Alex Hoppe

P Baltimore Orioles

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AABOS	36	66	5.43	4.16	21.0%	11.8%	—	K 17.0% · BB 13.0% · FIP 4.75
2025	26	MIX2 levels	44	61	4.55	3.39	26.4%	12.0%	—	K 22.4% · BB 11.5% · FIP 3.76
2026	27	MIX2 levels	57	60	3.92	3.02	25.3%	11.3%	1.1	K 24.2% · BB 10.9% · FIP 3.03
2027PROJ	28	MLBBAL	71	75	4.00	3.89	26.3%	11.1%	0.6
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBBAL	65	68	4.07	4.09	25.4%	11.1%	0.4
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBBAL	61	64	4.22	4.31	24.6%	11.3%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%62

Whiff%54

xwOBA vs53

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsRobert Stock (age 28) · Marcos Mateo (age 27) · Jumbo Diaz (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA4.00

FIP3.89

K%26.3%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%15.2%

Proj IP75

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.4

Whiff%

p5425.9%

p6224.5%

xwOBA vs

p530.309

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	48	211	64	17	6	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.2%	14.5%	3.5%	4.10	4.21	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	48	211	64	17	6	0%	1.1	30.3%	8.1%	22.3%	2.8%	4.10	3.12	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	36	0	66	314	66	37	7	0%	1.8	17.0%	13.0%	4.1%	2.6%	5.43	4.75	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	36	0	66	314	66	37	7	0%	1.8	17.0%	13.0%	4.1%	2.6%	5.43	4.75	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	36	0	66	314	66	37	7	0%	1.8	21.0%	11.8%	9.2%	2.2%	5.43	4.16	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	61	276	73	33	5	0%	1.4	22.4%	11.5%	11.0%	2.0%	4.55	3.76	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	61	276	73	33	5	0%	1.4	22.4%	11.5%	11.0%	2.0%	4.55	3.76	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	61	276	73	33	5	0%	1.4	26.4%	12.0%	14.5%	1.8%	4.55	3.39	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	60	265	67	30	3	0%	1.0	24.2%	10.9%	13.4%	1.1%	3.92	3.03	+1.1
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	60	265	67	30	3	0%	1.0	24.2%	10.9%	13.4%	1.1%	3.92	3.03	+1.1
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	60	265	67	30	3	0%	1.0	25.3%	11.3%	14.0%	1.1%	3.92	3.02	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			42	0	43	192	47	18	3	0%	1.0	24.5%	9.4%	15.1%	1.6%	4.43	3.08	+0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	BAL	71	0	75	317	83	35	7	0%	1.1	26.3%	11.1%	15.2%	2.2%	4.00	3.89	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BAL	68	0	72	303	77	34	7	0%	1.1	25.4%	11.1%	14.3%	2.4%	4.07	4.09	+0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	BAL	64	0	68	285	70	32	8	0%	1.1	24.6%	11.3%	13.3%	2.7%	4.22	4.31	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	BAL	65	0	68	287	73	32	7	0%	1.0	25.4%	11.1%	14.3%	2.4%	4.07	4.09	+0.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	BAL	61	0	64	270	66	31	7	0%	1.0	24.6%	11.3%	13.3%	2.7%	4.22	4.31	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		168	0	175	751	187	81	17	0%	1.0	24.9%	10.7%	14.1%	2.3%	4.21	3.63	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	858	214	93	19	0%	1.0	24.9%	10.7%	14.1%	2.3%	4.21	3.63	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		180	0	236	1066	230	121	24	0%	1.3	21.5%	11.3%	10.2%	2.3%	4.54	3.96	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	0	200	905	195	102	20	0%	1.3	21.5%	11.3%	10.2%	2.3%	4.54	3.96	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Hoppe (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.89	26.3%	11.1%	2.2%	—	4.20	25.0%	13.8%	139	+0.31	—	—	—
Robert Stock R 2018 · 2.91 FIP	28	SU	2.91	22.2%	8.5%	1.1%	.262	4.51	24.1%	11.9%	88	+1.60	2.74	378	79
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	79
Jumbo Diaz R 2014 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	26.1%	7.0%	2.0%	.283	3.64	23.0%	15.0%	186	+0.77	2.80	319	78
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	22.7%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.02	25.4%	17.1%	87	-0.43	2.32	186	78
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	78
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	77
Blake Treinen R 2016 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	24.0%	9.5%	1.9%	.271	3.04	26.0%	17.7%	215	-0.28	1.53	601	77
Zach Franklin R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	26.4%	10.9%	1.8%	.301	4.15	27.5%	18.3%	117	+0.91	3.24	158	76
Lucas Erceg R 2023 · 3.50 FIP	28	SU	3.50	25.7%	13.8%	1.5%	.330	3.25	21.4%	13.5%	171	-0.25	2.10	351	76
Blake Wood R 2015 · 2.92 FIP	29	SU	2.92	24.5%	10.5%	1.0%	.325	3.60	24.9%	14.9%	151	+0.68	2.92	329	76
Dayan Díaz R 2017 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	25.1%	8.7%	2.5%	.358	3.96	29.4%	19.3%	16	+0.51	3.08	205	76
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	76
Jason Motte R 2010 · 3.24 FIP	28	SU	3.24	26.0%	7.2%	2.6%	.269	2.69	27.3%	21.8%	140	-0.55	2.22	387	76
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	75
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	75
Yosver Zulueta R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	26	SU	3.35	24.3%	11.5%	1.6%	.339	4.16	24.0%	12.2%	105	+0.81	3.19	290	75
Pedro Strop R 2013 · 3.23 FIP	28	SU	3.23	26.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.252	2.51	30.3%	21.8%	176	-0.72	2.25	494	75
Collin Baumgartner R 2024 · 2.99 FIP	25	SU	2.99	26.1%	11.5%	1.2%	.280	4.13	22.6%	8.4%	77	+1.14	2.99	134	75
Austin Adams R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	18.6%	9.5%	1.4%	.331	3.40	21.1%	15.0%	56	-0.11	3.40	162	75
Kiko Calero R 2003 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	31.5%	11.1%	3.1%	.273	3.11	26.1%	18.9%	159	-0.43	2.27	298	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	64	25.3%	11.0%	0.89	4.15
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Joel Hanrahan ('13)	2.0	67	25.0%	11.2%	0.89	3.85
Frank Francisco ('14)	1.9	55	25.6%	10.3%	0.96	4.01
Mike Stanton ('75-'85, 0 WAR*)	1.9	64	27.8%*	10.8%*	0.80*	4.82*
Dave Geisel ('78-'85, 2 WAR*)	1.0	42	23.5%*	10.6%*	0.84*	4.12*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*