Dustin Crenshaw

SS Inland Empire 66ers

Age 25 L/R 6'2" / 190 lbs A K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	23	A/ROK2 orgs	329	.281/.380/.395	5	10	64	—	.218/.285/.298
2026	24	ASEA	309	.233/.331/.331	3	13	45	—	.191/.266/.267
2027PROJMLE	25	MLBSEA	359	.207/.276/.296	4	7	63	-0.2
2028PROJ30% MLB	26	MLBSEA	55	.208/.278/.303	1	1	67	-0.0
2029PROJ42% MLB	27	MLBSEA	94	.209/.279/.305	1	2	68	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Speed72

Z-Con%64

Whiff%50

K%49

BB%40

Chase%32

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsZach Ashford (age 25) · Travis Whitmore (age 25) · Yoel Yanqui (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 161 proj PA

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .274 / .293

PA161

HR2

K%29

BB%8

ISO89

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	23	A	Modesto Nuts	—	101	85	15	2	0	0	15	20	0	2	1	176	300	200	500	24	231	20	15	246	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	228	196	64	9	3	5	29	33	1	8	4	327	416	480	896	153	369	14	13	396	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A	Inland Empire 66ers	—	309	266	62	11	3	3	34	75	5	13	5	233	331	331	662	98	309	24	11	302	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	23	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	101	90	14	2	0	0	10	26	0	2	1	156	240	178	418	22	214	26	10	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	228	208	51	6	2	4	17	48	1	8	4	245	305	351	656	106	296	21	7	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	309	277	53	9	3	2	23	102	5	13	5	191	266	267	533	76	275	33	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	329	298	66	8	2	4	27	74	1	10	5	221	288	302	590	81	279	22	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	329	281	79	11	3	5	44	53	1	10	5	281	380	395	775	114	329	16	13	350	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	309	277	53	9	3	2	23	102	5	13	5	191	266	267	533	76	290	33	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	—	309	266	62	11	3	3	34	75	5	13	5	233	331	331	662	98	309	24	11	302	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	329	298	66	8	2	4	27	74	1	10	5	221	288	302	590	81	271	22	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	309	278	53	9	3	2	23	102	5	13	5	191	266	266	532	76	275	33	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	23	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	329	298	66	8	2	4	27	74	1	10	5	221	288	302	590	81	271	22	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	309	278	53	9	3	2	23	102	5	13	5	191	266	266	532	76	275	33	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SEA	0%	359	325	67	13	2	4	28	106	3	7	2	207	276	296	572	89	290	30	8	261	63	-16	+1	+0	+4	+8	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SEA	30%	183	165	35	7	1	2	14	53	2	3	1	210	280	307	587	97	290	29	8	267	67	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	SEA	42%	226	204	42	8	1	3	18	65	2	4	1	211	281	309	590	99	289	29	8	268	68	-9	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	SEA	30%	55	50	10	2	0	1	4	16	1	1	0	208	278	303	581	95	287	29	7	265	67	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	SEA	42%	94	86	17	3	0	1	7	27	1	2	0	209	279	305	584	97	287	29	7	266	68	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	149	136	27	5	0	2	11	43	2	3	0	199	268	279	548	81	275	29	7	265	60	-6	+1	+0	+2	+3	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	118	22	0	9	48	188	9	13	0	199	269	282	551	83	275	29	7	265	60	-25	+3	+0	+7	+14	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	1208	1090	227	38	8	13	94	341	12	33	13	208	278	294	572	85	288	28	8	257	60	-23	+1	+0	+6	+12	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	121	20	4	7	51	183	6	18	7	206	276	290	566	83	284	28	8	257	60	-26	+1	+0	+7	+14	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AInland Empire 66ers · 309 PAwOBA .298 → .234 (−64)K% 24.3% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.27%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	33.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.00%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.970	7.36%
HBP% /PA	1.62%	—	×0.780	—	×0.970	1.22%
Singles /BIP	23.56%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.021	×0.970	21.46%
Doubles /BIP	5.76%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.021	×0.970	4.73%
Triples /BIP	1.57%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.021	×0.970	1.42%
Home runs /BIP	1.57%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.970	1.22%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .298 → .234; ISO .098 → .076; BABIP .309 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Mariners · 228 PAwOBA .389 → .293 (−96)K% 14.5% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.47%	÷0.999	×1.440	—	—	20.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.72%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.955	7.53%
HBP% /PA	0.44%	—	×0.720	—	×0.955	0.30%
Singles /BIP	28.83%	÷0.942	×0.820	×1.006	×0.955	24.11%
Doubles /BIP	5.52%	÷1.046	×0.720	×1.006	×0.955	3.65%
Triples /BIP	1.84%	÷0.900	×0.720	×1.006	×0.955	1.41%
Home runs /BIP	3.07%	÷0.886	×0.780	—	×0.955	2.58%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 88, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 100, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .389 → .293; ISO .153 → .118; BABIP .369 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AModesto Nuts · 101 PAwOBA .236 → .195 (−41)K% 19.8% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.80%	÷1.045	×1.360	—	—	25.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.86%	÷0.988	×0.690	—	×0.980	9.49%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.980	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.989	×0.920	×1.040	×0.980	18.95%
Doubles /BIP	3.08%	÷1.067	×0.830	×1.040	×0.980	2.44%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.097	×0.910	×1.040	×0.980	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.759	×0.800	—	×0.980	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 52, 1B 98, 2B 113, 3B 119, K 109, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .236 → .195; ISO .024 → .019; BABIP .231 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#2Al Weis'62-'71 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,763 PA	2.7	1,763	7	55	223*	283*	300*	+10	+9	-0.2	1.3
/162	664	3	21	+3.8	+3.5	-0.1	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.5	310	4	5	209	276	303	+2	+2	-0.3	-0.1
/162	664	8	12	+4.8	+4.3	-0.6	pk7: 0
#3Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#4David Howard'91-'99 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	11	23	220*	280*	301*	+10	+23	-1.6	-0.8
/162	664	4	9	+3.7	+8.5	-0.6	pk7: -0
#5Hector Torres'68-'77 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,889 PA	2.8	1,889	18	7	215*	262*	312*	+16	+3	-2.1	-0.9
/162	664	6	2	+5.7	+1.2	-0.7	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dustin Crenshaw (OGILVIE)	25	55	35	45	45	205/274/293	88	290	2	3	29%	8%	63	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Zach Ashford 2022 · A	25	48	37→40	45→50	44	222/292/296	75	301	3	8	26%	7%	70	-0.9	225/281/316	91	305	6	11	27%	6%	70	-0.9	227/278/320	93	304	7	13	26%	6%	66	-0.7
✕Travis Whitmore 2013 · A	25	48→49	38→40	47→45	44	226/280/312	86	307	4	7	27%	7%	68	-1.0	211/259/290	79	296	5	6	29%	6%	55	-2.0	178/214/215	37	254	2	0	30%	4%	18	-1.5
✕Yoel Yanqui 2021 · A	25	46→52	40	50	43	221/276/318	97	303	7	13	28%	7%	68	-1.0	214/278/323	109	306	10	9	31%	8%	70	-0.8	199/268/303	104	282	11	6	31%	8%	59	-0.8
✕Levi Hyams 2015 · A	25	44→47	38→40	45	44	207/265/291	84	282	4	7	27%	7%	58	-1.7	210/260/300	90	286	6	5	27%	6%	57	-1.8	213/260/311	98	284	8	4	27%	6%	58	-0.9
✕Mitchell Tolman 2019 · A	25	45→47	40→45	46→50	47	212/290/301	89	293	7	10	28%	9%	70	-0.8	216/284/315	99	301	8	9	29%	7%	71	-0.8	218/288/333	115	286	10	8	26%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Danny Diekroeger 2017 · A	25	49→50	37→40	48→50	45	228/289/308	81	297	2	9	23%	6%	71	-0.8	219/266/306	87	293	5	6	26%	5%	61	-1.5	212/245/291	80	281	4	1	25%	4%	49	-1.1
✕Christian Donahue 2019 · A	24	48	39→40	45→50	42	226/279/315	89	311	7	5	28%	6%	68	-1.0	198/247/276	78	273	5	10	28%	6%	47	-2.5	167/209/231	64	223	3	11	26%	5%	21	-2.7
✕Konner Piotto 2023 · A	25	46	39→30	49→50	42	214/281/304	90	314	5	8	32%	7%	68	-1.0	211/283/290	79	298	6	10	29%	7%	65	-1.2	201/278/264	63	287	5	10	29%	7%	57	-0.6
✕Adam Melker 2013 · AA	25	48	39→40	46→50	44	230/283/313	83	299	7	9	25%	6%	70	-0.9	232/277/324	92	292	9	12	23%	5%	70	-0.9	232/275/317	85	287	9	13	22%	4%	64	-0.7
✕Ford Proctor 2021 · A	24	48	38→40	44→45	48	225/289/306	81	296	5	8	25%	8%	70	-0.8	214/299/323	109	307	12	6	31%	10%	79	-0.2	204/298/305	101	289	12	4	31%	11%	73	-0.4
✕Bryce Windham 2022 · A	25	47	40	49→50	51	226/295/319	93	275	7	7	20%	9%	76	-0.4	217/287/302	85	274	5	8	21%	9%	69	-0.9	217/287/297	80	278	4	10	22%	9%	65	-0.5
✕Ender Chavez 2006 · A	25	47→48	36→30	46→55	44	222/269/286	65	282	3	12	22%	6%	58	-1.7	230/301/290	60	292	3	15	20%	9%	71	-0.8	237/319/281	44	297	1	19	19%	10%	73	-0.3
✕Chase Calabuig 2021 · AA	25	48→56	37→40	45	49	225/300/298	73	307	5	8	26%	9%	73	-0.6	230/293/328	98	278	8	5	19%	8%	77	-0.3	237/299/340	103	277	9	3	17%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Jordan Cowan 2019 · A	24	50→51	36→30	48→50	44	237/286/298	61	309	3	10	24%	6%	66	-1.1	231/291/293	62	298	4	15	22%	7%	68	-1.0	223/289/279	56	287	3	17	22%	8%	61	-0.9
✕Shane McGuire 2024 · AA	25	45	37→40	46→45	51	213/299/287	74	286	5	6	25%	10%	71	-0.8	213/295/299	86	282	8	8	25%	9%	72	-0.7	208/294/289	82	271	8	9	24%	10%	66	-0.5
✕Tyler LaTorre 2008 · A	25	45	38→30	50→40	42	212/272/293	81	310	5	9	32%	7%	61	-1.5	220/288/300	80	310	6	5	28%	9%	69	-0.9	230/287/314	84	302	7	3	25%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Mike Gilmartin 2012 · A	25	43→46	42→45	46→45	40	208/263/322	114	292	9	6	31%	6%	64	-1.3	210/274/310	100	287	10	6	28%	7%	66	-1.1	202/272/289	87	271	10	4	28%	8%	58	-1.2
✕Wang-Wei Lin 2012 · A	24	50→53	36→30	44→50	48	233/300/295	62	300	4	9	23%	8%	72	-0.7	222/295/303	81	288	5	9	23%	8%	72	-0.7	208/291/285	77	268	4	9	22%	8%	64	-0.9
✕Damon Dues 2022 · A	24	45	36→30	44→60	43	204/281/269	65	308	3	7	32%	8%	59	-1.6	226/318/291	65	328	2	23	28%	11%	78	-0.3	239/341/300	61	339	1	37	26%	13%	86	+0.1
✕Austen Wade 2021 · A	25	46	39→40	44→45	46	215/287/304	89	313	6	8	31%	9%	70	-0.9	204/280/297	93	279	8	8	28%	9%	65	-1.2	135/238/191	56	177	7	3	26%	12%	26	-0.8

Dustin Crenshaw

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps