Jean Cabrera
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 145 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.6 · 2029
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.6%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%9.3%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.6peak
2029
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 13 | 13 | 53 | 196 | 61 | 10 | 1 | 21.2% | 6.4% | 0.9% | 1.54 | 2.61 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 12 | 12 | 46 | 213 | 51 | 28 | 8 | 17.7% | 15.5% | 4.9% | 5.24 | 6.25 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 19 | 13 | 81 | 358 | 86 | 22 | 3 | 17.8% | 7.3% | 1.1% | 4.32 | 3.12 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 20 | 19 | 107 | 446 | 110 | 33 | 6 | 19.2% | 8.4% | 1.8% | 3.80 | 3.56 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 26 | 26 | 137 | 573 | 127 | 61 | 11 | 18.0% | 11.7% | 2.2% | 3.81 | 4.29 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 3 | 3 | 12 | 59 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 17.9% | 8.9% | 1.9% | 8.03 | 3.74 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PHI | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 40 | 21 | 5 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 60 | 262 | 52 | 26 | 6 | 19.8% | 9.9% | 2.3% | 5.24 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 24 | 24 | 134 | 564 | 115 | 54 | 14 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 4.43 | 4.38 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 26 | 26 | 140 | 593 | 124 | 56 | 15 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 4.37 | 4.34 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 127 | 57 | 16 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 126 | 57 | 16 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 123 | 56 | 16 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 25 | 25 | 136 | 573 | 118 | 55 | 16 | 20.6% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 24 | 24 | 131 | 553 | 112 | 54 | 16 | 20.3% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.55 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 107 | 52 | 16 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.64 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 100 | 51 | 15 | 19.8% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 21 | 21 | 114 | 482 | 93 | 49 | 15 | 19.4% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.78 | 4.85 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 86 | 48 | 15 | 19.0% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 4.97 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 79 | 45 | 14 | 18.6% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 5.02 | 5.10 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | PHI | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 71 | 43 | 14 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 5.16 | 5.25 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 93 | 86 | 436 | 1845 | 342 | 181 | 38 | 18.5% | 9.8% | 2.1% | 3.90 | 3.92 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 39 | 200 | 846 | 157 | 83 | 17 | 18.5% | 9.8% | 2.1% | 3.90 | 3.92 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jean Cabrera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 2.5% | — | 4.36 | 20.7% | 11.2% | 417 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Dylan Hall R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.48 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 1.4% | .305 | 5.78 | 17.8% | 4.9% | 107 | +2.30 | 3.48 | 153 | 92 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.48 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.53 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -0.95 | 1.94 | 131 | 92 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .282 | 5.28 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.56 | 3.72 | 105 | 91 |
| Kyle Whitten R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 18.0% | 9.5% | 2.8% | .296 | 5.22 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 37 | +0.88 | 4.33 | 143 | 91 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.83 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .289 | 4.21 | 24.7% | 12.1% | 62 | +0.38 | 3.83 | 181 | 90 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.53 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.08 | 3.01 | 214 | 90 |
| Josh Advocate R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.4% | .291 | 3.68 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 75 | -0.06 | 3.68 | 118 | 90 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.37 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.86 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.49 | 4.37 | 412 | 90 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.59 | 17.7% | 7.4% | 1.9% | .303 | 4.11 | 16.6% | 9.3% | 92 | +0.52 | 3.46 | 198 | 89 |
| Roman Mendez R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 89 |
| Josh Uhen R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.10 | 16.1% | 9.7% | 2.1% | .303 | 4.01 | 15.6% | 1.2% | 82 | -0.09 | 3.16 | 185 | 89 |
| Blake Goldsberry R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.05 | 16.4% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .267 | 4.51 | 23.6% | 13.4% | 75 | +0.46 | 3.39 | 117 | 89 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 89 |
| Hunter Stanley R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.87 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.33 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 148 | +1.46 | 3.87 | 162 | 88 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 88 |
| Armando Ruiz R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.22 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 113 | 88 |
| Ryan Shreve R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 1.6% | .260 | 4.77 | 15.8% | 6.2% | 203 | +1.08 | 3.15 | 290 | 88 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 88 |
| Micah Dallas R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.09 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .273 | 3.61 | 17.5% | 9.0% | 50 | -0.48 | 3.61 | 147 | 87 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.5 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.6 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.5 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $3M | +1.4 | $13M | +$10M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.3 | $12M | +$8M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.1 | $11M | +$5M |
| Totals | $16M | $76M | +$60M | ||