Ben Vespi
P
Frederick Keys
+0.5
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.24
FIP4.24
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.9%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%13.7%
IP62
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 31 | 2 | 63 | 272 | 80 | 21 | 3 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 1.5% | 2.84 | 3.23 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 4 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 8.53 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 60 | 24 | 7 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 69 | 298 | 66 | 27 | 8 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.64 | 3.85 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 61 | 24 | 7 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.22 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 60 | 24 | 7 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 59 | 24 | 7 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 60 | — | 60 | 251 | 58 | 23 | 7 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 56 | 23 | 7 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 53 | 22 | 7 | 22.6% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 50 | 22 | 7 | 22.3% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 47 | 21 | 7 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 44 | 21 | 7 | 21.6% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 41 | 20 | 7 | 21.2% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 38 | 19 | 6 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 35 | 2 | 70 | 307 | 66 | 28 | 5 | 21.4% | 9.1% | 1.6% | 3.36 | 3.35 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 100 | 6 | 200 | 881 | 189 | 80 | 14 | 21.4% | 9.1% | 1.6% | 3.36 | 3.35 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ben Vespi (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.24 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.24 | 23.1% | 14.0% | 185 | +0.00 | — | — | — |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 94 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 91 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 91 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 90 |
| Alex Phillips R 2025 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.34 | 3.26 | 139 | 90 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .284 | 3.18 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 103 | -0.81 | 3.13 | 179 | 89 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 89 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 88 |
| Josh Martin R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.10 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.0% | .257 | 2.97 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 2.43 | 225 | 88 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.40 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .293 | 5.06 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 115 | +1.66 | 3.40 | 258 | 88 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.64 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .250 | 3.83 | 24.1% | 12.5% | 118 | +0.19 | 1.48 | 230 | 88 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 87 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 87 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.37 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 134 | 87 |
| Matt Pierpont R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.50 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .295 | 3.39 | 21.6% | 13.6% | 156 | -0.11 | 2.79 | 280 | 87 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 87 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.97 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .255 | 4.63 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.66 | 3.16 | 253 | 87 |
| Trent Harris R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.46 | 26.9% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .258 | 3.75 | 23.1% | 14.7% | 57 | +0.29 | 3.46 | 134 | 87 |
| Casey Cobb R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.52 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .261 | 5.56 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 118 | +2.04 | 3.52 | 191 | 87 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.2 | $1.0M | -$0.0M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.0M |
| Totals | $5M | $9M | +$4M | ||