Jean Cabrera — OGILVIE

Jean Cabrera P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 145 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.5 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION88 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%18.2%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%8.1%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL—55

CMD4555

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$7M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$10M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	13	13	53	196	61	10	1	100%	4.1	21.2%	6.4%	14.8%	0.8%	1.54	2.57	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	13	13	53	196	61	10	1	100%	4.1	31.1%	5.1%	26.0%	0.5%	1.54	1.60	—
2022	20	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	12	12	46	213	51	28	8	100%	3.9	17.7%	15.5%	2.2%	4.9%	5.24	6.25	—
2022	20	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	12	12	46	213	51	28	8	100%	3.9	23.9%	13.1%	10.8%	3.8%	5.24	4.96	—
2023	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	19	13	81	358	86	22	3	68%	4.3	17.8%	7.3%	10.5%	1.1%	4.32	3.12	—
2023	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	19	13	81	358	86	22	3	68%	4.3	17.8%	7.3%	10.5%	1.1%	4.32	3.12	—
2023	21	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	19	13	81	358	86	22	3	68%	4.3	24.0%	6.1%	17.9%	0.8%	4.32	2.28	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	107	446	110	33	6	95%	5.3	19.2%	8.4%	10.7%	1.8%	3.80	3.54	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	107	446	110	33	6	95%	5.3	19.2%	8.4%	10.7%	1.8%	3.80	3.54	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	107	446	110	33	6	95%	5.3	24.7%	7.4%	17.3%	1.3%	3.80	2.70	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	26	26	137	573	127	61	11	100%	5.3	18.0%	11.7%	6.2%	2.2%	3.81	4.29	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	26	26	137	573	127	61	11	100%	5.3	18.0%	11.7%	6.2%	2.2%	3.81	4.29	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	26	26	137	573	127	61	11	100%	5.3	22.2%	10.6%	11.5%	1.9%	3.81	3.63	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	21	20	88	424	67	44	14	95%	4.2	12.9%	10.5%	2.4%	3.9%	7.64	5.47	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	21	20	88	424	67	44	14	95%	4.2	12.9%	10.5%	2.4%	3.9%	7.64	5.47	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	PHI	14	13	60	284	46	24	11	93%	4.3	16.2%	8.5%	7.7%	3.9%	6.86	4.93	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	PHI	7	7	28	140	21	20	3	100%	4.0	15.0%	14.3%	0.7%	2.1%	9.32	4.82	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	PHI	2	2	13	55	10	6	1	100%	6.6	18.2%	10.1%	8.1%	2.5%	4.61	4.61	+0.0
ROS	24	MLB CTX	PHI	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	18.2%	10.1%	8.1%	2.7%	4.71	4.71	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	101	479	77	50	15	—	—	16.1%	10.3%	5.7%	3.2%	7.25	5.36	-0.5
FULL	24	MLB A+C	PHI	—	—	1	6	1	1	0	—	—	18.2%	10.1%	8.1%	2.7%	4.71	4.33	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PHI	27	27	159	671	132	63	17	100%	5.9	19.7%	9.4%	10.3%	2.6%	4.47	4.41	+0.9
2028	26	MLB MLE	PHI	26	26	159	671	138	62	17	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.2%	11.4%	2.6%	4.38	4.33	+1.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	PHI	26	26	157	661	137	61	18	100%	6.0	20.7%	9.2%	11.4%	2.7%	4.37	4.37	+1.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	PHI	25	25	152	641	132	60	18	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.4%	11.2%	2.8%	4.41	4.45	+0.8
2031	29	MLB MLE	PHI	24	24	145	613	125	59	18	100%	6.0	20.3%	9.6%	10.8%	2.9%	4.51	4.58	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	PHI	23	23	136	576	115	57	18	100%	5.9	20.0%	9.9%	10.1%	3.1%	4.66	4.76	+0.2
2033	31	MLB MLE	PHI	21	21	127	537	105	55	18	100%	6.1	19.6%	10.2%	9.3%	3.3%	4.84	4.96	-0.1
2034	32	MLB MLE	PHI	20	20	118	497	95	53	18	100%	5.9	19.1%	10.6%	8.5%	3.6%	5.05	5.18	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	PHI	13	13	77	325	64	31	9	100%	5.9	19.7%	9.4%	10.3%	2.7%	4.57	4.51	+0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	PHI	18	18	110	464	96	43	13	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.2%	11.4%	2.8%	4.48	4.43	+0.7
2029	27	MLB CTX	PHI	21	21	124	524	108	48	15	100%	5.9	20.7%	9.2%	11.4%	2.9%	4.48	4.48	+0.8
2030	28	MLB CTX	PHI	22	22	129	545	112	51	16	100%	5.9	20.6%	9.4%	11.2%	3.0%	4.52	4.56	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	PHI	21	21	128	540	110	52	17	100%	6.1	20.3%	9.6%	10.8%	3.1%	4.63	4.70	+0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	PHI	20	20	123	519	104	51	17	100%	6.2	20.0%	9.9%	10.1%	3.3%	4.78	4.88	+0.2
2033	31	MLB CTX	PHI	20	20	117	494	97	51	18	100%	5.8	19.6%	10.2%	9.3%	3.6%	4.97	5.09	-0.1
2034	32	MLB CTX	PHI	18	18	109	460	88	49	18	100%	6.1	19.1%	10.6%	8.5%	3.9%	5.19	5.32	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		154	154	919	3880	780	377	123	100%	6.0	20.1%	9.7%	10.4%	3.2%	4.70	4.37	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	170	82	27	100%	6.0	20.1%	9.7%	10.4%	3.2%	4.70	4.37	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		111	103	512	2210	386	221	53	93%	4.6	17.5%	10.0%	7.5%	2.4%	4.44	4.21	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	40	200	863	151	86	21	93%	4.6	17.5%	10.0%	7.5%	2.4%	4.44	4.21	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jean Cabrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	18.2%	10.1%	2.5%	—	4.37	20.3%	11.0%	475	-0.24	—	—	—
Blayne Weller R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	16.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.326	5.65	17.6%	8.4%	103	+1.50	4.15	254	87
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	87
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	86
Tyler Herb R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	17.2%	10.1%	2.5%	.298	4.67	15.7%	7.0%	378	+0.38	3.79	867	86
Keyvius Sampson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	24	SP	4.10	16.9%	12.2%	1.6%	.314	4.55	21.2%	7.9%	181	+0.45	4.10	316	86
Tony Dibrell R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.0%	11.7%	2.5%	.302	5.67	20.5%	6.2%	58	+1.05	4.18	347	84
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	236	84
Brady Feigl R 2019 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP	3.93	15.9%	7.0%	2.3%	.333	5.26	19.4%	9.8%	122	+1.33	3.93	257	84
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	84
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.68	17.7%	9.7%	415	-0.06	4.33	536	83
Chad Kuhl R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP	4.03	20.9%	9.6%	2.7%	.311	4.88	21.9%	11.3%	131	+0.85	3.92	983	83
Brian Howard R 2019 · 3.76 FIP	24	SP	3.76	17.6%	8.1%	2.0%	.356	5.50	17.6%	8.5%	180	+1.74	3.67	490	83
Tyler Woessner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP	4.10	16.4%	11.8%	1.6%	.307	5.29	17.6%	4.0%	76	+1.19	4.10	197	82
Rafael Montero R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	16.6%	11.0%	3.0%	.325	3.81	23.3%	13.2%	177	-0.95	2.43	670	82
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	82
Mark Appel R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.2%	9.5%	2.5%	.304	4.87	14.9%	1.1%	120	+0.58	4.22	363	82
Heath Fillmyer R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	24	SP	4.42	15.1%	9.3%	2.6%	.306	5.59	18.8%	7.5%	155	+1.17	3.52	687	82
Jeff Hoffman R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	18.7%	8.9%	2.4%	.291	4.62	20.9%	11.4%	282	+0.63	1.96	1,067	82
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.77	666	82
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.5	146	19.9%	9.7%	1.11	4.57
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98