garcia R 2026 · 5.93 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.93 | 13.4% | 19.6% | 2.7% | .277 | 4.87 | 15.5% | -3.1% | 80 | -1.06 | 2.97 | 212 | 82 |
| Jonathan Teaney R 2025 · 6.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.06 | 16.4% | 15.7% | 4.3% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 108 | 82 |
| Abel Brito R 2025 · 6.54 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.54 | 14.0% | 23.6% | 3.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 147 | 81 |
| Austin Glorius R 2026 · 6.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 6.18 | 18.7% | 21.0% | 3.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 141 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 57 | 17.4% | 18.6% | 1.09 | 5.95 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |