Kyle Ayers

P Hillsboro Hops

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX3 levels	18	3	31	2.93	2.15	24.6%	8.7%	—	K 15.6% · BB 10.5% · FIP 3.11
2026	23	A+ARI	23	10	102	5.47	4.35	17.7%	5.7%	—	K 13.7% · BB 6.5% · FIP 5.27
2027PROJ	24	MLBARI	50	0	53	4.94	4.94	15.2%	7.1%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBARI	38	0	40	4.79	4.74	17.2%	7.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBARI	59	0	62	4.67	4.62	18.4%	7.0%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsDakota Hawkins (age 24) · Danny Kirwin (age 24) · Sergio Mitre (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%15.2%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%8.1%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	3	31	126	31	11	0	17%	1.7	15.6%	10.5%	5.1%	0.0%	2.93	3.11	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	3	31	126	31	11	0	17%	1.7	15.6%	10.5%	5.1%	0.0%	2.93	3.11	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	3	31	126	31	11	0	17%	1.7	24.6%	8.7%	15.9%	0.0%	2.93	2.15	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	23	10	102	440	78	25	16	43%	4.4	13.7%	6.5%	7.1%	4.5%	5.47	5.27	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	23	10	102	440	78	25	16	43%	4.4	13.7%	6.5%	7.1%	4.5%	5.47	5.27	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	23	10	102	440	78	25	16	43%	4.4	17.7%	5.7%	12.0%	3.6%	5.47	4.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ARI	50	0	53	224	34	16	8	0%	1.1	15.2%	7.1%	8.1%	3.4%	4.94	4.94	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	88	0	93	392	67	28	13	0%	1.1	17.2%	7.0%	10.2%	3.3%	4.79	4.74	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	88	0	93	392	72	28	13	0%	1.1	18.4%	7.0%	11.3%	3.3%	4.67	4.62	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	87	0	92	386	72	28	13	0%	1.1	18.6%	7.2%	11.4%	3.3%	4.65	4.64	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	85	0	89	375	69	27	13	0%	1.0	18.5%	7.3%	11.2%	3.4%	4.69	4.72	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	81	0	85	358	65	27	13	0%	1.0	18.3%	7.5%	10.7%	3.6%	4.79	4.85	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	76	0	80	337	67	24	13	0%	1.0	19.9%	7.0%	12.9%	3.8%	4.77	4.76	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	38	0	40	169	29	12	6	0%	1.1	17.2%	7.0%	10.2%	3.3%	4.79	4.74	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	59	0	62	262	48	18	9	0%	1.1	18.4%	7.0%	11.3%	3.3%	4.67	4.62	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	68	0	71	300	56	21	10	0%	1.0	18.6%	7.2%	11.4%	3.3%	4.65	4.64	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	71	0	75	317	59	23	11	0%	1.1	18.5%	7.3%	11.2%	3.4%	4.69	4.72	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	70	0	74	312	57	24	11	0%	1.1	18.3%	7.5%	10.7%	3.6%	4.79	4.85	-0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	69	0	72	304	61	21	11	0%	1.0	19.9%	7.0%	12.9%	3.8%	4.77	4.76	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		374	0	393	1659	308	120	57	0%	1.1	18.6%	7.2%	11.4%	3.5%	4.72	4.34	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	157	61	29	0%	1.1	18.6%	7.2%	11.4%	3.5%	4.72	4.34	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		41	13	133	566	80	42	20	32%	3.2	14.1%	7.4%	6.7%	3.5%	4.88	4.79	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	20	200	853	120	63	30	32%	3.2	14.1%	7.4%	6.7%	3.5%	4.88	4.79	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Ayers (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	15.2%	7.1%	3.4%	—	4.67	18.0%	11.0%	277	-0.27	—	—	—
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	85
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	84
Sergio Mitre R 2005 · 5.18 FIP	24	SW	5.18	13.8%	7.8%	4.1%	.256	3.84	13.0%	6.6%	190	-1.34	3.55	602	83
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	83
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	82
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	82
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	81
Darrell Rasner R 2006 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP-	4.07	13.3%	6.0%	2.4%	.246	4.56	12.5%	5.2%	138	+0.49	4.07	158	81
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	81
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	80
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	80
Wilmer Rios R 2017 · 4.95 FIP	23	SW	4.95	16.3%	5.8%	4.5%	.265	5.25	16.2%	12.3%	80	+0.30	2.81	156	80
Sun-Woo Kim R 2002 · 3.97 FIP	24	SW	3.97	13.9%	5.8%	2.4%	.290	4.48	14.2%	7.5%	232	+0.51	3.25	337	80
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	79
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	79
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	79
Jeff Manship R 2009 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	14.4%	10.3%	2.7%	.330	4.23	14.9%	9.5%	51	-0.46	2.83	250	79
Chad Bettis R 2013 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP-	4.38	14.4%	8.7%	2.6%	.318	3.81	17.4%	10.4%	365	-0.57	3.67	672	79
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	79
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	83	18.1%	7.2%	1.33	4.74
Randy O'Neal ('84-'90, 1 WAR*)	2.2	73	17.4%*	7.8%*	1.21*	4.65*
Ross Ohlendorf ('16)	2.9	84	17.2%	8.6%	1.38	4.82
Paul Reuschel ('75-'79, 1 WAR*)	2.0	79	16.8%*	7.6%*	1.29*	4.76*
Morrie Martin ('49-'59, 3 WAR*)	3.0	76	17.2%*	8.3%*	1.25*	4.45*
Brad Lincoln ('14)	1.1	56	17.4%	7.9%	1.30	4.74
Alfredo Simon ('16)	3.9	111	15.7%	8.0%	1.22	4.56