Philip Abner

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 25 LHP 6'1" / 230 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX3 levels	26	2	34	1.85	1.75	27.9%	7.4%	—	K 21.0% · BB 8.4% · FIP 2.39
2025	23	MIX4 levels	58	0	62	3.18	2.51	29.6%	6.3%	1.5	K 23.1% · BB 6.1% · FIP 3.13
2026	24	MIX2 levels	49	0	57	5.40	4.11	21.1%	9.6%	0.3	K 18.7% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.32
2027PROJ	25	MLBSF	35	0	37	4.60	4.64	19.7%	8.7%	-0.0
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBSF	26	0	27	4.57	4.57	20.4%	8.7%	-0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBSF	35	0	37	4.57	4.59	20.6%	8.8%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo10

Whiff%10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsTyler Webb (age 25) · C.J. Wilson (age 25) · Tony Watson (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.60

FIP4.64

K%19.7%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%11.0%

Proj IP37

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.6

Whiff%

p1018.2%

p1011.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.408

FB+0.6 (73%)

CU (1%)

SL-1.3 (25%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	4	0	7	29	6	4	0	0%	1.7	20.7%	13.8%	6.9%	0.0%	5.40	3.10	—
2023	21	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	4	0	7	29	6	4	0	0%	1.7	20.7%	13.8%	6.9%	0.0%	5.40	3.10	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	2	34	136	38	10	0	8%	1.3	21.0%	8.4%	12.6%	0.0%	1.85	2.39	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	2	34	136	38	10	0	8%	1.3	21.0%	8.4%	12.6%	0.0%	1.85	2.39	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	2	34	136	38	10	0	8%	1.3	27.9%	7.4%	20.6%	0.0%	1.85	1.75	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	58	0	62	253	75	16	5	0%	1.1	23.1%	6.1%	17.0%	2.2%	3.18	3.13	+1.1
2025	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	58	0	62	253	75	16	5	0%	1.1	23.1%	6.1%	17.0%	2.2%	3.18	3.13	+1.1
2025	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	58	0	62	253	75	16	5	0%	1.1	29.6%	6.3%	23.3%	2.0%	3.18	2.51	+1.5
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	57	251	53	24	7	0%	1.2	18.7%	9.0%	9.7%	3.0%	5.40	4.32	+0.2
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	57	251	53	24	7	0%	1.2	18.7%	9.0%	9.7%	3.0%	5.40	4.32	+0.2
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	57	251	53	24	7	0%	1.2	21.1%	9.6%	11.6%	2.8%	5.40	4.11	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			18	0	23	104	15	14	6	0%	1.3	14.4%	13.5%	1.0%	5.8%	6.75	7.07	-0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SF	35	0	37	156	31	14	5	0%	1.1	19.7%	8.7%	11.0%	3.1%	4.60	4.64	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	53	0	56	237	48	21	7	0%	1.1	20.4%	8.7%	11.8%	3.1%	4.57	4.57	-0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	53	0	55	233	48	21	7	0%	1.0	20.6%	8.8%	11.9%	3.2%	4.57	4.59	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	26	0	27	114	23	10	4	0%	1.0	20.4%	8.7%	11.8%	3.1%	4.57	4.57	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	35	0	37	156	32	14	5	0%	1.1	20.6%	8.8%	11.9%	3.2%	4.57	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		79	0	86	373	70	37	14	0%	1.1	18.8%	10.1%	8.8%	3.9%	5.14	4.91	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		182	0	200	864	162	86	32	0%	1.1	18.8%	10.1%	8.8%	3.9%	5.14	4.91	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		137	2	160	669	140	53	13	1%	1.2	20.9%	8.0%	12.9%	2.0%	3.78	3.43	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		172	3	200	838	175	67	16	1%	1.2	20.9%	8.0%	12.9%	2.0%	3.78	3.43	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Philip Abner (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	19.7%	8.7%	3.1%	—	4.58	20.5%	11.8%	111	-0.06	—	—	—
Tyler Webb L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	25	SU	3.80	21.6%	6.9%	3.0%	.324	3.31	24.3%	17.3%	185	-0.49	3.10	337	85
C.J. Wilson L 2006 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	22.5%	8.9%	3.7%	.258	3.47	22.9%	12.4%	188	-0.87	2.55	1,430	83
Tony Watson L 2011 · 4.52 FIP	26	SU	4.52	21.3%	9.2%	3.7%	.243	2.98	23.5%	17.6%	202	-1.54	2.21	648	83
Mike Zagurski L 2007 · 4.10 FIP	24	SU	4.10	20.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	81
Walter Pennington L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	25	SU	3.91	21.3%	10.8%	2.2%	.296	3.19	25.3%	16.2%	99	-0.72	2.49	261	80
Travis Bergen L 2019 · 4.70 FIP	25	SU	4.70	21.5%	10.3%	3.8%	.259	4.48	22.9%	4.6%	47	-0.22	2.48	143	80
Cesar Jimenez L 2008 · 3.49 FIP	23	SU	3.49	18.4%	9.2%	1.4%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	148	80
Elvis Araujo L 2016 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	21.0%	9.8%	2.8%	.308	5.18	22.9%	11.1%	38	+1.09	2.46	120	79
Lucas Luetge L 2012 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	21.3%	10.1%	1.7%	.286	4.39	15.0%	5.5%	86	+0.86	2.53	508	79
Joe La Sorsa L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	25	SU	4.00	17.2%	6.6%	2.8%	.304	3.86	17.3%	10.8%	155	-0.14	2.89	364	79
Wayne Franklin L 2000 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	20.4%	10.7%	1.9%	.319	5.53	13.7%	2.4%	231	+1.73	3.80	315	78
Dylan Lee L 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	19.5%	8.5%	3.4%	.277	2.62	29.0%	25.0%	113	-1.79	2.02	551	78
Ryan Sherriff L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	25	SU	4.27	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.317	3.28	18.8%	11.9%	135	-0.99	2.96	245	78
Brandon Eisert L 2023 · 4.22 FIP	25	SU	4.22	22.5%	7.8%	3.7%	.317	3.69	24.7%	17.7%	194	-0.53	3.24	384	78
Greg Mahle L 2018 · 4.14 FIP	25	SU	4.14	18.3%	8.6%	2.7%	.277	4.89	14.2%	7.1%	88	+0.75	2.64	330	78
Doug Slaten L 2007 · 4.08 FIP	27	SU	4.08	17.2%	8.6%	2.5%	.316	3.81	17.6%	8.2%	73	-0.27	3.22	139	77
Scott Stewart L 2001 · 3.65 FIP	25	SU	3.65	19.6%	6.5%	2.5%	.268	3.32	21.2%	15.5%	133	-0.33	2.60	181	77
Brooks Raley L 2013 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	23.0%	13.1%	3.4%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	294	77
Sam Moll L 2017 · 3.85 FIP	25	SU	3.85	17.0%	8.2%	2.1%	.329	2.83	19.9%	10.4%	57	-1.02	2.38	507	77
David Rollins L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	25	SU	3.78	17.8%	5.9%	2.6%	.391	4.76	16.9%	10.5%	107	+0.98	3.59	132	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	19.5%	9.4%	1.36	4.87
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*