Jaden Woods

P Charlotte Knights

Age 25 LHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	40	1	60	3.75	3.12	27.8%	10.5%	—	K 22.1% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.08
2025	23	AAPIT	44	0	62	5.81	3.55	22.7%	11.0%	—	K 18.4% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.32
2026	24	MIX2 levels	46	1	62	3.94	2.97	35.0%	10.5%	—	K 29.4% · BB 10.4% · FIP 3.60
2027PROJ	25	MLBCWS	7	0	7	4.43	4.43	25.5%	11.6%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	26	MLBCWS	21	0	22	4.41	4.40	25.5%	11.3%	0.0
2029PROJ53% MLB	27	MLBCWS	27	0	28	4.42	4.43	25.4%	11.2%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 90%

CompsPeyton Alford (age 25) · Andrew Walling (age 24) · Robby Ahlstrom (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 117

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%25.5%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%14.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	10	0	14	54	21	3	0	0%	1.4	28.8%	6.6%	22.2%	0.0%	3.14	1.50	—
2023	21	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	10	0	14	54	21	3	0	0%	1.4	38.9%	5.6%	33.3%	0.0%	3.14	0.80	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	60	266	74	28	5	2%	1.5	22.1%	11.8%	10.3%	2.5%	3.75	4.08	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	60	266	74	28	5	2%	1.5	22.1%	11.8%	10.3%	2.5%	3.75	4.08	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	1	60	266	74	28	5	2%	1.5	27.8%	10.5%	17.3%	1.9%	3.75	3.12	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	44	0	62	299	68	33	5	0%	1.4	18.4%	12.1%	6.3%	2.3%	5.81	4.32	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	44	0	62	299	68	33	5	0%	1.4	18.4%	12.1%	6.3%	2.3%	5.81	4.32	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	44	0	62	299	68	33	5	0%	1.4	22.7%	11.0%	11.7%	1.7%	5.81	3.55	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	62	257	90	27	7	2%	1.3	29.4%	10.4%	19.0%	3.0%	3.94	3.60	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	62	257	90	27	7	2%	1.3	29.4%	10.4%	19.0%	3.0%	3.94	3.60	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	62	257	90	27	7	2%	1.3	35.0%	10.5%	24.5%	2.7%	3.94	2.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CWS	7	0	7	30	8	3	1	0%	1.0	25.5%	11.6%	14.0%	3.0%	4.43	4.43	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	56	0	58	247	63	28	7	0%	1.0	25.5%	11.3%	14.2%	3.0%	4.41	4.40	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	50	0	53	223	56	25	7	0%	1.1	25.4%	11.2%	14.1%	3.0%	4.42	4.43	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	47	0	49	206	52	23	6	0%	1.0	25.1%	11.3%	13.9%	3.1%	4.47	4.51	+0.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	CWS	43	0	45	190	47	22	6	0%	1.0	24.9%	11.4%	13.4%	3.3%	4.57	4.63	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	21	0	22	93	24	10	3	0%	1.0	25.5%	11.3%	14.2%	3.0%	4.41	4.40	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	27	0	28	118	30	13	4	0%	1.0	25.4%	11.2%	14.1%	3.0%	4.42	4.43	+0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	30	0	31	131	33	15	4	0%	1.0	25.1%	11.3%	13.9%	3.1%	4.47	4.51	+0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	CWS	30	0	32	135	34	15	4	0%	1.1	24.9%	11.4%	13.4%	3.3%	4.57	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		108	0	113	477	120	54	15	0%	1.0	25.2%	11.3%	13.9%	3.1%	4.47	4.12	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	212	96	27	0%	1.1	25.2%	11.3%	13.9%	3.1%	4.47	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		140	2	198	876	205	98	21	1%	1.4	23.4%	11.2%	12.2%	2.4%	4.41	3.86	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	2	200	885	207	99	21	1%	1.4	23.4%	11.2%	12.2%	2.4%	4.41	3.86	+0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 36 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.12 (+0.49)K% 34.0% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.99%	—	×0.860	29.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.80%	—	×0.900	8.82%
HR / BF /BF	3.92%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.31%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAltoona Curve · 26 IPFIP 2.00 → 2.84 (+0.84)K% 36.5% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.54%	—	×0.810	29.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×1.100	12.69%
HR / BF /BF	0.96%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.15%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.00 → 2.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAltoona Curve · 62 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.32 (+0.82)K% 22.7% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.74%	—	×0.810	18.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.04%	—	×1.100	12.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷0.891	×1.200	2.25%

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAltoona Curve · 35 IPFIP 3.21 → 4.21 (+1.01)K% 27.0% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.04%	—	×0.810	21.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.69%	—	×1.100	11.76%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷0.844	×1.200	2.68%

Result: FIP 3.21 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 25 IPFIP 2.98 → 3.87 (+0.89)K% 29.0% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.97%	—	×0.770	22.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.28%	—	×1.150	11.82%
HR / BF /BF	1.87%	÷1.106	×1.250	2.11%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 2.98 → 3.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ABradenton Marauders · 14 IPFIP 0.52 → 1.50 (+0.98)K% 38.9% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.89%	—	×0.740	28.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.180	6.56%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.971	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 0.52 → 1.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jaden Woods (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.44	25.3%	14.1%	160	+0.01	—	—	—
Peyton Alford L 2023 · 3.69 FIP	25	SU	3.69	28.0%	12.4%	2.5%	.303	4.09	24.5%	13.4%	175	+0.40	3.48	291	85
Andrew Walling L 2024 · 4.05 FIP	24	SU	4.05	23.4%	13.2%	2.3%	.281	3.73	20.8%	7.5%	52	-0.32	3.14	161	85
Robby Ahlstrom L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	21.9%	11.6%	2.1%	.294	4.02	20.7%	11.1%	120	+0.13	3.79	332	84
Aaron Fultz L 2000 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.7%	9.4%	2.7%	.294	3.88	19.4%	12.5%	180	-0.12	3.46	480	84
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	84
Jared Tobey L 2021 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	23.6%	11.8%	2.8%	.341	8.03	20.1%	1.1%	25	+3.92	3.99	158	83
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.59	24.3%	15.3%	149	+0.91	3.68	206	83
Thomas Burrows L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	22.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.276	3.93	26.5%	12.9%	82	-0.06	2.67	271	82
Greg Nappo L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	22.7%	7.5%	2.2%	.267	5.25	16.5%	5.9%	79	+1.88	3.37	144	82
B.J. Ryan L 2001 · 3.96 FIP	25	SU	3.96	22.8%	11.0%	2.5%	.272	2.67	29.1%	19.3%	195	-1.29	1.77	532	82
Jerry Vasto L 2017 · 4.16 FIP	25	SU	4.16	22.2%	10.2%	3.0%	.382	3.52	24.0%	12.5%	38	-0.64	2.89	206	82
Jackson Lancaster L 2024 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	24.0%	11.1%	3.6%	.355	5.36	18.3%	4.9%	93	+0.88	4.15	142	82
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	81
Locke St. John L 2018 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	24.7%	10.1%	2.8%	.281	3.51	25.9%	15.4%	109	-0.33	3.07	389	81
Kevin Siegrist L 2014 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	26.4%	11.4%	3.8%	.329	3.61	27.2%	16.8%	176	-0.81	2.13	246	81
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	81
Dario Alvarez L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	26	SU	3.47	26.0%	13.1%	1.7%	.260	3.64	27.7%	17.1%	129	+0.17	3.47	160	80
Bailey Horn L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	25	SU	3.91	21.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.322	4.56	22.4%	11.6%	110	+0.65	3.90	265	80
Elvis Araujo L 2016 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	21.0%	9.8%	2.8%	.308	5.18	22.9%	11.1%	38	+1.09	2.46	120	80
Michael Kirkman L 2012 · 4.06 FIP	25	SU	4.06	25.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.207	3.82	21.0%	6.4%	54	-0.24	2.79	171	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	55	25.3%	11.4%	1.19	4.45
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Hansel Robles ('22)	2.1	61	25.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.11
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*