Noah Beal
P
Bowling Green Hot Rods
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 37 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%22.0%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%13.8%
ROS IP37
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 52 | 217 | 55 | 11 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 13.1% | 3.8% | 3.96 | 4.34 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 52 | 217 | 55 | 11 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.3% | 5.1% | 20.3% | 3.2% | 3.96 | 3.37 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 25 | 0 | 36 | 154 | 38 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.0% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 2.4% | 4.00 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | 35 | 0 | 37 | 155 | 34 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.0% | 8.2% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.38 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 73 | 309 | 72 | 27 | 8 | — | — | 23.4% | 8.7% | 14.7% | 2.5% | 4.19 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.0% | 8.2% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 3.99 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 35 | 0 | 37 | 157 | 35 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 8.2% | 14.3% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 8.2% | 14.3% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 14.3% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 3.93 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 74 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 14.3% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 57 | 0 | 88 | 371 | 71 | 29 | 12 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.0% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 3.97 | 4.26 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 129 | 0 | 200 | 840 | 160 | 66 | 27 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.0% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 3.97 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Noah Beal (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.31 | 22.6% | 14.3% | 37 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Breckin Williams R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .282 | 2.79 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.95 | 2.72 | 107 | 91 |
| Trey McLoughlin R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.89 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .295 | 4.73 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 95 | +0.84 | 3.78 | 217 | 90 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.3% | .282 | 5.34 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.57 | 3.77 | 105 | 90 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.31 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .262 | 6.15 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.84 | 3.31 | 207 | 89 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 89 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 89 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 88 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 88 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2028 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 88 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.08 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 100 | 88 |
| Micah Dallas R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.96 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .273 | 3.95 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 80 | -0.01 | 3.57 | 178 | 88 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.88 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.10 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.22 | 3.88 | 158 | 88 |
| Roman Mendez R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .275 | 4.62 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.50 | 4.12 | 230 | 88 |
| Mark McLaughlin R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.28 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 3.4% | .280 | 4.38 | 15.5% | 5.5% | 20 | +0.10 | 4.28 | 195 | 87 |
| Josh Advocate R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.58 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.59 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 75 | +0.01 | 3.58 | 118 | 87 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 87 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 214 | 87 |
| Luke Murphy R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .317 | 3.82 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 78 | +0.24 | 1.78 | 225 | 87 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 87 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.75 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .340 | 4.62 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.75 | 223 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 37 | 22.3% | 8.2% | 1.20 | 4.36 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |