Noah Beal — OGILVIE

Noah Beal P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.34

FIP4.34

K%19.9%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	52	217	55	11	7	0%	1.6	19.0%	5.9%	13.1%	3.9%	3.96	4.40	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	52	217	55	11	7	0%	1.6	19.0%	5.9%	13.1%	3.9%	3.96	4.40	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	52	217	55	11	7	0%	1.6	25.3%	5.1%	20.3%	3.2%	3.96	3.37	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	40	1	55	238	62	29	5	2%	1.4	20.1%	14.0%	6.0%	2.6%	3.76	4.62	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	40	1	55	238	62	29	5	2%	1.4	20.1%	14.0%	6.0%	2.6%	3.76	4.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	TB	40	1	55	238	62	29	5	2%	1.4	26.1%	12.2%	13.9%	2.1%	3.76	3.60	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TB	52	0	55	231	48	15	7	0%	1.1	20.8%	6.6%	14.1%	3.1%	4.29	4.27	+0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	52	0	55	231	49	16	7	0%	1.1	21.2%	6.8%	14.4%	3.1%	4.26	4.25	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	51	0	54	227	48	16	7	0%	1.1	21.3%	7.0%	14.3%	3.1%	4.28	4.29	+0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	TB	22	0	23	97	20	6	3	0%	1.0	20.8%	6.6%	14.1%	3.1%	4.29	4.27	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	34	0	36	152	32	10	5	0%	1.1	21.2%	6.8%	14.4%	3.1%	4.26	4.25	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	40	0	42	177	38	12	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	7.0%	14.3%	3.1%	4.28	4.29	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		97	0	101	428	90	29	13	0%	1.0	21.1%	6.8%	14.3%	3.1%	4.28	3.89	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	57	26	0%	1.1	21.1%	6.8%	14.3%	3.1%	4.28	3.89	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		72	1	107	455	89	46	15	1%	1.5	19.6%	10.1%	9.4%	3.2%	3.86	4.51	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	2	200	848	166	86	28	1%	1.5	19.6%	10.1%	9.4%	3.2%	3.86	4.51	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noah Beal (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	19.9%	6.5%	3.1%	—	4.27	21.1%	14.2%	163	-0.07	—	—	—
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	91
Matt Pierpont R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	17.8%	7.1%	3.1%	.295	3.25	21.7%	13.8%	190	-0.96	2.76	280	90
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	89
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	88
Silvino Bracho R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	24	SU	4.04	20.9%	6.6%	3.4%	.316	3.74	29.0%	20.6%	121	-0.30	2.49	395	88
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	88
Trey Cobb R 2018 · 4.45 FIP	24	SU	4.45	18.3%	4.9%	4.1%	.317	6.93	13.4%	3.6%	40	+2.48	3.94	192	87
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	87
Andres Avila R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	16.0%	5.2%	2.9%	.316	4.13	20.3%	13.9%	73	+0.15	3.98	177	87
Danny Hrbek R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	21.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	100	87
Ben Bracewell R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	24	SU	3.21	19.0%	6.3%	1.7%	.270	3.96	14.7%	7.4%	350	+0.75	3.21	538	87
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	87
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	86
Daniel Corcino R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	25	SU	4.37	17.2%	7.5%	3.2%	.238	4.76	19.4%	8.2%	263	+0.39	3.84	299	86
John Stankiewicz R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	24	SU	3.91	19.3%	6.6%	2.9%	.251	4.47	16.2%	7.1%	107	+0.56	2.78	271	85
Tyler Higgins R 2015 · 3.53 FIP	24	SU	3.53	15.9%	5.5%	2.0%	.289	3.97	15.6%	9.0%	168	+0.44	3.53	290	85
Trey McLoughlin R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	23.7%	8.4%	3.0%	.295	4.59	20.8%	8.4%	121	+0.80	3.77	244	85
Joe Colón J R 2015 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	19.4%	7.4%	1.6%	.312	4.07	20.7%	7.8%	65	+0.80	3.27	113	85
Juan Ramon Noriega R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	17.7%	7.4%	1.9%	.303	4.09	16.6%	9.3%	92	+0.48	3.44	198	85
Justin Courtney R 2021 · 4.58 FIP	25	SU	4.58	19.0%	5.9%	4.3%	.364	6.21	17.3%	5.0%	68	+1.63	4.58	108	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	20.8%	6.7%	1.20	4.29
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38