Colten Brewer
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Age 33
RHP
6'4" / 222 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 137 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.49
FIP4.60
K%23.9%
BB%12.4%
K-BB%11.5%
ROS IP137
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 137 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4794.3
Whiff%
p5626.3%
K%
p5523.2%
xwOBA vs
p420.321
SL+1.2 (27%)
SI (2%)
CU (29%)
CT-1.6 (3%)
FB-4.1 (41%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A | West Virginia Power | 22 | 22 | 119 | 511 | 99 | 37 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 14.3% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 4.90 | 3.96 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A | West Virginia Power | 22 | 22 | 119 | 511 | 99 | 37 | 9 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.4% | 7.2% | 12.1% | 1.8% | 4.90 | 3.35 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Bradenton Marauders | 18 | 13 | 70 | 322 | 66 | 27 | 5 | 72% | 3.9 | 15.8% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 1.6% | 4.09 | 3.88 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Bradenton Marauders | 18 | 13 | 70 | 322 | 66 | 27 | 5 | 72% | 3.9 | 20.5% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 1.6% | 4.09 | 3.30 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 0 | 61 | 262 | 69 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 12.9% | 0.6% | 2.82 | 2.65 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 0 | 61 | 262 | 69 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 26.3% | 5.7% | 20.6% | 0.8% | 2.82 | 2.00 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 58 | 243 | 73 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.6% | 7.6% | 21.0% | 1.6% | 4.06 | 2.50 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 58 | 243 | 73 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.0% | 8.6% | 21.4% | 1.2% | 4.06 | 2.34 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 67 | 0 | 66 | 309 | 62 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 13.1% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 67 | 0 | 66 | 309 | 62 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 12.9% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 4.62 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 11 | 4 | 26 | 122 | 25 | 14 | 6 | 36% | 2.3 | 20.5% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 4.9% | 5.61 | 5.50 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 11 | 4 | 26 | 122 | 25 | 14 | 6 | 36% | 2.3 | 20.5% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 4.9% | 5.61 | 5.83 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 1 | 26 | 119 | 28 | 15 | 2 | 6% | 1.6 | 20.6% | 12.3% | 8.3% | 1.7% | 5.47 | 3.88 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 1 | 26 | 119 | 28 | 15 | 2 | 6% | 1.6 | 23.5% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 1.7% | 5.47 | 3.67 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 36 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 42 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 4.7% | 4.76 | 5.26 | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 36 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 42 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 10.7% | 14.2% | 4.1% | 4.76 | 4.64 | — |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 2 | 28 | 111 | 27 | 9 | 5 | 11% | 1.6 | 26.3% | 8.2% | 18.1% | 2.8% | 2.22 | 3.43 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 2 | 28 | 111 | 27 | 9 | 5 | 11% | 1.6 | 24.3% | 8.1% | 16.2% | 4.5% | 2.22 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 39 | 171 | 42 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.2% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 1.7% | 3.96 | 3.36 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 39 | 171 | 42 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.6% | 9.9% | 14.6% | 1.8% | 3.96 | 3.26 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 32 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 22 | 0 | 30 | 118 | 32 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.9% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 3.94 | 4.12 | — |
| 2025 | 32 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 22 | 0 | 30 | 118 | 32 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.1% | 12.7% | 14.4% | 2.5% | 3.94 | 3.77 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 133 | 0 | 139 | 588 | 141 | 73 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.60 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 121 | 0 | 127 | 535 | 123 | 69 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 12.9% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.91 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 108 | 0 | 114 | 480 | 106 | 65 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 13.5% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 5.04 | 5.24 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 12.9% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.91 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 13.5% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 5.04 | 5.24 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 108 | 4 | 128 | 596 | 122 | 73 | 17 | 4% | 1.2 | 20.4% | 12.3% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 5.08 | 4.51 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 6 | 200 | 931 | 190 | 114 | 27 | 4% | 1.2 | 20.4% | 12.3% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 5.08 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 331 | 42 | 562 | 2457 | 489 | 241 | 53 | 13% | 1.7 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | 4.21 | 3.84 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 118 | 15 | 200 | 874 | 174 | 86 | 19 | 13% | 1.7 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | 4.21 | 3.84 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Colten Brewer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 23.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | — | 5.07 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 241 | +0.47 | — | — | — |
| Blake Wood R 2024 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 68 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 67 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .274 | 3.99 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.41 | 2.78 | 596 | 66 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 65 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 65 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 23.0% | 8.0% | 2.5% | .252 | 4.01 | 18.9% | 10.0% | 186 | +0.49 | 2.78 | 326 | 65 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 65 |
| John Axford R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.81 | 20.8% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.13 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 76 | +0.32 | 3.10 | 197 | 64 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 64 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 63 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 63 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 11.3% | 2.1% | .304 | 3.43 | 22.8% | 12.6% | 174 | -0.09 | 3.08 | 349 | 63 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.44 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .356 | 4.68 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 66 | +1.24 | 2.73 | 410 | 63 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 62 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.58 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .335 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -0.95 | 2.63 | 144 | 62 |
| Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 61 |
| Steve Cishek R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.03 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .234 | 3.81 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 155 | -0.22 | 2.80 | 453 | 61 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 60 |
| Jake Sanchez R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.79 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 3.4% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.86 | 361 | 59 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 127 | 23.1% | 12.9% | 1.22 | 4.74 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |