Colten Brewer — OGILVIE

Colten Brewer P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 33 RHP 6'4" / 222 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.47

FIP4.54

K%23.3%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%11.9%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4794.3

Whiff%

p5626.3%

p5523.2%

xwOBA vs

p420.321

SL+1.2 (27%)

SI (2%)

CU (29%)

CT-1.6 (3%)

FB-4.1 (41%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	A MLE	West Virginia Power	22	22	119	511	99	37	9	100%	5.4	14.3%	8.5%	5.8%	2.0%	4.90	4.08	—
2015	22	A RAW	West Virginia Power	22	22	119	511	99	37	9	100%	5.4	19.4%	7.2%	12.1%	1.8%	4.90	3.35	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	Bradenton Marauders	18	13	70	322	66	27	5	72%	3.9	15.8%	9.6%	6.1%	1.8%	4.09	3.96	—
2016	23	A+ RAW	Bradenton Marauders	18	13	70	322	66	27	5	72%	3.9	20.5%	8.4%	12.1%	1.6%	4.09	3.30	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	0	61	262	69	15	2	0%	1.5	19.6%	6.7%	12.9%	0.8%	2.82	2.72	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	0	61	262	69	15	2	0%	1.5	26.3%	5.7%	20.6%	0.8%	2.82	2.00	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	58	243	73	21	3	0%	1.2	28.6%	7.6%	21.0%	1.6%	4.06	2.54	+1.4
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	58	243	73	21	3	0%	1.2	30.0%	8.6%	21.4%	1.2%	4.06	2.34	+1.5
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	67	0	66	309	62	40	8	0%	1.0	19.7%	13.1%	6.6%	2.7%	4.25	4.56	-0.0
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	67	0	66	309	62	40	8	0%	1.0	20.1%	12.9%	7.1%	2.6%	4.25	4.62	-0.1
2020	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	11	4	26	122	25	14	6	36%	2.3	20.5%	11.5%	9.0%	5.0%	5.61	5.59	-0.3
2020	27	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	11	4	26	122	25	14	6	36%	2.3	20.5%	11.5%	9.0%	4.9%	5.61	5.83	-0.4
2021	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	1	26	119	28	15	2	6%	1.6	20.6%	12.3%	8.3%	2.2%	5.47	4.11	+0.1
2021	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	1	26	119	28	15	2	6%	1.6	23.5%	12.6%	10.9%	1.7%	5.47	3.67	+0.3
2022	29	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	36	0	40	169	42	18	7	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.2%	10.7%	4.6%	4.76	5.21	—
2022	29	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	36	0	40	169	42	18	7	0%	1.1	24.9%	10.7%	14.2%	4.1%	4.76	4.64	—
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	2	28	111	27	9	5	11%	1.6	24.8%	7.0%	17.8%	2.8%	2.22	3.44	+0.4
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	2	28	111	27	9	5	11%	1.6	24.8%	7.0%	17.8%	2.8%	2.22	3.44	+0.4
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	2	28	111	27	9	5	11%	1.6	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	4.5%	2.22	4.44	+0.0
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	39	171	42	17	3	0%	1.2	22.6%	9.5%	13.1%	1.8%	3.96	3.38	+0.5
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	39	171	42	17	3	0%	1.2	22.6%	9.5%	13.1%	1.8%	3.96	3.38	+0.5
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	39	171	42	17	3	0%	1.2	24.6%	9.9%	14.6%	1.8%	3.96	3.26	+0.6
2025	32	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	22	0	30	118	32	15	3	0%	1.3	22.5%	11.4%	11.1%	2.6%	3.94	4.08	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	22	0	30	118	32	15	3	0%	1.3	22.5%	11.4%	11.1%	2.6%	3.94	4.08	—
2025	32	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	22	0	30	118	32	15	3	0%	1.3	27.1%	12.7%	14.4%	2.5%	3.94	3.77	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			100	4	120	562	114	69	16	4%	1.2	20.3%	12.3%	8.0%	2.8%	5.10	4.66	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	NYY	11	0	12	51	12	6	1	0%	1.1	23.3%	11.4%	11.9%	2.9%	4.47	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	NYY	121	0	127	535	120	63	17	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.9%	10.5%	3.2%	4.70	4.85	-0.4
2028	35	MLB MLE	NYY	108	0	114	480	103	60	17	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.4%	9.0%	3.5%	4.99	5.18	-0.8
2027	34	MLB CTX	NYY	7	0	7	30	7	4	1	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.9%	10.5%	3.2%	4.70	4.85	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	NYY	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	21.4%	12.4%	9.0%	3.5%	4.99	5.18	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		108	4	128	596	122	73	17	4%	1.2	20.4%	12.3%	8.1%	2.9%	5.08	4.51	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		168	6	200	931	190	114	27	4%	1.2	20.4%	12.3%	8.1%	2.9%	5.08	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		331	42	562	2457	485	236	56	13%	1.7	19.7%	9.6%	10.1%	2.3%	4.21	3.90	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	15	200	874	173	84	20	13%	1.7	19.7%	9.6%	10.1%	2.3%	4.21	3.90	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Colten Brewer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	23.3%	11.4%	2.9%	—	5.01	21.9%	9.8%	241	+0.47	—	—	—
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	68
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	68
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	66
Carlos Torres R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	23.0%	8.0%	2.2%	.252	3.99	18.9%	10.0%	186	+0.59	2.89	326	66
Bryan Shaw R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	33	SU	4.39	21.3%	11.4%	3.0%	.274	3.93	19.2%	8.7%	169	-0.46	2.78	596	65
John Axford R 2016 · 3.87 FIP	33	SU	3.87	20.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.304	4.05	22.1%	11.3%	76	+0.18	3.20	197	65
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	65
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	65
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	65
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	64
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	64
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	64
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.58	22.0%	11.7%	191	+0.06	3.08	366	63
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	63
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	62
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	62
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	61
Joe Blanton R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	34	SW	3.45	22.4%	4.6%	3.0%	.272	3.70	23.5%	17.0%	124	+0.25	3.01	240	60
Javy Guerra R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	19.9%	4.9%	3.5%	.277	4.37	18.6%	8.6%	16	+0.42	2.95	260	60
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	127	22.4%	11.8%	1.23	4.70
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54