Colten Brewer
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
+0.1
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'4" / 222 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.86
FIP4.33
xFIP4.24
SIERA3.86
K%23.5%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%13.0%
IP24
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL3535
CMD4040
K†6060
FB Velo
p4794.3
Whiff%
p5626.3%
K%
p5523.2%
xwOBA vs
p420.321
SL+1.2 (27%)
SI (2%)
CU (29%)
CT-1.6 (3%)
FB-4.1 (41%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A | West Virginia Power | 22 | 22 | 119 | 511 | 99 | 37 | 9 | 14.3% | 8.5% | 1.9% | 4.90 | 4.03 | +1.7 |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Bradenton Marauders | 18 | 13 | 70 | 322 | 66 | 27 | 5 | 15.8% | 9.6% | 1.7% | 4.09 | 3.95 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 41 | 0 | 61 | 262 | 69 | 15 | 2 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 0.8% | 2.82 | 2.74 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 48 | 0 | 58 | 243 | 73 | 21 | 3 | 28.6% | 7.6% | 1.6% | 4.06 | 2.53 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 67 | 0 | 66 | 309 | 62 | 40 | 8 | 19.7% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 4.55 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 11 | 4 | 26 | 122 | 25 | 14 | 6 | 20.5% | 11.5% | 5.4% | 5.61 | 5.77 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 16 | 1 | 26 | 119 | 28 | 15 | 2 | 20.6% | 12.3% | 2.3% | 5.47 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 36 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 42 | 18 | 7 | 21.9% | 11.2% | 4.6% | 4.76 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 18 | 2 | 28 | 111 | 27 | 9 | 5 | 26.3% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 2.22 | 3.46 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 32 | 0 | 39 | 171 | 42 | 17 | 3 | 23.2% | 10.2% | 1.8% | 3.96 | 3.41 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 32 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 22 | 0 | 30 | 118 | 32 | 15 | 3 | 23.9% | 13.3% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 24 | — | 24 | 101 | 25 | 12 | 3 | 24.2% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 5.02 | 4.49 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 23 | — | 23 | 96 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.79 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 331 | 42 | 562 | 2457 | 489 | 241 | 56 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 2.3% | 4.21 | 3.91 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 118 | 15 | 200 | 874 | 174 | 86 | 20 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 2.3% | 4.21 | 3.91 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Colten Brewer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 24.2% | 11.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.63 | 23.5% | 11.7% | 23 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 89 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 81 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 81 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 81 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 80 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.53 | 27.0% | 14.5% | 3.4% | .238 | 3.71 | 23.8% | 15.4% | 84 | -0.82 | 1.94 | 268 | 79 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 77 |
| Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 77 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 77 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.38 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 1.6% | .356 | 4.65 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 66 | +1.27 | 2.80 | 410 | 76 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 75 |
| Nate Jones R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .279 | 5.52 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +1.44 | 2.61 | 157 | 75 |
| Jake Petricka R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.57 | 19.1% | 8.0% | 3.8% | .340 | 3.19 | 18.3% | 10.4% | 24 | -1.38 | 3.04 | 252 | 74 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 74 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.65 | 22.7% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .255 | 4.50 | 24.1% | 13.8% | 97 | +0.85 | 3.38 | 212 | 74 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 74 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.28 | 21.9% | 8.5% | 5.4% | .312 | 5.01 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 49 | -0.27 | 2.30 | 153 | 74 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.78 | 20.4% | 14.1% | 2.9% | .344 | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 43 | +0.28 | 2.00 | 320 | 74 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 74 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .335 | 2.56 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -1.05 | 2.56 | 144 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.