Mason Miller — OGILVIE

Mason Miller P Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 24 LHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%20.9%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	29	145	29	18	4	0%	2.1	12.4%	15.9%	-3.5%	1.3%	7.76	4.81	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	29	145	29	18	4	0%	2.1	12.4%	15.9%	-3.5%	1.3%	7.76	4.81	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	29	145	29	18	4	0%	2.1	20.0%	12.4%	7.6%	2.8%	7.76	4.76	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	11	84	355	100	32	3	34%	2.6	21.2%	10.5%	10.7%	1.1%	2.35	3.22	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	11	84	355	100	32	3	34%	2.6	21.2%	10.5%	10.7%	1.1%	2.35	3.22	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	11	84	355	100	32	3	34%	2.6	28.2%	9.0%	19.2%	0.8%	2.35	2.33	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	26	5	64	290	55	41	10	19%	2.4	14.6%	16.3%	-1.7%	4.3%	5.37	6.29	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	26	5	64	290	55	41	10	19%	2.4	14.6%	16.3%	-1.7%	4.3%	5.37	6.29	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	KC	26	5	64	290	55	41	10	19%	2.5	19.0%	14.1%	4.8%	3.4%	5.37	5.18	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	KC	5	0	6	24	5	3	1	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.6%	10.3%	2.6%	4.49	4.49	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	69	314	60	44	11	—	—	19.1%	13.9%	5.2%	3.4%	5.30	6.14	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	KC	73	0	77	324	70	32	9	0%	1.1	21.6%	9.8%	11.7%	2.6%	4.40	4.35	+0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	73	0	77	324	71	32	9	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.7%	12.2%	2.7%	4.36	4.33	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	72	0	76	319	70	31	9	0%	1.0	22.0%	9.8%	12.2%	2.7%	4.36	4.37	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	KC	70	0	73	309	68	31	9	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.9%	11.9%	2.8%	4.41	4.45	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	KC	67	0	70	296	64	30	9	0%	1.0	21.6%	10.2%	11.5%	3.0%	4.51	4.58	-0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	KC	63	0	66	278	59	29	9	0%	1.0	21.3%	10.5%	10.8%	3.2%	4.66	4.76	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	KC	31	0	33	139	30	14	4	0%	1.1	21.6%	9.8%	11.7%	2.6%	4.40	4.35	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	49	0	51	215	47	21	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.7%	12.2%	2.7%	4.36	4.33	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	55	0	58	245	54	24	7	0%	1.1	22.0%	9.8%	12.2%	2.7%	4.36	4.37	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	KC	59	0	62	262	57	26	7	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.9%	11.9%	2.8%	4.41	4.45	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	KC	58	0	61	258	56	26	8	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.2%	11.5%	3.0%	4.51	4.58	-0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	KC	56	0	59	249	53	26	8	0%	1.1	21.3%	10.5%	10.8%	3.2%	4.66	4.76	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		309	0	325	1371	298	137	39	0%	1.1	21.7%	10.0%	11.7%	2.9%	4.46	4.11	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	84	24	0%	1.1	21.7%	10.0%	11.7%	2.9%	4.46	4.11	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		72	16	177	790	136	107	18	22%	2.5	17.2%	13.6%	3.6%	2.3%	4.32	4.64	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	18	200	893	153	121	21	22%	2.5	17.2%	13.6%	3.6%	2.3%	4.32	4.64	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	20.9%	10.6%	2.6%	—	4.35	21.8%	12.0%	229	-0.14	—	—	—
R.C. Orlan L 2015 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	21.0%	10.9%	2.2%	.326	4.62	17.2%	5.0%	119	+0.69	1.71	206	83
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	83
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	81
Matt Walker L 2022 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	17.7%	12.8%	2.4%	.338	4.73	12.7%	2.7%	41	+0.19	4.21	156	81
Matt Whitehouse L 2016 · 3.37 FIP	25	SU	3.37	19.0%	9.9%	1.1%	.304	4.46	16.9%	7.4%	276	+1.09	3.37	353	81
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	81
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	80
Zack Thompson L 2022 · 3.80 FIP	24	SW	3.80	23.6%	9.9%	2.6%	.243	4.60	22.9%	10.4%	208	+0.80	2.03	402	80
Christian Jones L 2015 · 3.32 FIP	24	SU	3.32	18.5%	7.4%	1.6%	.319	4.00	15.0%	3.7%	89	+0.68	3.32	161	80
Brian Flynn L 2016 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	21.3%	11.1%	2.0%	.258	4.39	16.6%	8.2%	198	+0.59	3.80	277	80
Brad Hand L 2015 · 3.95 FIP	25	SW	3.95	16.4%	7.6%	2.3%	.326	2.71	32.9%	25.0%	241	-1.24	0.84	577	80
Daniel Stumpf L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	20.8%	11.5%	2.8%	.268	3.54	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.77	1.84	238	80
Michael Johnson L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SU	3.92	20.6%	9.4%	2.5%	.260	4.70	17.6%	7.7%	185	+0.78	3.92	256	78
Michael Theofanopoulos L 2017 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	21.0%	9.8%	1.9%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	201	78
Trey Cumbie L 2019 · 3.44 FIP	23	SU	3.44	22.5%	12.6%	1.2%	.318	4.78	24.4%	8.7%	91	+1.34	3.44	152	78
Enny Romero L 2015 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	20.7%	9.0%	1.8%	.354	4.22	24.8%	14.6%	111	+0.70	3.51	188	77
Shane McCain L 2016 · 4.48 FIP	24	SU	4.48	18.3%	8.7%	3.3%	.261	5.14	14.2%	10.7%	51	+0.66	4.34	201	77
Mac Lardner L 2022 · 5.08 FIP	24	SW	5.08	17.4%	9.4%	4.1%	.318	3.66	17.5%	8.1%	62	-1.42	3.66	186	77
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	77
Daniel McGrath L 2018 · 3.62 FIP	24	SW	3.62	16.7%	10.6%	1.1%	.318	3.52	20.8%	9.8%	112	-0.10	3.52	474	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	72	21.6%	10.1%	1.09	4.45
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59