Ismael Luciano
P
ACL Rockies
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 170 lbs
ROK
2026 ROS PROJECTION26 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 162153vR 143
ERA6.40
FIP6.40
K%10.7%
BB%17.5%
K-BB%-6.8%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 16 | 3 | 22 | 101 | 24 | 9 | 6 | 19% | 1.4 | 16.2% | 11.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.36 | 6.73 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 16 | 3 | 22 | 101 | 24 | 9 | 6 | 19% | 1.4 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 14.9% | 5.9% | 7.36 | 5.69 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 11 | 10 | 48 | 212 | 49 | 25 | 3 | 91% | 4.4 | 15.7% | 14.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 4.31 | 4.38 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 11 | 10 | 48 | 212 | 49 | 25 | 3 | 91% | 4.4 | 23.1% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 1.4% | 4.31 | 3.43 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 8 | 5 | 16 | 72 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 62% | 2.0 | 12.3% | 13.9% | -1.6% | 3.7% | 6.19 | 5.83 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 8 | 5 | 16 | 72 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 62% | 2.0 | 18.1% | 11.1% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 6.19 | 4.60 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 9 | 82 | 379 | 83 | 45 | 10 | 43% | 3.9 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 0.8% | 3.4% | 6.12 | 5.51 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 9 | 82 | 379 | 83 | 45 | 10 | 43% | 3.9 | 21.9% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 6.12 | 4.30 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 7 | 63 | 299 | 48 | 39 | 3 | 30% | 2.7 | 11.5% | 15.2% | -3.8% | 1.9% | 5.60 | 5.13 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 7 | 63 | 299 | 48 | 39 | 3 | 30% | 2.7 | 16.1% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 5.60 | 4.06 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 18 | 0 | 26 | 121 | 32 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.9% | 21.3% | -0.4% | 1.6% | 4.91 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | COL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 28 | 46 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.7% | 17.5% | -6.8% | 2.9% | 6.40 | 6.40 | -1.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.7% | 17.5% | -6.8% | 2.9% | 6.40 | 6.40 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | COL | — | — | 87 | 381 | 60 | 68 | 10 | — | — | 15.7% | 17.7% | -2.0% | 2.5% | 5.96 | 5.96 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | COL | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 36 | 42 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.6% | 15.8% | -2.2% | 2.9% | 6.03 | 5.93 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | COL | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 42 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 14.8% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 5.75 | 5.64 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | COL | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 44 | 39 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 14.4% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 5.59 | 5.52 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | COL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 16 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.6% | 15.8% | -2.2% | 2.9% | 6.03 | 5.93 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | COL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 27 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.4% | 14.8% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 5.75 | 5.64 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | COL | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 35 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 14.4% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 5.59 | 5.52 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 114 | 0 | 120 | 506 | 78 | 75 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.4% | 14.9% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 5.75 | 5.27 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 130 | 125 | 25 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 14.9% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 5.75 | 5.27 | +0.3 | ||
| Career | — | 97 | 34 | 257 | 1184 | 176 | 179 | 33 | 35% | 2.6 | 14.9% | 15.1% | -0.2% | 2.8% | 5.65 | 5.27 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 76 | 26 | 200 | 923 | 137 | 139 | 26 | 35% | 2.6 | 14.9% | 15.1% | -0.2% | 2.8% | 5.65 | 5.27 | +0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ismael Luciano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.40 | 10.7% | 17.5% | 2.9% | — | 5.70 | 15.1% | 0.1% | 191 | -0.70 | — | — | — |
| Ted Stuka R 2027 · 5.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.78 | 12.4% | 23.4% | 1.4% | .262 | 6.34 | 15.9% | -13.1% | 41 | +0.56 | 5.51 | 105 | 85 |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 82 |
| Jon Keller R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.41 | 15.3% | 20.9% | 1.7% | .265 | 3.84 | 8.9% | -2.9% | 15 | -1.57 | 3.62 | 156 | 81 |
| Carlos Polanco R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.37 | 13.9% | 20.0% | 1.7% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 276 | 80 |
| Tom Reisinger R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.25 | 12.1% | 14.6% | 2.4% | .381 | 6.70 | 10.3% | -5.6% | 47 | +1.45 | 5.25 | 110 | 80 |
| Blake Quinn R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.32 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 3.1% | .328 | 4.28 | 17.1% | 3.3% | 48 | -1.04 | 4.28 | 122 | 79 |
| Dylan Rheault R 2026 · 5.57 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.57 | 6.5% | 14.9% | 2.1% | .288 | 4.14 | 14.1% | 4.8% | 96 | -1.43 | 3.96 | 198 | 78 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 6.06 FIP | 23 | SW | 6.06 | 12.6% | 24.0% | 1.8% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 144 | 77 |
| Cooper Adams R 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 76 |
| Taylor Hawkins R 2026 · 6.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.08 | 7.4% | 19.5% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.37 | 112 | 76 |
| Kendy Richard R 2024 · 5.98 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.98 | 12.0% | 16.0% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 141 | 76 |
| Drew Conover R 2026 · 6.30 FIP | 23 | SW | 6.30 | 15.6% | 29.8% | 1.4% | .272 | 5.34 | 11.7% | -3.6% | 96 | -0.96 | 4.52 | 135 | 76 |
| Miguel Mora R 2024 · 7.01 FIP | 21 | SU | 7.01 | 10.5% | 26.8% | 2.6% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 151 | 76 |
| Tom Robson R 2026 · 5.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.76 | 10.9% | 16.3% | 2.8% | .355 | 3.17 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 35 | -2.59 | 3.17 | 132 | 75 |
| Zach Willeman R 2026 · 5.55 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.55 | 10.8% | 15.0% | 2.6% | .296 | 5.10 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 108 | -0.45 | 4.15 | 264 | 75 |
| Chance Huff R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.78 | 11.8% | 11.4% | 4.1% | .312 | 5.14 | 15.7% | -0.0% | 151 | -0.64 | 4.35 | 235 | 74 |
| Ruben Castillo R 2026 · 5.64 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.64 | 15.0% | 15.5% | 3.4% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.33 | 140 | 74 |
| Nicholas Regalado R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.62 | 15.0% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 132 | 74 |
| Blake Bivens R 2026 · 5.84 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.84 | 10.5% | 16.5% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 336 | 74 |
| Tyler Brashears R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 63 | 14.1% | 15.6% | 1.13 | 5.94 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |