Walter Pennington
P
Chesapeake Baysox
Age 28
LHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95104vR 113
ERA4.21
FIP4.14
K%24.3%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%14.3%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1089.6
Whiff%
p5826.5%
K%
p3620.2%
xwOBA vs
p180.350
FB+1.5 (33%)
SI (30%)
CT-0.8 (26%)
SL-2.3 (41%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 43 | 185 | 40 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 1.0% | 3.32 | 3.45 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 43 | 185 | 40 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 21.6% | 7.6% | 14.1% | 1.6% | 3.32 | 3.12 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 1 | 68 | 298 | 61 | 26 | 4 | 3% | 1.9 | 15.1% | 9.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 5.19 | 4.24 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 1 | 68 | 298 | 61 | 26 | 4 | 3% | 1.9 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 1.3% | 5.19 | 3.22 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 1 | 71 | 294 | 75 | 35 | 5 | 2% | 1.4 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 3.18 | 4.17 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 1 | 71 | 294 | 75 | 35 | 5 | 2% | 1.4 | 25.5% | 11.9% | 13.6% | 1.7% | 3.18 | 3.38 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 3 | 81 | 339 | 99 | 32 | 7 | 5% | 1.5 | 26.3% | 9.7% | 16.6% | 2.6% | 2.32 | 3.52 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 3 | 81 | 339 | 99 | 32 | 7 | 5% | 1.5 | 29.2% | 9.4% | 19.8% | 2.1% | 2.32 | 2.96 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 1 | 22 | 96 | 27 | 13 | 0 | 6% | 1.2 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 0.0% | 4.15 | 2.49 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 1 | 22 | 96 | 27 | 13 | 0 | 6% | 1.2 | 28.1% | 13.5% | 14.6% | 0.0% | 4.15 | 2.41 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 0 | 24 | 102 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 10.0% | 14.3% | 2.6% | 4.21 | 4.14 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 10.1% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 10.1% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.32 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 23 | 1 | 25 | 114 | 24 | 14 | 2 | 4% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 3.37 | 3.76 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 181 | 8 | 200 | 908 | 190 | 111 | 16 | 4% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 3.37 | 3.76 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 183 | 6 | 285 | 1212 | 249 | 126 | 24 | 3% | 1.6 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 2.0% | 3.51 | 3.76 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 129 | 4 | 200 | 852 | 175 | 88 | 17 | 3% | 1.6 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 2.0% | 3.51 | 3.76 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Walter Pennington (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.14 | 24.3% | 10.0% | 2.6% | — | 4.32 | 23.6% | 13.5% | 23 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 4.1% | .296 | 2.67 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -2.02 | 2.51 | 160 | 78 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.80 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 3.4% | .242 | 4.68 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 109 | +0.88 | 3.80 | 172 | 78 |
| Tyler Webb L 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.33 | 23.2% | 7.4% | 2.3% | .280 | 4.48 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 115 | +1.15 | 3.10 | 337 | 77 |
| Danny Coulombe L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.30 | 23.0% | 7.9% | 3.9% | .326 | 3.53 | 28.3% | 21.6% | 91 | -0.77 | 2.46 | 483 | 76 |
| Tommy Layne L 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 76 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 76 |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 76 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.10 | 26.2% | 13.5% | 0.9% | .220 | 4.33 | 24.7% | 12.5% | 92 | +1.23 | 3.10 | 137 | 75 |
| Xavier Cedeño L 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.03 | 24.9% | 6.3% | 2.2% | .286 | 2.51 | 25.2% | 17.2% | 96 | -0.52 | 2.48 | 142 | 75 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2027 · 3.04 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.04 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 1.7% | .238 | 5.18 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 88 | +2.14 | 3.04 | 145 | 75 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.67 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 2.1% | .268 | 4.83 | 23.6% | 13.5% | 50 | +1.16 | 2.83 | 155 | 74 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.06 | 23.4% | 6.7% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.13 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 56 | +1.07 | 3.06 | 145 | 74 |
| Josh Edgin L 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.2% | .359 | 3.67 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.09 | 3.36 | 113 | 74 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.61 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .336 | 3.52 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.09 | 3.41 | 160 | 74 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.09 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 1.2% | .294 | 3.85 | 17.8% | 8.5% | 188 | +0.76 | 3.09 | 244 | 74 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.21 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.04 | 153 | 73 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 73 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.63 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.84 | 238 | 72 |
| Will Smith L 2025 · 3.03 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.03 | 28.7% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 2.56 | 35.8% | 29.4% | 118 | -0.47 | 1.76 | 464 | 72 |
| Dean Kiekhefer L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.64 | 18.0% | 8.7% | 1.7% | .350 | 3.04 | 17.5% | 14.1% | 58 | -0.60 | 3.04 | 219 | 71 |