Sam Aldegheri — OGILVIE

Sam Aldegheri P Salt Lake Bees

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.1 · 2028 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION126 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA4.64

FIP4.83

K%16.5%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%4.4%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL2040

CMD4045

K†4045

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1692.1

Whiff%

p1520.4%

p1014.6%

xwOBA vs

p140.355

CH (31%)

CT (5%)

CU (8%)

FB (47%)

SL-1.4 (9%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$3M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$6M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-4	$8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	3	21	92	32	10	0	38%	2.6	24.7%	15.3%	9.4%	0.0%	2.57	2.95	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	3	21	92	32	10	0	38%	2.6	34.8%	10.9%	23.9%	0.0%	2.57	1.48	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	8	4	12	54	17	7	0	50%	1.5	21.4%	16.2%	5.2%	0.0%	1.46	3.34	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	8	4	12	54	17	7	0	50%	1.5	31.5%	13.0%	18.5%	0.0%	1.46	2.05	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	84	363	99	35	9	95%	4.2	20.3%	11.3%	9.0%	3.3%	4.20	4.61	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	84	363	99	35	9	95%	4.2	20.3%	11.3%	9.0%	3.3%	4.20	4.61	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	84	363	99	35	9	95%	4.2	27.3%	9.6%	17.6%	2.5%	4.20	3.39	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	108	467	144	51	5	100%	4.9	24.6%	12.1%	12.5%	1.3%	3.74	3.26	+2.2
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	108	467	144	51	5	100%	4.9	24.6%	12.1%	12.5%	1.3%	3.74	3.26	+2.2
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	108	467	144	51	5	100%	4.9	30.8%	10.9%	19.9%	1.1%	3.74	2.45	+3.4
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	26	147	651	125	70	16	93%	5.2	16.1%	11.8%	4.4%	2.7%	4.16	4.71	+0.3
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	26	147	651	125	70	16	93%	5.2	16.1%	11.8%	4.4%	2.7%	4.16	4.71	+0.3
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	26	147	651	125	70	16	93%	5.2	19.2%	10.8%	8.4%	2.5%	4.16	4.24	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			16	11	60	291	44	37	10	69%	3.8	15.1%	12.7%	2.4%	3.4%	5.67	5.64	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	28	25	126	570	101	66	20	89%	4.5	15.4%	10.7%	4.6%	3.8%	6.64	5.22	—
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	28	25	126	570	101	66	20	89%	4.5	15.4%	10.7%	4.6%	3.8%	6.64	5.22	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	LAA	19	19	92	419	79	49	15	100%	4.9	18.9%	11.7%	7.2%	3.6%	7.21	4.95	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	LAA	9	6	34	151	22	17	5	67%	3.7	14.6%	11.3%	3.3%	3.3%	5.08	5.11	-0.1
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	LAA	9	6	34	151	22	17	5	67%	3.7	14.6%	11.3%	3.3%	3.3%	5.08	5.11	-0.1
ROS	24	MLB MLE	LAA	2	2	13	56	9	7	2	100%	6.6	16.5%	12.2%	4.4%	2.9%	4.64	4.83	+0.0
ROS	24	MLB CTX	LAA	2	2	13	55	9	7	2	100%	6.5	16.5%	12.2%	4.4%	2.9%	4.67	4.86	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	139	626	110	73	22	—	—	17.6%	11.6%	6.0%	3.5%	6.45	5.18	-0.4
FULL	24	MLB A+C	LAA	—	—	47	198	110	73	22	—	—	55.7%	36.8%	18.9%	10.9%	19.17	9.06	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	LAA	30	30	175	739	135	83	22	100%	5.8	18.3%	11.2%	7.0%	2.9%	4.97	4.97	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAA	29	29	175	739	143	81	22	100%	6.0	19.4%	10.9%	8.5%	2.9%	4.87	4.84	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAA	29	29	172	728	142	79	22	100%	5.9	19.5%	10.8%	8.7%	3.0%	4.84	4.84	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAA	29	29	172	728	142	79	22	100%	5.9	19.4%	10.9%	8.5%	3.1%	4.88	4.91	-0.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAA	27	27	165	695	131	77	22	100%	6.1	18.9%	11.1%	7.7%	3.2%	5.00	5.07	-0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAA	26	26	155	653	119	75	22	100%	5.9	18.2%	11.4%	6.7%	3.4%	5.17	5.28	-0.7
2027	25	MLB CTX	LAA	28	28	166	701	128	79	21	100%	5.9	18.3%	11.2%	7.0%	3.0%	5.00	5.00	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAA	28	28	166	701	136	77	21	100%	5.9	19.4%	10.9%	8.5%	3.0%	4.90	4.87	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAA	27	27	164	692	135	75	21	100%	6.1	19.5%	10.8%	8.7%	3.0%	4.87	4.87	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAA	27	27	164	692	135	76	22	100%	6.1	19.4%	10.9%	8.5%	3.1%	4.91	4.94	-0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAA	26	26	156	659	124	73	22	100%	6.0	18.9%	11.1%	7.7%	3.3%	5.04	5.11	-0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAA	24	24	147	621	113	71	22	100%	6.1	18.2%	11.4%	6.7%	3.5%	5.21	5.32	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		180	175	1037	4415	824	494	140	97%	5.8	18.7%	11.2%	7.5%	3.2%	5.02	4.68	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	851	159	95	27	97%	5.8	18.7%	11.2%	7.5%	3.2%	5.02	4.68	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		114	99	498	2197	415	258	57	87%	4.4	18.9%	11.8%	7.2%	2.6%	4.57	4.41	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	40	200	882	167	104	23	87%	4.4	18.9%	11.8%	7.2%	2.6%	4.57	4.41	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Aldegheri (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	17.4%	12.8%	2.8%	—	4.88	19.1%	8.1%	522	-0.30	—	—	—
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	78
Zach Penrod L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	17.3%	14.2%	1.5%	.263	4.46	21.1%	6.8%	141	+0.19	3.41	174	75
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	75
Josh Maciejewski L 2019 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP	5.29	12.9%	12.1%	3.2%	.225	4.49	21.0%	12.1%	136	-0.80	2.87	378	75
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	75
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	74
Jake Zokan L 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SP	4.89	12.5%	9.9%	2.9%	.292	1.79	24.2%	22.5%	37	-3.10	1.79	120	72
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	71
Grant Watson L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	16.4%	10.3%	3.0%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	180	71
TJ House L 2015 · 5.27 FIP	25	SP	5.27	11.1%	14.8%	2.2%	.322	4.37	14.2%	2.8%	245	-0.90	3.92	279	70
Justin Steele L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	24	SP	4.07	20.0%	12.9%	1.8%	.400	3.71	24.2%	14.1%	203	-0.36	2.74	785	70
David Peterson L 2020 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP	4.28	19.5%	11.7%	2.5%	.228	3.86	25.6%	15.3%	346	-0.42	2.81	1,061	70
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	69
Jordan Fowler L 2023 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	13.2%	7.9%	2.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	124	69
Jaime Arias L 2023 · 5.99 FIP	24	SP	5.99	17.5%	13.9%	4.8%	.333	5.34	14.9%	5.2%	54	-0.65	4.38	243	69
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	69
Marco Gonzales L 2015 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP	4.45	14.4%	7.7%	2.9%	.355	3.63	19.7%	14.2%	287	-0.82	3.09	1,108	68
Jake Eder L 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP	5.27	22.1%	15.5%	3.8%	.344	4.94	18.6%	9.0%	217	-0.33	2.73	335	68
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	68
Josh Hendrickson L 2022 · 5.04 FIP	24	SP	5.04	17.8%	10.9%	3.8%	.339	6.26	14.6%	4.3%	108	+1.22	3.80	365	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.8	167	18.7%	11.3%	1.18	4.96
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32