Victor Juarez

P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 173 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	A+COL	22	21	111	4.30	4.21	24.0%	7.2%	—	K 18.5% · BB 8.3% · FIP 5.14
2025	22	MIX2 levels	37	1	82	3.53	3.53	21.8%	6.1%	—	K 18.2% · BB 6.5% · FIP 3.95
2026	23	MIX2 levels	39	1	58	7.91	4.07	18.2%	9.6%	—	K 15.1% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.31
2027PROJ	24	MLBCOL	64	0	67	4.79	4.79	15.4%	8.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBCOL	31	0	33	4.69	4.65	17.1%	8.0%	-0.0
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBCOL	48	0	50	4.62	4.58	17.9%	8.1%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control60Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsDakota Hawkins (age 24) · Yaisel Sierra (age 25) · Shohei Tomioka (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%15.4%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%7.4%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	10	8	37	142	47	7	2	80%	3.7	22.5%	6.2%	16.3%	1.9%	2.21	3.03	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	10	8	37	142	47	7	2	80%	3.7	33.1%	4.9%	28.2%	1.4%	2.21	1.82	—
2022	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	21	21	103	434	100	33	15	100%	4.9	17.1%	9.0%	8.1%	4.7%	4.98	5.40	—
2022	19	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	21	21	103	434	100	33	15	100%	4.9	23.0%	7.6%	15.4%	3.5%	4.98	4.01	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	20	20	92	417	94	35	16	100%	4.6	17.4%	9.7%	7.7%	4.6%	6.38	5.37	—
2023	20	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	20	20	92	417	94	35	16	100%	4.6	22.5%	8.4%	14.1%	3.8%	6.38	4.46	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	22	21	111	470	113	34	19	95%	5.0	18.5%	8.3%	10.2%	4.7%	4.30	5.14	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	22	21	111	470	113	34	19	95%	5.0	18.5%	8.3%	10.2%	4.7%	4.30	5.14	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	22	21	111	470	113	34	19	95%	5.0	24.0%	7.2%	16.8%	4.0%	4.30	4.21	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	82	326	71	20	9	3%	2.2	18.2%	6.5%	11.6%	2.8%	3.53	3.95	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	82	326	71	20	9	3%	2.2	18.2%	6.5%	11.6%	2.8%	3.53	3.95	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	1	82	326	71	20	9	3%	2.2	21.8%	6.1%	15.6%	2.8%	3.53	3.53	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	58	291	53	28	6	3%	1.5	15.1%	9.5%	5.6%	2.3%	7.91	4.31	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	58	291	53	28	6	3%	1.5	15.1%	9.5%	5.6%	2.3%	7.91	4.31	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	1	58	291	53	28	6	3%	1.5	18.2%	9.6%	8.6%	2.1%	7.91	4.07	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	COL	64	0	67	283	44	23	8	0%	1.0	15.4%	8.0%	7.4%	2.9%	4.79	4.79	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	71	0	74	314	54	25	9	0%	1.0	17.1%	8.0%	9.1%	2.9%	4.69	4.65	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	71	0	74	314	56	25	9	0%	1.0	17.9%	8.1%	9.9%	2.9%	4.62	4.58	-0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	COL	70	0	73	309	56	25	9	0%	1.0	18.2%	8.2%	10.0%	3.0%	4.61	4.61	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	COL	68	0	71	300	55	25	9	0%	1.0	18.2%	8.4%	9.9%	3.1%	4.65	4.69	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	COL	65	0	68	287	52	25	9	0%	1.0	18.0%	8.6%	9.4%	3.2%	4.75	4.82	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	COL	61	0	64	269	47	24	9	0%	1.0	17.6%	8.9%	8.7%	3.4%	4.90	4.99	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	31	0	33	139	24	11	4	0%	1.1	17.1%	8.0%	9.1%	2.9%	4.69	4.65	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	48	0	50	211	38	17	6	0%	1.0	17.9%	8.1%	9.9%	2.9%	4.62	4.58	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	COL	54	0	57	241	44	20	7	0%	1.1	18.2%	8.2%	10.0%	3.0%	4.61	4.61	-0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	COL	57	0	60	253	46	21	8	0%	1.1	18.2%	8.4%	9.9%	3.1%	4.65	4.69	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	COL	57	0	60	253	46	22	8	0%	1.1	18.0%	8.6%	9.4%	3.2%	4.75	4.82	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	COL	54	0	57	241	42	21	8	0%	1.1	17.6%	8.9%	8.7%	3.4%	4.90	4.99	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		301	0	316	1335	239	112	41	0%	1.1	17.9%	8.4%	9.5%	3.1%	4.71	4.35	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	71	26	0%	1.1	17.9%	8.4%	9.5%	3.1%	4.71	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		149	72	482	2080	368	176	80	48%	3.2	17.7%	8.5%	9.3%	3.9%	4.99	4.80	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	30	200	863	153	73	33	48%	3.2	17.7%	8.5%	9.3%	3.9%	4.99	4.80	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Juarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	15.4%	8.0%	2.9%	—	4.61	17.7%	9.7%	222	-0.18	—	—	—
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	91
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	89
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	88
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	86
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	85
Sergio Mitre R 2005 · 5.18 FIP	24	SW	5.18	13.8%	7.8%	4.1%	.256	3.84	13.0%	6.6%	190	-1.34	3.55	602	84
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	84
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	84
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	84
Josh DeGraaf R 2017 · 3.90 FIP	24	SW	3.90	15.5%	7.7%	2.1%	.295	4.52	17.2%	10.1%	121	+0.62	3.90	320	84
Chad Bettis R 2013 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP-	4.38	14.4%	8.7%	2.6%	.318	3.81	17.4%	10.4%	365	-0.57	3.67	672	83
Thomas Ponticelli R 2021 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	17.2%	9.7%	3.0%	.264	5.25	15.1%	3.8%	163	+0.75	2.59	367	83
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	83
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	83
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	82
Sun-Woo Kim R 2002 · 3.97 FIP	24	SW	3.97	13.9%	5.8%	2.4%	.290	4.48	14.2%	7.5%	232	+0.51	3.25	337	82
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	82
Steven Bruce R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	25	SW	3.69	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.8%	94	+0.25	3.69	148	82
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	82
Jeff Manship R 2009 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	14.4%	10.3%	2.7%	.330	4.23	14.9%	9.5%	51	-0.46	2.83	250	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	70	17.5%	8.3%	1.18	4.71
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Jerry Spradlin ('00)	1.9	74	18.6%	7.8%	0.97	4.75
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Dave Tomlin ('72-'86, -2 WAR*)	2.6	64	18.0%*	8.6%*	0.87*	4.57*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*