Jean Cabrera

P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 145 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#850ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	20	19	107	3.80	2.70	24.7%	7.4%	—	K 19.2% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.54
2025	23	AAPHI	26	26	137	3.81	3.63	22.2%	10.6%	—	K 18.0% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.29
2026	24	MIX2 levels	21	20	88	7.64	5.14	15.8%	10.4%	—	K 13.0% · BB 10.5% · FIP 5.46
2027PROJ	25	MLBPHI	3	3	16	5.14	5.14	15.3%	10.3%	0.0
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBPHI	10	10	59	5.10	5.05	17.4%	10.0%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBPHI	12	12	71	5.04	5.04	17.7%	9.9%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.2M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsBlayne Weller (age 25) · Carlos Pimentel (age 25) · Chase Solesky (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%15.3%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%5.0%

Proj IP157

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 157 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.1M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	13	13	53	196	61	10	1	100%	4.1	21.2%	6.4%	14.8%	0.8%	1.54	2.57	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	13	13	53	196	61	10	1	100%	4.1	31.1%	5.1%	26.0%	0.5%	1.54	1.60	—
2022	20	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	12	12	46	213	51	28	8	100%	3.9	17.7%	15.5%	2.2%	4.9%	5.24	6.25	—
2022	20	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	12	12	46	213	51	28	8	100%	3.9	23.9%	13.1%	10.8%	3.8%	5.24	4.96	—
2023	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	19	13	81	358	86	22	3	68%	4.3	17.8%	7.3%	10.5%	1.1%	4.32	3.12	—
2023	21	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	19	13	81	358	86	22	3	68%	4.3	24.0%	6.1%	17.9%	0.8%	4.32	2.28	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	107	446	110	33	6	95%	5.3	19.2%	8.4%	10.7%	1.8%	3.80	3.54	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	107	446	110	33	6	95%	5.3	19.2%	8.4%	10.7%	1.8%	3.80	3.54	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	107	446	110	33	6	95%	5.3	24.7%	7.4%	17.3%	1.3%	3.80	2.70	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	26	26	137	573	127	61	11	100%	5.3	18.0%	11.7%	6.2%	2.2%	3.81	4.29	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	26	26	137	573	127	61	11	100%	5.3	18.0%	11.7%	6.2%	2.2%	3.81	4.29	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	26	26	137	573	127	61	11	100%	5.3	22.2%	10.6%	11.5%	1.9%	3.81	3.63	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	88	424	67	44	14	95%	4.2	13.0%	10.5%	2.6%	3.9%	7.64	5.46	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	88	424	67	44	14	95%	4.2	13.0%	10.5%	2.6%	3.9%	7.64	5.46	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	88	424	67	44	14	95%	4.2	15.8%	10.4%	5.4%	3.3%	7.64	5.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	PHI	3	3	16	68	10	7	2	100%	5.3	15.3%	10.3%	5.0%	3.0%	5.14	5.14	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	PHI	20	20	123	519	90	52	16	100%	6.2	17.4%	10.0%	7.4%	3.0%	4.98	4.93	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	PHI	18	18	108	456	81	45	14	100%	6.0	17.7%	9.9%	7.8%	3.1%	4.92	4.92	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	PHI	17	17	100	421	75	42	13	100%	5.9	17.8%	9.9%	7.9%	3.2%	4.93	4.97	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	92	388	69	39	13	100%	6.1	17.7%	10.1%	7.6%	3.3%	5.01	5.08	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	PHI	14	14	83	351	61	36	12	100%	5.9	17.3%	10.4%	6.9%	3.5%	5.16	5.26	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	59	249	43	25	8	100%	5.9	17.4%	10.0%	7.4%	3.2%	5.10	5.05	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	71	300	53	30	10	100%	5.9	17.7%	9.9%	7.8%	3.3%	5.04	5.04	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	PHI	13	13	77	325	58	32	11	100%	5.9	17.8%	9.9%	7.9%	3.4%	5.06	5.10	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	PHI	13	13	76	321	57	32	11	100%	5.8	17.7%	10.1%	7.6%	3.5%	5.14	5.21	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	72	304	53	32	11	100%	6.0	17.3%	10.4%	6.9%	3.8%	5.30	5.40	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	59	356	1502	265	151	52	100%	6.0	17.6%	10.1%	7.6%	3.5%	5.13	4.78	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	149	85	29	100%	6.0	17.6%	10.1%	7.6%	3.5%	5.13	4.78	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		111	103	512	2210	387	221	53	93%	4.6	17.5%	10.0%	7.5%	2.4%	4.44	4.21	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	40	200	863	151	86	21	93%	4.6	17.5%	10.0%	7.5%	2.4%	4.44	4.21	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAReading Fightin Phils · 60 IPFIP 4.93 → 5.72 (+0.79)K% 16.2% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.20%	—	×0.810	13.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.45%	—	×1.100	9.30%
HR / BF /BF	3.87%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.65%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.93 → 5.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 28 IPFIP 4.82 → 4.93 (+0.11)K% 15.0% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.00%	—	×0.860	12.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.14%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.36%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.82 → 4.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 137 IPFIP 3.63 → 4.29 (+0.66)K% 22.2% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.16%	—	×0.810	17.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.65%	—	×1.100	11.71%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷1.036	×1.200	2.22%

Result: FIP 3.63 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 77 IPFIP 2.71 → 3.79 (+1.08)K% 29.0% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.98%	—	×0.770	22.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.96%	—	×1.150	9.16%
HR / BF /BF	1.91%	÷0.926	×1.250	2.58%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.71 → 3.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAReading Fightin Phils · 30 IPFIP 2.65 → 2.96 (+0.31)K% 14.4% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.39%	—	×0.810	11.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.06%	—	×1.100	6.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.137	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.65 → 2.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AClearwater Threshers · 81 IPFIP 2.31 → 3.12 (+0.81)K% 24.0% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.02%	—	×0.740	17.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.15%	—	×1.180	7.25%
HR / BF /BF	0.84%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.09%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.31 → 3.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AClearwater Threshers · 46 IPFIP 4.80 → 6.25 (+1.44)K% 23.9% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.94%	—	×0.740	17.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.15%	—	×1.180	15.51%
HR / BF /BF	3.76%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.88%

Result: FIP 4.80 → 6.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Phillies White · 53 IPFIP 1.40 → 2.57 (+1.18)K% 31.1% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.12%	—	×0.680	21.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.10%	—	×1.250	6.38%
HR / BF /BF	0.51%	÷0.864	×1.400	0.83%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 1.40 → 2.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jean Cabrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.94	17.6%	7.7%	331	-0.20	—	—	—
Blayne Weller R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	16.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.326	5.65	17.6%	8.4%	103	+1.50	4.15	254	87
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	86
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	14.9%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.43	16.0%	8.7%	271	-0.34	4.07	567	84
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	84
James Needy R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	14.2%	8.6%	3.1%	.326	2.82	18.1%	8.2%	36	-1.90	2.82	167	82
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	82
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	82
Kyle Haynes R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SP	4.58	15.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	240	81
Thomas Farr R 2024 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP	5.38	12.6%	9.3%	4.0%	.295	5.61	10.6%	1.2%	83	+0.23	5.05	423	81
Trystan Vrieling R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	17.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.84	17.9%	5.3%	198	+0.82	4.02	345	81
Tyler Cravy R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP-	3.94	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.305	4.61	18.6%	7.8%	138	+0.67	3.94	276	81
Carter Spivey R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	24	SP	4.02	14.2%	10.6%	1.4%	.264	6.14	14.9%	3.5%	30	+2.12	4.02	155	81
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	81
Asher Wojciechowski R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	26	SP	4.30	15.7%	8.5%	2.6%	.323	4.61	20.4%	12.2%	287	+0.31	3.15	678	81
Claudio Vargas R 2003 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP	4.75	12.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.251	5.02	16.5%	8.5%	418	+0.27	3.66	765	80
Taylor Cole R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP	4.46	15.0%	8.8%	2.8%	.319	3.66	20.8%	12.1%	168	-0.80	3.49	433	80
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	80
Kade Morris R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	16.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.282	4.36	15.6%	8.3%	264	-0.36	3.89	395	80
David Hess R 2018 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP	4.69	17.5%	8.5%	3.6%	.267	5.99	20.8%	13.3%	187	+1.30	3.97	751	80
Jason Berken R 2009 · 4.92 FIP	25	SP	4.92	11.8%	7.5%	3.4%	.335	4.32	16.8%	9.6%	129	-0.60	3.37	468	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	110	17.1%	10.1%	1.22	5.03
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Roger Pavlik ('98)	3.7	124	16.2%	10.8%	1.03	4.58
Steve McCatty ('77-'85, 6 WAR*)	5.9	149	16.4%*	10.1%*	1.20*	4.49*
Greg Mathews ('86-'92, 4 WAR*)	2.6	103	14.7%*	9.2%*	1.09*	4.52*