Sam Brown — OGILVIE

Sam Brown1B Harrisburg Senators

Age 24 L/L 6'2" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION371 act + 8 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.143 / .250 / .143

PA8

HR0

K%25

BB%12

BABIP285

ISO100

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	22	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	505	440	94	23	2	4	44	105	12	5	0	214	302	302	605	89	266	21	9	276	73	-16	+1	—	—	+11	-0.4
2025	23	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	509	434	114	20	6	8	61	89	8	3	1	263	364	392	756	129	309	17	12	340	116	+10	+0	—	—	+11	2.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	505	453	84	19	2	3	31	131	12	5	0	185	256	256	512	71	241	26	6	230	42	-35	+1	—	—	+11	-2.3
2025	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	509	452	111	20	6	7	43	109	8	3	1	246	322	363	685	117	298	21	8	301	90	-6	+0	—	—	+11	0.5
2024	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	505	453	84	19	2	3	31	131	12	5	0	185	256	256	512	71	248	26	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	505	440	94	23	2	4	44	105	12	5	0	214	302	302	605	89	266	21	9	276	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	509	452	111	20	6	7	43	109	8	3	1	246	322	363	685	117	304	21	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	—	509	434	114	20	6	8	61	89	8	3	1	263	364	392	756	129	309	17	12	340	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	505	457	84	19	2	3	31	131	12	5	0	184	256	254	510	70	241	26	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	509	453	111	20	6	7	43	109	8	3	1	245	322	362	684	117	298	21	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	505	457	84	19	2	3	31	131	12	5	0	184	256	254	510	70	241	26	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	509	453	111	20	6	7	43	109	8	3	1	245	322	362	684	117	298	21	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	WSH	—	371	331	72	17	0	7	35	104	2	0	1	218	296	332	629	115	291	28	9	277	74	-12	-0	+0	-7	+8	-1.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA RAW	WSH	—	371	316	78	19	0	9	50	85	2	0	1	247	353	392	746	146	307	23	13	336	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	24	AA MLE	WSH	2%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	143	250	143	393		286	25	12	279	75	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	24	AA MLE	WSH	—	379	338	73	17	0	7	36	106	2	0	1	216	295	328	624	112	289	28	9	277	74	-12	-0	-0	-7	+8	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	WSH	31%	370	331	73	16	1	7	32	97	4	2	1	221	297	338	635	118	286	26	9	286	79	-9	+0	-1	-7	+8	-0.8
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	45%	407	364	81	17	2	8	36	105	4	3	1	223	300	346	646	124	286	26	9	290	82	-9	+0	-1	-7	+9	-0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	49%	420	376	85	18	2	9	37	108	4	3	2	226	302	356	659	130	286	26	9	292	83	-8	-0	-1	-8	+9	-0.8
2027	25	MLB CTX	WSH	31%	115	103	22	5	0	2	10	30	1	1	0	214	289	320	610	107	285	26	9	278	79	-3	+0	-0	-2	+2	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	45%	181	161	37	8	1	4	16	47	2	1	1	230	307	366	674	137	285	26	9	282	82	-4	-0	-0	-3	+4	-0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	49%	207	185	42	9	1	4	18	53	2	2	1	227	302	351	654	124	285	26	9	283	83	-4	+0	-0	-4	+4	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	503	449	101	22	2	10	44	130	5	4	2	225	301	350	651	125	292	26	9	281	75	-11	+0	-1	-9	+11	-1.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	131	28	3	13	57	168	6	5	3	226	302	352	653	126	293	26	9	281	75	-14	+0	-1	-12	+14	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2219	1983	435	90	13	34	180	552	32	16	5	219	295	329	624	110	283	25	8	278	75	-26	+0	-2	-22	+26	-2.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	127	26	4	10	53	162	9	5	1	219	294	329	623	110	282	25	8	278	75	-14	+0	-1	-12	+14	-1.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#2Casey Kotchmanlast yr '12 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,391 PA	5.1	3,391	71	14	262	328	388	-61	-28	1.3	3.3
/162	664	14	3	-11.9	-5.5	0.3	pk7: 5
#3Gaby Sanchezlast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,240 PA	3.4	2,240	59	12	254	332	411	-40	-26	2.2	2.2
/162	664	17	4	-11.9	-7.8	0.6	pk7: 2
#4Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	3.6	2,377	81	7	239	332	416	-42	-36	1.7	1.7
/162	664	23	2	-11.9	-10.1	0.5	pk7: 2
#5Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	3.5	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
/162	664	21	5	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.8	509	10	3	223	296	344	-9	+0	-0.5	-0.3
/162	664	13	4	-11.9	+0.0	-0.7	pk7: 0
#6Domonic Brownlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,748 PA	2.6	1,748	54	23	246	305	405	-19	-39	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	21	9	-7.1	-14.7	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sam Brown (OGILVIE)	24	40→50	40	40	60	214/289/319	105	286	5	1	27%	9%	75	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris McGuiness 2012 · A	24	42→48	42→45	43→30	47	207/282/308	101	279	10	4	28%	9%	69	-0.9	217/289/345	128	278	13	2	25%	9%	80	-0.2	218/292/350	132	270	13	0	23%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Danny Hayes 2016 · AA	25	46→47	41→45	40→30	51	219/300/324	105	293	8	2	26%	10%	79	-0.2	204/279/329	125	283	13	2	30%	9%	73	-0.6	182/256/317	135	249	16	0	32%	9%	60	-1.0
✕Nick Maton 2021 · AA	24	43→42	41→50	45	44	209/271/304	95	284	8	9	28%	7%	63	-1.3	210/292/333	123	284	11	7	28%	9%	78	-0.3	208/300/350	141	261	16	4	25%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Josh Fellhauer 2012 · AA	24	48→53	39→40	40→45	45	230/281/313	83	288	6	8	22%	6%	69	-0.9	251/311/331	80	324	4	7	22%	8%	84	+0.1	261/327/339	78	341	3	5	22%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Mike Papi 2017 · AA	24	39→47	44→45	44→45	48	193/275/312	119	272	11	5	31%	10%	68	-1.0	215/291/324	109	288	10	5	27%	9%	76	-0.4	216/293/312	97	283	9	4	25%	9%	73	-0.3
✕Jeremy Vasquez 2021 · AA	25	46	39→45	41→30	48	218/286/308	90	281	6	4	24%	8%	70	-0.8	214/277/313	99	275	8	3	24%	8%	68	-1.0	208/272/304	95	264	8	1	23%	8%	62	-0.9
✕Ernie De La Trinidad 2021 · AA	25	45→53	40	39→40	45	219/283/306	87	278	8	5	24%	7%	68	-1.0	223/285/332	109	309	11	8	30%	5%	76	-0.4	221/285/327	106	309	11	5	30%	5%	72	-0.4
✕Carson Taylor 2023 · AA	24	48	42→45	47→40	46	232/295/331	99	307	10	3	26%	8%	78	-0.3	223/294/337	114	293	13	5	27%	9%	80	-0.1	208/289/322	113	271	13	3	27%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Darius Hill 2022 · AA	24	49→58	40	44→45	42	240/277/321	81	295	8	6	22%	5%	68	-1.0	252/292/346	94	306	6	6	19%	5%	80	-0.2	253/295/344	91	308	4	5	18%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Justin Howard 2012 · A	24	47	39→45	44→45	48	220/290/311	91	309	5	7	28%	9%	72	-0.7	238/303/338	100	327	7	7	27%	8%	83	+0.1	243/307/347	105	330	8	5	27%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Dominic D'Anna 2013 · A	24	49	41→40	46→40	49	231/308/334	102	306	8	4	25%	9%	84	+0.2	214/276/313	99	293	9	6	28%	7%	68	-1.0	174/221/249	74	232	8	0	28%	5%	31	-1.1
✕Brad Nelson 2007 · AAA	24	47→49	43→50	43→50	50	226/301/337	110	295	10	8	26%	9%	82	+0.0	219/279/358	139	268	16	10	24%	8%	79	-0.2	216/284/370	154	258	19	2	24%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Conrad Gregor 2017 · AA	25	43→53	43→45	45→40	50	212/279/329	117	256	10	3	21%	8%	72	-0.7	211/280/331	120	267	12	8	24%	8%	74	-0.6	241/318/396	155	294	18	12	23%	9%	99	+0.3
✕Tyler Durna 2021 · A	24	49→41	40	41→40	46	233/290/327	94	285	6	6	20%	6%	76	-0.4	213/288/300	87	278	7	5	24%	9%	69	-0.9	196/282/266	70	255	6	2	23%	10%	57	-1.3
✕Connor Marabell 2018 · AAA	24	49→55	40→45	44→45	44	236/274/336	100	283	7	8	19%	5%	71	-0.8	238/273/355	117	274	10	7	17%	4%	76	-0.4	250/284/373	123	288	11	6	17%	4%	80	-0.1
✕Mark Ori 2008 · A	24	48→54	42→45	42→40	43	234/286/339	104	291	9	4	23%	6%	77	-0.3	241/291/336	95	307	7	3	23%	6%	78	-0.3	242/292/330	87	311	6	2	23%	5%	74	-0.5
✕Jim Gallagher 2010 · AA	24	47→54	44→45	45	44	233/279/356	123	282	12	5	22%	6%	78	-0.3	233/293/336	103	285	8	6	20%	7%	78	-0.3	228/293/322	94	276	6	6	19%	8%	73	-0.5
✕Sawyer Carroll 2011 · AA	25	48→55	41→45	42→45	45	230/291/335	105	312	7	6	28%	8%	78	-0.3	222/279/346	124	281	12	9	24%	7%	76	-0.4	216/270/349	133	262	14	11	23%	7%	70	-0.7
✕Whitney Robbins 2009 · A	24	46→51	40	46→30	52	218/304/313	95	280	7	4	23%	10%	78	-0.3	227/287/324	97	278	8	3	20%	7%	74	-0.5	243/292/344	101	292	9	0	19%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Bobby Melley 2017 · A	23	48	41→45	43→30	45	232/293/332	100	293	8	3	23%	6%	78	-0.3	221/285/309	88	294	7	4	25%	7%	70	-0.9	207/278/275	68	270	8	0	25%	8%	59	-0.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps