Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.10 | 3.60 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.10 | 3.70 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 3 | 54 | 222 | 57 | 13 | 5 | 10% | 1.8 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 3.64 | 3.94 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 3 | 54 | 222 | 57 | 13 | 5 | 10% | 1.8 | 25.7% | 5.9% | 19.8% | 2.3% | 3.64 | 2.92 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 22 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.4% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 4.3% | 5.45 | 5.15 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SD | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 52 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 8.6% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 8.6% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | SD | — | — | 90 | 380 | 87 | 35 | 12 | — | — | 23.0% | 9.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 4.78 | 4.67 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | SD | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.7% | 8.6% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.01 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SD | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 54 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SD | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 55 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 8.6% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SD | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 54 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 8.7% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SD | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 52 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SD | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SD | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 8.6% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SD | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 42 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 8.7% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SD | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 45 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 8.8% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 148 | 0 | 156 | 658 | 148 | 57 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 8.7% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 3.98 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 73 | 26 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 8.7% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 55 | 3 | 91 | 378 | 78 | 34 | 13 | 5% | 1.6 | 20.6% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.47 | 4.37 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 121 | 7 | 200 | 834 | 171 | 75 | 28 | 5% | 1.6 | 20.6% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.47 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Mallitz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 21.7% | 8.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.32 | 22.5% | 13.9% | 172 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 92 |
| Breckin Williams R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .282 | 2.79 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.95 | 2.72 | 107 | 92 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 89 |
| Mark McLaughlin R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.28 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 3.4% | .280 | 4.38 | 15.5% | 5.5% | 20 | +0.10 | 4.28 | 195 | 89 |
| Alex Phillips R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.23 | 3.26 | 139 | 89 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.31 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .262 | 6.15 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.84 | 3.31 | 207 | 89 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 89 |
| Trey McLoughlin R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.89 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .295 | 4.73 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 95 | +0.84 | 3.78 | 217 | 89 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 88 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 88 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 88 |
| Josh Advocate R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.58 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.59 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 75 | +0.01 | 3.58 | 118 | 88 |
| Roman Mendez R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .275 | 4.62 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.50 | 4.12 | 230 | 88 |
| Micah Dallas R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.96 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .273 | 3.95 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 80 | -0.01 | 3.57 | 178 | 88 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 214 | 88 |
| Cole Ayers R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .298 | 5.00 | 15.2% | -0.4% | 32 | +1.14 | 3.52 | 171 | 87 |
| J.R. Graham R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.55 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 61 | -0.83 | 3.30 | 125 | 87 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.44 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.6% | .264 | 3.56 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.88 | 3.56 | 155 | 87 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.3% | .282 | 5.34 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.57 | 3.77 | 105 | 87 |
| Bryan Pope R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.87 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .332 | 5.00 | 12.7% | -0.3% | 22 | +1.13 | 3.87 | 148 | 87 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 57 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 1.18 | 4.36 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |