Alexander Alberto

P Durham Bulls

Age 25 RHP 6'8" / 203 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTFG #690

Scout OFP41ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	24	0	34	2.67	2.60	25.9%	13.3%	—	K 18.5% · BB 16.1% · FIP 3.58
2025	23	MIX2 levels	42	0	49	2.59	2.03	30.6%	10.0%	—	K 23.3% · BB 11.6% · FIP 2.96
2026	24	MIX2 levels	49	5	60	3.43	2.98	28.6%	9.5%	—	K 23.8% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.45
2027PROJ	25	MLBTB	67	0	70	4.36	4.36	25.2%	11.9%	0.2
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBTB	32	0	34	4.34	4.33	25.3%	11.6%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBTB	44	0	46	4.36	4.37	25.1%	11.5%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff58Control42Command35FB velo70

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 90%

CompsGarrett Mock (age 25) · Jesus Pirela (age 26) · Barrett Loseke (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%25.2%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%13.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF6060

CTRL—45

CMD3035

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	14	2	26	123	21	19	0	14%	1.8	11.6%	19.3%	-7.7%	0.0%	4.21	4.57	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 1	14	2	26	123	21	19	0	14%	1.8	17.1%	15.4%	1.6%	0.0%	4.21	3.68	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	13	10	36	169	40	22	1	77%	2.8	16.1%	16.3%	-0.2%	0.9%	6.44	4.31	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	13	10	36	169	40	22	1	77%	2.8	23.7%	13.0%	10.7%	0.6%	6.44	3.07	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	11	3	28	121	32	23	0	27%	2.5	18.0%	23.8%	-5.8%	0.0%	5.79	4.59	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	11	3	28	121	32	23	0	27%	2.5	26.4%	19.0%	7.4%	0.0%	5.79	3.28	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	34	143	37	19	0	0%	1.4	18.5%	16.1%	2.4%	0.0%	2.67	3.58	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	34	143	37	19	0	0%	1.4	18.5%	16.1%	2.4%	0.0%	2.67	3.58	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	34	143	37	19	0	0%	1.4	25.9%	13.3%	12.6%	0.0%	2.67	2.60	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	49	209	64	21	1	0%	1.2	23.3%	11.6%	11.7%	0.6%	2.59	2.96	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	49	209	64	21	1	0%	1.2	23.3%	11.6%	11.7%	0.6%	2.59	2.96	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	49	209	64	21	1	0%	1.2	30.6%	10.0%	20.6%	0.5%	2.59	2.03	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	5	60	252	72	24	5	10%	1.2	23.8%	9.2%	14.6%	2.2%	3.43	3.45	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	5	60	252	72	24	5	10%	1.2	23.8%	9.2%	14.6%	2.2%	3.43	3.45	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	5	60	252	72	24	5	10%	1.2	28.6%	9.5%	19.0%	2.0%	3.43	2.98	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TB	67	0	70	296	75	35	8	0%	1.0	25.2%	11.9%	13.4%	2.7%	4.36	4.36	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	67	0	70	296	75	34	8	0%	1.0	25.3%	11.6%	13.7%	2.8%	4.34	4.33	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	66	0	69	291	73	33	8	0%	1.0	25.1%	11.5%	13.6%	2.8%	4.36	4.37	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	TB	64	0	67	282	70	33	8	0%	1.0	24.9%	11.5%	13.4%	2.9%	4.41	4.45	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	TB	61	0	64	270	66	32	8	0%	1.0	24.6%	11.7%	13.0%	3.1%	4.51	4.58	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	32	0	34	144	36	17	4	0%	1.1	25.3%	11.6%	13.7%	2.8%	4.34	4.33	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	44	0	46	194	49	22	6	0%	1.0	25.1%	11.5%	13.6%	2.8%	4.36	4.37	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	TB	50	0	52	220	55	25	6	0%	1.0	24.9%	11.5%	13.4%	2.9%	4.41	4.45	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	TB	50	0	53	224	55	26	7	0%	1.1	24.6%	11.7%	13.0%	3.1%	4.51	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		175	0	184	777	194	90	23	0%	1.1	24.9%	11.6%	13.4%	2.9%	4.41	4.06	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	211	98	25	0%	1.1	24.9%	11.6%	13.4%	2.9%	4.41	4.06	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		153	20	233	1017	198	151	8	13%	1.5	19.5%	14.8%	4.7%	0.8%	3.98	3.78	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	17	200	874	170	129	7	13%	1.5	19.5%	14.8%	4.7%	0.8%	3.98	3.78	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexander Alberto (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	25.2%	11.9%	2.7%	—	4.38	25.1%	13.6%	206	+0.02	—	—	—
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	90
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	88
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	86
Steven Wilson R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	27.2%	10.7%	3.3%	.271	3.81	29.3%	19.9%	92	-0.18	3.64	331	85
Yoervis Medina R 2013 · 3.44 FIP	25	SU	3.44	24.4%	11.3%	1.8%	.242	3.73	21.1%	10.3%	118	+0.29	3.01	186	85
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	85
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	85
Zach Franklin R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	26.4%	10.9%	1.8%	.301	4.15	27.5%	18.3%	117	+0.91	3.24	158	85
Lucas Wepf R 2024 · 3.80 FIP	24	SU	3.80	27.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.304	4.09	25.4%	11.8%	80	+0.29	2.90	195	85
Dusty Isaacs R 2017 · 4.00 FIP	25	SU	4.00	23.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.255	4.62	21.6%	9.9%	86	+0.62	3.16	253	85
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	84
Luis Ramirez R 2016 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	104	84
Frank Francisco R 2004 · 3.30 FIP	24	SU	3.30	27.8%	12.0%	1.8%	.254	3.78	18.3%	5.6%	59	+0.48	2.92	369	84
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.09	246	84
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	84
Shawn Tolleson R 2012 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	24.4%	11.9%	2.4%	.265	3.47	24.4%	18.5%	144	-0.39	3.05	218	83
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.56	20.2%	4.0%	131	+0.72	3.70	201	83
Taylor Floyd R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	21.7%	10.8%	3.1%	.331	4.61	18.4%	8.9%	192	+0.27	3.48	359	83
Eric Orze R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	25.6%	13.6%	2.4%	.319	3.57	24.1%	14.8%	196	-0.41	3.33	354	83
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	25.0%	11.6%	1.11	4.39
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Mike Dunn ('19)	2.2	62	24.9%	11.8%	0.97	4.00
Brandon Workman ('21)	1.6	55	24.3%	11.1%	1.04	4.02
Bill Kelso ('64-'68, 1 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.1%*	11.6%*	1.09*	4.19*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*