Ismael Luciano — OGILVIE

Ismael Luciano P Spokane Indians

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 156147vR 139

ERA6.45

FIP6.45

K%10.7%

BB%18.1%

K-BB%-7.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL3030

CMD2020

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	16	3	22	101	24	9	6	19%	1.4	16.2%	11.1%	5.0%	7.3%	7.36	7.16	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	16	3	22	101	24	9	6	19%	1.4	23.8%	8.9%	14.9%	5.9%	7.36	5.69	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	11	10	48	212	49	25	3	91%	4.4	15.7%	14.7%	1.0%	1.6%	4.31	4.52	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	11	10	48	212	49	25	3	91%	4.4	23.1%	11.8%	11.3%	1.4%	4.31	3.43	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	8	5	16	72	13	8	2	62%	2.0	12.3%	13.9%	-1.6%	3.8%	6.19	5.89	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	8	5	16	72	13	8	2	62%	2.0	12.3%	13.9%	-1.6%	3.8%	6.19	5.89	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	8	5	16	72	13	8	2	62%	2.0	18.1%	11.1%	6.9%	2.8%	6.19	4.60	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	9	82	379	83	45	10	43%	3.9	15.4%	14.5%	0.8%	3.5%	6.12	5.55	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	9	82	379	83	45	10	43%	3.9	15.4%	14.5%	0.8%	3.5%	6.12	5.55	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	9	82	379	83	45	10	43%	3.9	21.9%	11.9%	10.0%	2.6%	6.12	4.30	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	7	63	299	48	39	3	30%	2.7	11.5%	15.2%	-3.8%	1.7%	5.60	4.97	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	7	63	299	48	39	3	30%	2.7	11.5%	15.2%	-3.8%	1.7%	5.60	4.97	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	7	63	299	48	39	3	30%	2.7	16.1%	13.0%	3.0%	1.0%	5.60	4.06	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	30	0	43	212	48	37	4	0%	1.4	16.3%	20.8%	-4.5%	2.4%	7.53	5.69	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	30	0	43	212	48	37	4	0%	1.4	16.3%	20.8%	-4.5%	2.4%	7.53	5.69	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	COL	14	0	20	88	27	15	1	0%	1.4	30.7%	17.0%	13.6%	1.1%	2.75	3.29	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	COL	16	0	23	124	21	22	3	0%	1.5	16.9%	17.7%	-0.8%	2.4%	11.57	5.25	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	COL	5	0	6	24	3	4	1	0%	1.1	10.7%	18.1%	-7.3%	2.9%	6.45	6.45	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	49	236	51	41	5	—	—	21.4%	17.5%	3.9%	2.0%	7.41	5.78	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	COL	72	0	76	321	44	52	9	0%	1.1	13.6%	16.2%	-2.6%	2.9%	6.07	5.96	-1.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	73	0	77	325	50	49	9	0%	1.1	15.4%	15.1%	0.3%	2.9%	5.78	5.66	-0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	73	0	77	325	53	48	9	0%	1.1	16.4%	14.7%	1.7%	2.9%	5.61	5.54	-0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	COL	72	0	76	320	53	47	9	0%	1.1	16.6%	14.7%	1.9%	2.9%	5.56	5.55	-0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	COL	70	0	74	310	51	46	9	0%	1.1	16.4%	14.8%	1.6%	3.0%	5.60	5.63	-0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	COL	67	0	70	296	48	45	9	0%	1.0	16.2%	15.0%	1.1%	3.2%	5.70	5.76	-0.9
2033	30	MLB MLE	COL	63	0	66	279	44	43	9	0%	1.0	15.8%	15.3%	0.5%	3.4%	5.84	5.94	-1.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	COL	31	0	33	139	19	23	4	0%	1.1	13.6%	16.2%	-2.6%	2.9%	6.07	5.96	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	49	0	51	215	33	32	6	0%	1.0	15.4%	15.1%	0.3%	2.9%	5.78	5.66	-0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	58	0	61	258	42	38	7	0%	1.1	16.4%	14.7%	1.7%	2.9%	5.61	5.54	-0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	COL	62	0	65	274	45	40	8	0%	1.0	16.6%	14.7%	1.9%	2.9%	5.56	5.55	-0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	COL	62	0	65	274	45	41	8	0%	1.0	16.4%	14.8%	1.6%	3.0%	5.60	5.63	-0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	COL	61	0	64	270	44	41	9	0%	1.0	16.2%	15.0%	1.1%	3.2%	5.70	5.76	-0.8
2033	30	MLB CTX	COL	58	0	61	258	41	40	9	0%	1.1	15.8%	15.3%	0.5%	3.4%	5.84	5.94	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		381	0	400	1687	269	254	51	0%	1.0	16.0%	15.0%	0.9%	3.0%	5.71	5.32	-3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	135	127	26	0%	1.1	16.0%	15.0%	0.9%	3.0%	5.71	5.32	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		109	34	274	1275	186	197	37	31%	2.5	14.6%	15.5%	-0.9%	2.9%	6.01	5.41	-7.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	25	200	931	135	144	27	31%	2.5	14.6%	15.5%	-0.9%	2.9%	6.01	5.41	-2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ismael Luciano (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.45	10.7%	18.1%	2.9%	—	5.72	15.1%	-0.2%	230	-0.73	—	—	—
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	85
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	84
Jon Keller R 2016 · 5.48 FIP	23	SW	5.48	15.3%	20.9%	1.9%	.265	3.84	8.9%	-2.9%	15	-1.64	3.64	156	83
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	82
Dylan Rheault R 2015 · 5.75 FIP	23	SU	5.75	6.5%	14.9%	2.4%	.288	4.11	14.1%	4.8%	96	-1.64	3.88	198	81
Eli Saul R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	21	SW	5.41	12.6%	14.2%	2.9%	.305	5.39	13.8%	-2.9%	98	-0.02	5.30	157	80
Alexis Liebano R 2023 · 6.15 FIP	20	SU	6.15	11.8%	24.2%	1.8%	.312	6.00	17.7%	3.8%	112	-0.15	4.80	142	78
German Taveras R 2016 · 6.41 FIP	23	SU	6.41	10.9%	15.7%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	108	78
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	78
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	78
Miguel Mora R 2023 · 6.90 FIP	21	SU	6.90	10.5%	26.8%	2.4%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	151	78
Taylor Hawkins R 2017 · 5.98 FIP	23	SU	5.98	7.4%	19.5%	1.9%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	5.38	112	77
Frank Martinez R 2023 · 5.44 FIP	21	SW	5.44	10.4%	20.3%	1.2%	.360	5.35	17.9%	2.0%	114	-0.09	3.30	135	77
Ronny Lopez R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	20	SW	5.33	15.1%	20.6%	1.6%	.232	5.01	13.7%	-5.7%	85	-0.32	4.23	121	77
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	76
Pedro Garcia R 2018 · 6.06 FIP	23	SW	6.06	12.6%	24.0%	1.8%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	144	75
Blake Bivens R 2019 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	10.5%	16.5%	2.6%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	336	75
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	74
Connor Eller R 2017 · 5.63 FIP	23	SU	5.63	9.7%	15.9%	2.4%	.271	3.79	11.5%	2.3%	80	-1.84	3.79	170	74
Dallas Woolfolk R 2021 · 6.62 FIP	24	SU	6.62	12.9%	21.9%	3.3%	.324	5.12	14.0%	0.7%	50	-1.50	5.12	100	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	72	15.2%	15.4%	1.16	5.81
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59