Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 6 | 70 | 286 | 69 | 19 | 10 | 19% | 2.3 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 4.5% | 3.60 | 5.02 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 6 | 70 | 286 | 69 | 19 | 10 | 19% | 2.3 | 24.1% | 6.6% | 17.5% | 3.5% | 3.60 | 3.80 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 1 | 73 | 277 | 87 | 8 | 6 | 2% | 1.8 | 24.7% | 3.3% | 21.4% | 2.7% | 2.33 | 2.90 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 1 | 73 | 277 | 87 | 8 | 6 | 2% | 1.8 | 31.4% | 2.9% | 28.5% | 2.2% | 2.33 | 2.12 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 3 | 69 | 309 | 57 | 21 | 8 | 6% | 1.4 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.02 | 4.01 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 3 | 69 | 309 | 57 | 21 | 8 | 6% | 1.4 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 11.7% | 2.6% | 4.02 | 3.86 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 0 | 74 | 299 | 55 | 14 | 11 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.7% | 4.8% | 11.9% | 4.0% | 2.81 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 0 | 74 | 299 | 55 | 14 | 11 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.4% | 4.7% | 13.7% | 3.7% | 2.81 | 4.12 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 55 | 241 | 46 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 12.6% | 6.0% | 0.8% | 3.58 | 3.56 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 55 | 241 | 46 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 3.58 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 51 | 4 | 59 | 233 | 49 | 13 | 5 | 8% | 1.2 | 18.3% | 5.9% | 12.4% | 1.9% | 3.22 | 3.35 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | PIT | 40 | 0 | 42 | 176 | 27 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 10.1% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 4.69 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | PIT | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 27 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.4% | 10.1% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 4.69 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 100 | 409 | 76 | 31 | 10 | — | — | 18.6% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 2.3% | 3.83 | 3.99 | +1.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 42 | 177 | 76 | 31 | 10 | — | — | 42.9% | 17.4% | 25.6% | 5.4% | 9.15 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 57 | 0 | 60 | 252 | 39 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 10.2% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 53 | 0 | 56 | 237 | 37 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.5% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 5.00 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 38 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 10.2% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 35 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.5% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 5.00 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 191 | 0 | 209 | 894 | 145 | 81 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 4.99 | 4.72 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 183 | 0 | 200 | 856 | 139 | 78 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 4.99 | 4.72 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 282 | 14 | 400 | 1645 | 311 | 112 | 47 | 5% | 1.4 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 3.24 | 3.93 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 7 | 200 | 822 | 156 | 56 | 23 | 5% | 1.4 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 3.24 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe La Sorsa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.88 | 15.4% | 10.1% | 2.6% | — | 5.06 | 15.6% | 5.2% | 116 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Lucas Luetge L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.89 | 14.0% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .299 | 4.27 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 87 | -0.62 | 2.52 | 430 | 77 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.04 | 15.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .324 | 4.73 | 19.8% | 6.5% | 53 | -0.31 | 3.33 | 228 | 76 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2027 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.01 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.33 | 3.47 | 512 | 75 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 73 |
| Nick Ramirez L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.27 | 14.3% | 11.9% | 1.6% | .269 | 3.81 | 21.5% | 13.4% | 162 | -0.46 | 2.93 | 478 | 72 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.22 | 11.8% | 10.8% | 1.4% | .253 | 2.74 | 19.0% | 16.6% | 57 | -1.48 | 2.22 | 487 | 71 |
| Aaron Fletcher L 2024 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.26 | 11.3% | 11.5% | 3.0% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.31 | 167 | 71 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.72 | 14.9% | 13.9% | 2.1% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 133 | 71 |
| Wei-Chung Wang L 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.76 | 16.0% | 8.7% | 3.5% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 387 | 70 |
| Colton Johnson L 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.49 | 12.2% | 12.6% | 1.5% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 106 | 70 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 70 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.93 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 244 | 69 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 2.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 141 | 69 |
| Justin Wright L 2024 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.48 | 14.7% | 13.7% | 1.6% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.28 | 109 | 69 |
| Dan Runzler L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.77 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.24 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.47 | 3.77 | 127 | 69 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.01 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 3.8% | .328 | 4.42 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.59 | 3.47 | 315 | 69 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 69 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 69 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2025 · 5.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.40 | 12.0% | 11.4% | 3.4% | .343 | 8.50 | 14.7% | 2.5% | 29 | +3.10 | 3.12 | 142 | 69 |
| Ozzie Mendez L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.92 | 12.7% | 6.8% | 1.9% | .318 | 5.61 | 10.8% | 2.1% | 77 | +1.69 | 3.86 | 161 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 53 | 15.5% | 10.3% | 1.09 | 4.86 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |