Walter Pennington
P
Chesapeake Baysox
+0.3
WAR
Age 28
LHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA3.68
FIP4.13
xFIP4.87
SIERA4.66
K%24.1%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%14.1%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p1089.6
Whiff%
p5826.5%
K%
p3620.2%
xwOBA vs
p180.350
FB+1.5 (33%)
SI (30%)
CT-0.8 (26%)
SL-2.3 (41%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 25 | 0 | 43 | 185 | 40 | 14 | 3 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 1.3% | 3.32 | 3.59 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 36 | 1 | 68 | 298 | 61 | 26 | 4 | 15.1% | 9.9% | 1.9% | 5.19 | 4.12 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 49 | 1 | 71 | 294 | 75 | 35 | 5 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 2.2% | 3.18 | 4.07 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 55 | 3 | 81 | 339 | 99 | 32 | 7 | 26.3% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 2.32 | 3.43 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 18 | 1 | 22 | 96 | 27 | 13 | 0 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 0.0% | 4.15 | 2.49 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 24.1% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 3.68 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 33 | 14 | 4 | 23.5% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.32 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 26 | 13 | 4 | 21.1% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 183 | 6 | 285 | 1212 | 249 | 126 | 23 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 1.9% | 3.51 | 3.70 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 129 | 4 | 200 | 852 | 175 | 89 | 16 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 1.9% | 3.51 | 3.70 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Walter Pennington (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.13 | 24.1% | 10.0% | 2.6% | — | 4.32 | 23.0% | 13.0% | 98 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 81 |
| Tommy Layne L 2028 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 80 |
| Xavier Cedeño L 2026 · 2.95 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.95 | 24.9% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .286 | 2.49 | 25.2% | 17.2% | 96 | -0.46 | 2.48 | 142 | 79 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .242 | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.0% | 63 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 126 | 78 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2027 · 3.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.19 | 26.2% | 13.5% | 1.1% | .220 | 4.27 | 24.7% | 12.5% | 92 | +1.08 | 3.19 | 137 | 77 |
| Josh Edgin L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.63 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.3% | .359 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.20 | 3.62 | 113 | 77 |
| Tyler Webb L 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.32 | 23.2% | 7.4% | 2.2% | .280 | 4.56 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 115 | +1.24 | 3.10 | 337 | 76 |
| Mike Dunn L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 76 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 76 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.67 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.20 | 3.47 | 160 | 76 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.89 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .268 | 4.84 | 23.6% | 13.5% | 50 | +0.95 | 2.92 | 155 | 75 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2027 · 2.98 FIP | 29 | SW | 2.98 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .238 | 5.33 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 88 | +2.35 | 2.98 | 145 | 75 |
| Boone Logan L 2028 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .352 | 3.11 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.06 | 2.64 | 113 | 75 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.58 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.84 | 238 | 75 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.09 | 23.4% | 6.7% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.08 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 56 | +0.99 | 3.09 | 145 | 74 |
| Will Smith L 2025 · 3.05 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.05 | 28.7% | 10.2% | 2.0% | .283 | 2.58 | 35.8% | 29.4% | 118 | -0.47 | 1.76 | 464 | 74 |
| Danny Coulombe L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.40 | 23.0% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .326 | 3.70 | 28.3% | 21.6% | 91 | -0.70 | 2.48 | 461 | 74 |
| Adam Morgan L 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.44 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 2.2% | .314 | 3.96 | 26.1% | 17.8% | 84 | +0.52 | 3.44 | 522 | 74 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.06 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 1.1% | .294 | 3.79 | 17.8% | 8.5% | 188 | +0.73 | 3.06 | 244 | 74 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.03 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.48 | 134 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.