Samuel Mejia

P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 160 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	MIX2 levels	21	0	34	2.62	2.14	34.8%	5.8%	—	K 23.4% · BB 5.4% · FIP 2.71
2024	22	ATB	33	0	53	5.98	3.65	26.0%	8.5%	—	K 19.2% · BB 10.0% · FIP 5.33
2025	23	MIX2 levels	24	5	72	4.35	3.22	27.2%	10.4%	—	K 20.4% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.07
2027PROJ	25	MLBATL	67	0	70	4.93	4.93	20.2%	12.0%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBATL	29	0	30	4.85	4.84	20.7%	11.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBATL	41	0	43	4.83	4.84	20.9%	11.6%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control40Command45

CompsEmmanuel Chapman (age 25) · Jarret Whorff (age 25) · Wil Jensen (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%20.2%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	12	6	51	216	44	15	2	50%	4.3	13.9%	8.7%	5.2%	1.4%	2.63	3.81	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 1	12	6	51	216	44	15	2	50%	4.3	20.4%	6.9%	13.4%	0.9%	2.63	2.77	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	14	0	20	83	22	5	1	0%	1.4	18.0%	7.5%	10.5%	1.9%	2.25	3.56	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	14	0	20	83	22	5	1	0%	1.4	26.5%	6.0%	20.5%	1.2%	2.25	2.30	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	34	138	48	8	3	0%	1.6	23.4%	5.4%	18.0%	1.7%	2.62	2.71	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	34	138	48	8	3	0%	1.6	34.8%	5.8%	29.0%	2.2%	2.62	2.14	—
2024	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	33	0	53	235	61	20	7	0%	1.6	19.2%	10.0%	9.2%	4.7%	5.98	5.33	—
2024	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	33	0	53	235	61	20	7	0%	1.6	19.2%	10.0%	9.2%	4.7%	5.98	5.33	—
2024	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	33	0	53	235	61	20	7	0%	1.6	26.0%	8.5%	17.4%	3.0%	5.98	3.65	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	5	72	298	81	31	6	21%	3.0	20.4%	11.8%	8.6%	2.2%	4.35	4.07	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	5	72	298	81	31	6	21%	3.0	20.4%	11.8%	8.6%	2.2%	4.35	4.07	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	5	72	298	81	31	6	21%	3.0	27.2%	10.4%	16.8%	2.0%	4.35	3.22	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ATL	67	0	70	296	60	35	9	0%	1.0	20.2%	12.0%	8.2%	3.0%	4.93	4.93	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ATL	67	0	70	296	61	35	9	0%	1.0	20.7%	11.7%	9.0%	3.0%	4.85	4.84	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	ATL	66	0	69	291	61	34	9	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	3.0%	4.83	4.84	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	ATL	64	0	67	282	59	33	9	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	3.1%	4.86	4.90	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	ATL	61	0	64	270	56	32	9	0%	1.0	20.7%	11.8%	9.0%	3.3%	4.95	5.02	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	ATL	29	0	30	127	26	15	4	0%	1.0	20.7%	11.7%	9.0%	3.0%	4.85	4.84	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	ATL	41	0	43	182	38	21	6	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	3.0%	4.83	4.84	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	ATL	48	0	50	211	44	25	7	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	3.1%	4.86	4.90	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	ATL	50	0	52	220	46	26	7	0%	1.0	20.7%	11.8%	9.0%	3.3%	4.95	5.02	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		167	0	175	741	154	86	23	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.7%	9.2%	3.1%	4.88	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	98	26	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.7%	9.2%	3.1%	4.88	4.53	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		104	11	231	970	183	91	24	11%	2.2	18.9%	9.4%	9.5%	2.5%	3.90	4.08	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	10	200	841	159	79	21	11%	2.2	18.9%	9.4%	9.5%	2.5%	3.90	4.08	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Mejia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	20.2%	12.0%	3.0%	—	4.86	20.9%	9.2%	206	-0.07	—	—	—
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	89
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	89
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	87
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	87
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	87
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	86
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	86
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	85
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	85
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	85
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.49	14.0%	6.3%	162	+0.26	3.81	291	85
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	85
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	85
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	85
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	84
Adam Warren R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	19.3%	8.5%	2.8%	.306	3.43	20.5%	13.1%	275	-0.66	2.65	548	84
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	84
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	83
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	83
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	20.7%	11.7%	1.19	4.88
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*