Ben Grable

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP42ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	24	MIX3 levels	48	50	3.04	1.53	35.5%	9.3%	—	K 29.0% · BB 8.9% · FIP 2.23
2027PROJ	25	MLBWSH	57	60	3.51	3.51	29.3%	8.2%	0.8
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBWSH	25	26	3.58	3.57	28.9%	8.3%	0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBWSH	35	37	3.65	3.66	28.4%	8.4%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff49Control55Command55FB velo70

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsVictor Zambrano (age 25) · Jake Smith (age 25) · Shane Broyles (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10092vR 84

ERA3.51

FIP3.51

K%29.3%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%21.0%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL—55

CMD5055

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$1M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	50	214	76	20	1	0%	1.0	29.0%	8.9%	20.1%	0.8%	3.04	2.23	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	50	214	76	20	1	0%	1.0	29.0%	8.9%	20.1%	0.8%	3.04	2.23	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	50	214	76	20	1	0%	1.0	35.5%	9.3%	26.2%	0.5%	3.04	1.53	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	57	0	60	253	74	21	7	0%	1.1	29.3%	8.2%	21.0%	2.7%	3.51	3.51	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	57	0	60	251	73	21	7	0%	1.0	28.9%	8.3%	20.6%	2.7%	3.58	3.57	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	56	0	59	247	70	21	7	0%	1.0	28.4%	8.4%	20.0%	2.8%	3.65	3.66	+0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	25	0	26	110	32	9	3	0%	1.0	28.9%	8.3%	20.6%	2.7%	3.58	3.57	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	35	0	37	156	44	13	4	0%	1.1	28.4%	8.4%	20.0%	2.8%	3.65	3.66	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	267	76	22	7	0%	1.1	28.6%	8.4%	20.2%	2.7%	3.62	3.24	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	240	70	22	0%	1.1	28.6%	8.4%	20.2%	2.7%	3.62	3.24	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		48	0	50	214	62	19	2	0%	1.0	29.0%	8.9%	20.1%	0.8%	3.04	2.23	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		191	0	200	850	247	76	7	0%	1.0	29.0%	8.9%	20.1%	0.8%	3.04	2.23	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Grable (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.51	29.3%	8.2%	2.7%	—	3.61	28.7%	20.3%	118	+0.10	—	—	—
Victor Zambrano R 2001 · 3.42 FIP	25	SU	3.42	27.4%	8.5%	2.8%	.246	4.75	16.4%	3.1%	444	+1.33	3.42	706	89
Jake Smith R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	25	SU	3.11	28.1%	7.5%	2.6%	.243	4.69	19.3%	-1.7%	26	+1.58	3.11	110	87
Shane Broyles R 2017 · 3.34 FIP	25	SU	3.34	29.9%	7.3%	3.4%	.259	3.89	23.0%	11.7%	54	+0.55	3.34	218	87
Neil Ramírez R 2014 · 2.43 FIP	25	SU	2.43	29.9%	9.6%	1.2%	.257	4.83	26.1%	13.9%	104	+2.40	2.43	264	85
Ryan Cook R 2012 · 2.60 FIP	25	SU	2.60	27.8%	8.0%	1.5%	.210	3.44	21.5%	12.1%	169	+0.84	2.60	292	84
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	84
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	84
Brad Lidge R 2003 · 2.97 FIP	26	SU	2.97	27.8%	10.0%	1.7%	.256	2.24	36.7%	28.9%	240	-0.73	1.56	595	84
Addison Russ R 2019 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	27.7%	9.3%	2.1%	.321	4.58	24.3%	8.8%	44	+1.47	3.08	194	84
Aaron Crow R 2012 · 2.88 FIP	25	SU	2.88	25.0%	7.7%	1.7%	.292	4.93	17.1%	7.9%	107	+2.05	2.88	234	83
Brad Brach R 2012 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	26.8%	9.3%	3.8%	.232	3.54	24.3%	13.5%	173	-0.58	2.69	570	83
Lucas Wepf R 2024 · 3.80 FIP	24	SU	3.80	27.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.304	4.09	25.4%	11.8%	80	+0.29	2.90	195	83
Rafael Soriano R 2006 · 3.29 FIP	26	SU	3.29	27.0%	8.7%	2.5%	.255	3.12	29.3%	22.6%	162	-0.17	1.48	620	83
Connor Brogdon R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SU	3.64	29.7%	8.8%	3.5%	.236	3.37	23.6%	17.2%	102	-0.27	2.98	402	83
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	83
Josh Martin R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	25	SU	3.16	24.1%	7.4%	2.1%	.257	2.96	20.7%	13.6%	124	-0.20	2.41	225	82
Steven Wilson R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	27.2%	10.7%	3.3%	.271	3.81	29.3%	19.9%	92	-0.18	3.64	331	82
Ben Heller R 2017 · 2.86 FIP	25	SU	2.86	32.4%	9.4%	2.4%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	82
Colten Brewer R 2018 · 2.54 FIP	25	SU	2.54	28.6%	7.6%	1.6%	.325	4.73	20.0%	7.4%	109	+2.19	2.54	526	82
Cam Bedrosian R 2017 · 3.23 FIP	25	SU	3.23	27.9%	8.4%	2.6%	.310	3.65	22.5%	13.3%	140	+0.42	1.79	363	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	28.9%	8.3%	1.04	3.58
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Josh Fields ('18)	1.4	46	27.5%	8.0%	0.98	3.71
Danny Farquhar ('18)	1.4	54	26.9%	9.2%	0.99	3.93
Kazuhiro Sasaki ('03)	1.1	56	26.2%	8.3%	0.97	3.14
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*
Carlos Diaz ('82-'86, 2 WAR*)	1.3	52	25.1%*	8.7%*	0.91*	3.84*