Jean Cabrera
P
Reading Fightin Phils
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 145 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 105
ERA4.62
FIP4.62
K%18.2%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%7.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 13 | 13 | 53 | 196 | 61 | 10 | 1 | 100% | 4.1 | 21.2% | 6.4% | 14.8% | 1.0% | 1.54 | 2.66 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 13 | 13 | 53 | 196 | 61 | 10 | 1 | 100% | 4.1 | 31.1% | 5.1% | 26.0% | 0.5% | 1.54 | 1.60 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 12 | 12 | 46 | 213 | 51 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 3.9 | 17.7% | 15.5% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 5.24 | 6.25 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 12 | 12 | 46 | 213 | 51 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 3.9 | 23.9% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 3.8% | 5.24 | 4.96 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 19 | 13 | 81 | 358 | 86 | 22 | 3 | 68% | 4.3 | 17.8% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 1.1% | 4.32 | 3.12 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 19 | 13 | 81 | 358 | 86 | 22 | 3 | 68% | 4.3 | 24.0% | 6.1% | 17.9% | 0.8% | 4.32 | 2.28 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 107 | 446 | 110 | 33 | 6 | 95% | 5.3 | 19.2% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 2.0% | 3.80 | 3.63 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 107 | 446 | 110 | 33 | 6 | 95% | 5.3 | 24.7% | 7.4% | 17.3% | 1.3% | 3.80 | 2.70 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 26 | 26 | 137 | 573 | 127 | 61 | 11 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.0% | 11.7% | 6.2% | 2.1% | 3.81 | 4.25 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 26 | 26 | 137 | 573 | 127 | 61 | 11 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 1.9% | 3.81 | 3.63 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 16 | 15 | 64 | 314 | 48 | 34 | 10 | 94% | 4.0 | 12.9% | 11.6% | 1.3% | 3.7% | 8.81 | 5.53 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 50 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 18.2% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 4.62 | 4.62 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PHI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 4.64 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 129 | 588 | 98 | 62 | 17 | — | — | 16.6% | 10.6% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 6.71 | 5.07 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 18.2% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 4.64 | 4.27 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 27 | 27 | 159 | 671 | 132 | 64 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.49 | 4.42 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 26 | 26 | 159 | 671 | 138 | 63 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 2.6% | 4.40 | 4.34 | +2.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 26 | 26 | 157 | 661 | 137 | 62 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 2.6% | 4.38 | 4.37 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 25 | 25 | 152 | 641 | 132 | 61 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.6% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.46 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 24 | 24 | 145 | 613 | 125 | 59 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.59 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 23 | 23 | 136 | 576 | 115 | 58 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.76 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 21 | 21 | 127 | 537 | 105 | 56 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.97 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 58 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.7% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 2.6% | 4.51 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 18 | 18 | 106 | 448 | 92 | 42 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 2.6% | 4.42 | 4.36 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 20 | 20 | 122 | 515 | 106 | 48 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.7% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 4.41 | 4.40 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 21 | 21 | 128 | 540 | 111 | 51 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.6% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.49 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 109 | 52 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.62 | +1.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 104 | 52 | 16 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.79 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 96 | 51 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.88 | 5.00 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 133 | 133 | 793 | 3349 | 678 | 325 | 97 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.22 | +11.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 171 | 82 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 106 | 98 | 488 | 2100 | 372 | 213 | 49 | 92% | 4.6 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 4.44 | 4.17 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 40 | 200 | 860 | 152 | 87 | 20 | 92% | 4.6 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 4.44 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jean Cabrera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 18.2% | 10.3% | 2.5% | — | 4.38 | 20.3% | 10.9% | 475 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.43 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .271 | 5.94 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.51 | 4.43 | 358 | 87 |
| Blayne Weller R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.15 | 16.0% | 9.7% | 2.1% | .326 | 5.67 | 17.6% | 8.4% | 103 | +1.52 | 4.15 | 254 | 87 |
| Carlos Pimentel R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.56 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .266 | 4.17 | 15.8% | 5.8% | 158 | -0.39 | 4.14 | 301 | 86 |
| Keyvius Sampson R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.11 | 16.9% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .314 | 4.66 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 181 | +0.55 | 4.11 | 316 | 86 |
| Tyler Herb R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.32 | 17.2% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .298 | 4.89 | 15.7% | 7.0% | 378 | +0.57 | 3.87 | 867 | 86 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.36 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.88 | 16.1% | 7.3% | 157 | +0.52 | 4.04 | 402 | 86 |
| Chad Kuhl R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.93 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.73 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 131 | +0.80 | 3.93 | 983 | 85 |
| Tony Dibrell R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.59 | 16.0% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.79 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 58 | +1.20 | 4.21 | 347 | 84 |
| Austin Love R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.19 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .358 | 3.51 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.68 | 3.51 | 220 | 84 |
| Brady Feigl R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.81 | 15.9% | 7.0% | 2.1% | .333 | 5.77 | 19.4% | 9.8% | 122 | +1.96 | 3.81 | 257 | 83 |
| Rafael Montero R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.6% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .325 | 3.79 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 177 | -0.87 | 2.38 | 663 | 83 |
| Michael Kelly R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.28 | 14.6% | -9.6% | 67 | +2.05 | 2.83 | 666 | 82 |
| Brian Howard R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.76 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .356 | 5.55 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 180 | +1.79 | 3.70 | 490 | 82 |
| Heath Fillmyer R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.38 | 15.1% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.53 | 18.8% | 7.5% | 155 | +1.15 | 3.50 | 687 | 82 |
| Jeff Hoffman R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.81 | 18.7% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .291 | 4.36 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 282 | +0.55 | 2.11 | 1,046 | 82 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.16 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .287 | 4.01 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 393 | -0.15 | 3.80 | 651 | 82 |
| Félix Peña R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.68 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .296 | 3.92 | 24.0% | 15.6% | 263 | +0.24 | 2.84 | 615 | 82 |
| Mark Appel R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.21 | 16.2% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .304 | 4.86 | 14.9% | 1.1% | 120 | +0.65 | 4.17 | 363 | 82 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 15.7% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .260 | 4.50 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 343 | +0.44 | 3.73 | 725 | 81 |
| Mike Vasil R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.04 | 15.8% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .310 | 3.87 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 101 | -1.17 | 3.71 | 429 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 149 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 1.08 | 4.54 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |