Sam Brown — OGILVIE

Sam Brown1B Harrisburg Senators

Age 24 L/L 6'2" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION246 act + 164 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .301 / .322

PA164

HR2

K%28

BB%9

BABIP303

ISO103

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	22	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	505	451	80	17	2	4	33	143	12	5	0	177	252	251	503	73	244	28	7	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	505	440	94	23	2	4	44	105	12	5	0	214	302	302	605	89	266	21	9	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	509	451	113	23	7	8	44	116	8	3	1	251	328	386	714	135	315	23	9	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	509	434	114	20	6	8	61	89	8	3	1	263	364	392	756	129	309	17	12	340	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	AA	WSH	—	246	217	46	10	0	3	26	74	2	0	1	212	302	300	602	88	305	30	11	267	63	-10	-0	+0	-4	+7	-0.8
YTD	24	AA	WSH	—	246	206	49	11	0	3	37	57	2	0	1	238	359	335	694	97	313	23	15	322	105	+1	-0	+0	-4	+7	0.4
ROS	24	AA	WSH	2%	164	146	32	7	1	2	15	46	2	1	0	219	301	322	623	103	291	28	9	276	69	-6	+0	-0	-3	+5	-0.4
ROS	24	MLB	WSH	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						291	33	0	267	62	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	24	AA	WSH	—	249	220	46	10	0	3	26	75	2	0	1	209	298	295	594	86	301	30	10	267	63	-11	-0	-0	-4	+7	-0.9
TOT	24	AA	WSH	—	410	363	78	17	1	5	41	120	4	1	1	215	301	309	610	94	304	29	10	270	65	-16	-0	-0	-7	+12	-1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	WSH	31%	370	329	72	15	2	6	34	101	4	2	1	219	300	331	631	112	291	27	9	284	75	-10	+0	-1	-7	+10	-0.7
2028	26	MLB	WSH	45%	407	362	79	16	2	7	37	109	5	3	1	218	300	331	631	113	291	27	9	289	79	-10	+0	-1	-7	+12	-0.6
2029	27	MLB	WSH	49%	420	373	83	17	2	8	39	112	5	4	2	223	305	343	648	121	291	27	9	291	81	-9	+0	-1	-8	+12	-0.6
2027	25	MLB	WSH	31%	115	103	23	5	1	2	10	31	1	1	0	223	298	350	648	126	291	27	9	275	69	-4	+0	-0	-2	+3	-0.3
2028	26	MLB	WSH	45%	181	161	35	7	1	3	16	49	2	1	1	217	296	329	625	112	291	27	9	280	73	-6	-0	-0	-3	+5	-0.4
2029	27	MLB	WSH	49%	207	184	41	8	1	4	19	55	2	2	1	223	302	342	645	120	291	27	9	282	74	-6	+0	-0	-4	+6	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	506	451	99	20	3	9	45	136	5	4	2	220	297	337	634	118	291	27	9	280	72	-16	+0	-1	-9	+14	-1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	128	26	4	12	58	175	6	5	3	221	299	342	641	121	293	27	9	280	72	-20	-0	-1	-12	+18	-1.5
Career	—			—	2375	2112	459	95	16	35	202	627	36	18	5	217	297	327	624	110	288	26	9	278	71	-77	+2	-2	-42	+67	-5.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	126	26	4	10	55	172	10	5	1	218	297	329	625	111	289	26	8	278	71	-21	+1	-1	-12	+18	-1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	22	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	505	440	94	23	2	4	44	105	12	5	0	214	302	302	605	89	266	21	9	276	69	-17	+1	—	—	+14	-0.2
2025	23	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	509	434	114	20	6	8	61	89	8	3	1	263	364	392	756	129	309	17	12	340	118	+10	+0	—	—	+14	2.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#2Justin Smoaklast yr '20 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,750 PA	11	4,750	196	3	229	322	419	-85	-77	1.9	3.8
	/162	664	27	0	229	322	419	-11.9	-10.7	0.3	pk7: 6
#3Casey Kotchmanlast yr '12 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,391 PA	9	3,391	71	14	262	328	388	-61	-28	1.3	3.3
	/162	664	14	3	262	328	388	-11.9	-5.5	0.3	pk7: 5
#4Gaby Sanchezlast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,240 PA	5	2,240	59	12	254	332	411	-40	-26	2.2	2.2
	/162	664	17	4	254	332	411	-11.9	-7.8	0.6	pk7: 2
#5Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	6	2,377	81	7	239	332	416	-42	-36	1.7	1.7
#5Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	/162	664	23	2	239	332	416	-11.9	-10.1	0.5	pk7: 2
#6Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	6	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
	/162	664	21	5	238	305	421	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	509	9	4	221	298	336	-9	+0	-0.7	-0.4
	/162	664	12	5	221	298	336	-11.9	+0.0	-0.9	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sam Brown (OGILVIE)	24	40→50	40	40	60	215/301/309	94	304	5	1	29%	10%	65	-1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris McGuiness 2012 · A	24	41→47	41→50	43→30	47	200/275/293	92	273	8	4	28%	9%	58	-1.2	215/286/346	131	278	14	2	26%	9%	76	+0.1	216/291/358	142	268	15	0	24%	9%	79	+0.3
✕Mike Papi 2017 · AA	24	38→47	44→45	44→45	47	192/275/315	123	272	12	5	32%	10%	64	-0.8	219/294/333	114	295	11	5	28%	9%	76	+0.1	221/296/324	103	291	10	4	26%	9%	73	-0.1
✕Danny Hayes 2016 · AA	25	46→48	42→45	40→30	50	221/301/332	111	299	9	2	27%	10%	79	+0.3	206/280/341	135	288	14	2	31%	9%	72	-0.2	183/257/331	148	251	18	0	33%	9%	58	-0.7
✕Ernie De La Trinidad 2021 · AA	25	45→52	40	39→40	45	219/283/307	88	282	8	5	25%	7%	65	-0.7	222/285/332	110	315	11	8	31%	6%	72	-0.2	217/284/325	108	312	12	5	32%	5%	67	-0.3
✕Justin Howard 2012 · A	24	47	38→45	44→45	48	220/289/304	84	309	4	7	28%	9%	66	-0.6	235/297/340	105	329	8	7	29%	7%	79	+0.3	238/298/353	115	331	10	5	29%	7%	79	+0.1
✕Tyler Durna 2021 · A	24	49→41	40	41→40	46	234/292/330	95	287	7	6	20%	6%	74	-0.1	214/290/302	88	278	8	5	24%	9%	66	-0.6	197/284/268	71	254	7	2	23%	10%	53	-1.0
✕Jeremy Vasquez 2021 · AA	25	44→47	39→45	41→30	48	210/280/298	88	278	6	4	25%	8%	61	-1.0	217/278/322	105	280	9	3	24%	8%	66	-0.6	214/275/318	104	271	9	1	24%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Conrad Gregor 2017 · AA	25	43→53	43→45	45→40	50	211/280/329	117	259	10	3	22%	8%	69	-0.4	210/279/332	122	269	12	8	25%	8%	70	-0.3	235/310/394	159	289	18	12	24%	9%	95	+0.3
✕Nick Maton 2021 · AA	24	42	41→50	45	44	206/270/300	94	283	8	9	29%	8%	57	-1.2	211/291/339	128	285	12	7	28%	9%	77	+0.1	215/306/369	154	265	18	4	25%	10%	89	+0.6
✕Dominic D'Anna 2013 · A	24	49	40	46→40	50	232/310/330	98	310	7	4	26%	9%	82	+0.5	214/275/309	95	296	8	6	28%	7%	62	-0.9	172/215/241	69	232	7	0	29%	4%	17	-1.2
✕Josh Fellhauer 2012 · AA	24	48→53	38→40	40→45	45	229/280/310	81	289	5	8	22%	6%	63	-0.8	254/314/335	81	332	4	7	23%	8%	84	+0.6	267/331/347	80	352	3	5	23%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Mark Ori 2008 · A	24	48→54	42→45	42→40	43	234/286/339	104	291	9	4	23%	6%	74	-0.1	238/289/332	94	306	7	3	23%	6%	73	-0.1	236/287/322	86	306	6	2	23%	5%	66	-0.5
✕Whitney Robbins 2009 · A	24	46→50	40	46→30	52	218/304/313	95	280	7	4	23%	10%	76	+0.0	227/287/328	101	279	9	3	21%	7%	72	-0.2	242/291/350	108	293	10	0	20%	6%	76	+0.1
✕Cornelius Randolph 2021 · AA	24	43→48	41→45	46→45	42	209/269/304	95	294	8	9	30%	7%	58	-1.2	206/266/322	116	338	12	12	39%	7%	62	-0.9	194/257/314	120	296	15	15	37%	8%	53	-0.5
✕Jim Gallagher 2010 · AA	24	47→53	45	45	44	233/279/356	123	282	12	5	22%	6%	76	+0.0	232/291/340	108	282	9	6	20%	7%	76	+0.1	227/291/327	100	273	8	6	19%	8%	70	-0.3
✕Jaycob Brugman 2016 · AA	24	44→49	43→50	47→45	43	215/267/325	110	281	10	8	27%	6%	62	-0.9	232/285/344	112	306	10	8	26%	7%	75	-0.0	236/290/349	113	311	11	7	27%	7%	75	+0.0
✕Bobby Melley 2017 · A	23	48	41→45	43→30	45	232/293/332	100	293	8	3	23%	6%	76	+0.0	221/284/309	88	295	7	4	26%	7%	66	-0.6	207/276/273	66	273	8	0	26%	8%	53	-0.5
✕Darius Hill 2022 · AA	24	50→59	40→45	44→45	41	242/278/326	84	302	9	6	23%	5%	66	-0.6	255/295/354	99	311	6	6	19%	5%	81	+0.4	256/299/352	96	311	5	5	19%	5%	78	+0.2
✕Carson Taylor 2023 · AA	24	49→47	42→45	47→40	45	236/298/340	104	317	11	3	28%	8%	79	+0.3	222/294/339	117	298	13	5	28%	9%	78	+0.2	207/288/318	111	272	13	3	27%	9%	68	-0.2
✕JT Schwartz 2023 · A	23	44→47	40→50	45	44	210/271/305	95	277	7	5	26%	7%	59	-1.1	227/293/342	115	282	10	7	22%	7%	78	+0.2	223/296/347	123	269	11	6	21%	8%	78	+0.1