Vincent Perozo
C Binghamton Rumble Ponies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | ANYM | 271 | .173/.285/.229 | 1 | 4 | 18 | — | .146/.232/.192 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+/ANYM | 290 | .237/.349/.335 | 3 | 5 | 63 | — | .209/.301/.299 |
| 2026 | 23 | AA/A+NYM | 300 | .199/.268/.335 | 10 | 1 | 33 | — | .170/.228/.278 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBNYM | 4 | .155/.219/.244 | 0 | 0 | 34 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 25 | MLBNYM | 67 | .160/.225/.254 | 1 | 1 | 38 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Mets | — | 66 | 52 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 173 | 348 | 269 | 618 | 96 | 267 | 32 | 15 | 303 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 35 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 129 | 206 | 323 | 528 | 194 | 130 | 23 | 3 | 230 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Mets | — | 142 | 120 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 283 | 390 | 475 | 865 | 192 | 353 | 23 | 8 | 384 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 342 | 297 | 67 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 103 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 226 | 324 | 380 | 704 | 155 | 314 | 30 | 9 | 318 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 271 | 231 | 40 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 81 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 173 | 285 | 229 | 514 | 56 | 255 | 30 | 10 | 246 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 68 | 60 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 167 | 265 | 200 | 465 | 33 | 244 | 28 | 7 | 228 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 222 | 185 | 48 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 42 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 259 | 376 | 378 | 754 | 119 | 319 | 19 | 11 | 345 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 231 | 210 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 83 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 181 | 249 | 329 | 577 | 148 | 248 | 36 | 4 | 260 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 69 | 62 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 258 | 333 | 355 | 688 | 97 | 298 | 19 | 7 | 316 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 66 | 55 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 109 | 258 | 182 | 439 | 73 | 208 | 45 | 11 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 35 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 129 | 206 | 323 | 528 | 194 | 122 | 31 | 3 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 142 | 124 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 284 | 306 | 590 | 121 | 265 | 34 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 342 | 306 | 47 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 148 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 154 | 238 | 242 | 480 | 88 | 266 | 43 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 271 | 240 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 111 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 146 | 232 | 192 | 424 | 46 | 244 | 41 | 7 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 68 | 62 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 145 | 221 | 177 | 398 | 32 | 218 | 37 | 4 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 222 | 193 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 54 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 228 | 326 | 337 | 663 | 109 | 292 | 24 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 231 | 213 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 101 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 155 | 214 | 268 | 482 | 113 | 244 | 44 | 3 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 69 | 64 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 275 | 312 | 588 | 94 | 255 | 25 | 4 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 66 | 55 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 109 | 258 | 182 | 439 | 73 | 208 | 45 | 11 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Mets | — | 66 | 52 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 173 | 348 | 269 | 618 | 96 | 267 | 32 | 15 | 303 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 177 | 156 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 257 | 282 | 539 | 115 | 240 | 33 | 4 | 243 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 177 | 151 | 38 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 40 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 252 | 354 | 444 | 798 | 192 | 306 | 23 | 7 | 354 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 342 | 306 | 47 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 148 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 154 | 238 | 242 | 480 | 88 | 276 | 43 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | St. Lucie Mets | — | 342 | 297 | 67 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 103 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 226 | 324 | 380 | 704 | 155 | 314 | 30 | 9 | 318 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 271 | 240 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 111 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 146 | 232 | 192 | 424 | 46 | 258 | 41 | 7 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | St. Lucie Mets | — | 271 | 231 | 40 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 81 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 173 | 285 | 229 | 514 | 56 | 255 | 30 | 10 | 246 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 290 | 255 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 79 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 208 | 301 | 298 | 599 | 90 | 287 | 27 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 290 | 245 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 61 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 237 | 349 | 335 | 684 | 98 | 302 | 21 | 10 | 318 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 300 | 277 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 118 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 166 | 225 | 264 | 488 | 97 | 253 | 39 | 3 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 300 | 272 | 54 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 14 | 96 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 199 | 268 | 335 | 603 | 136 | 262 | 32 | 5 | 273 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 66 | 55 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 109 | 258 | 182 | 439 | 73 | 208 | 45 | 11 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 177 | 156 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 257 | 282 | 539 | 115 | 237 | 33 | 4 | 243 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 342 | 305 | 47 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 148 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 154 | 238 | 243 | 481 | 89 | 266 | 43 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 271 | 242 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 111 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 145 | 232 | 190 | 422 | 45 | 244 | 41 | 7 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 290 | 254 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 79 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 209 | 301 | 299 | 600 | 91 | 275 | 27 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 300 | 276 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 118 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 225 | 264 | 489 | 98 | 247 | 39 | 3 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 271 | 242 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 111 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 145 | 232 | 190 | 422 | 45 | 244 | 41 | 7 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 290 | 254 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 79 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 209 | 301 | 299 | 600 | 91 | 275 | 27 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 300 | 276 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 118 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 225 | 264 | 489 | 98 | 247 | 39 | 3 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | NYM | 2% | 350 | 320 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 135 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 159 | 223 | 250 | 473 | 91 | 245 | 39 | 5 | 218 | 34 | -28 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +8 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | NYM | 2% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 155 | 219 | 244 | 463 | 89 | 237 | 50 | 0 | 214 | 34 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | NYM | 31% | 216 | 198 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 81 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 164 | 229 | 261 | 490 | 97 | 248 | 38 | 5 | 225 | 38 | -16 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | NYM | 31% | 67 | 62 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 160 | 225 | 254 | 479 | 95 | 240 | 37 | 4 | 221 | 38 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 67 | 62 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 161 | 224 | 242 | 466 | 81 | 250 | 37 | 4 | 221 | 38 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 601 | 97 | 19 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 243 | 19 | 10 | 0 | 161 | 223 | 243 | 466 | 82 | 250 | 37 | 4 | 221 | 38 | -48 | +2 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -2.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1840 | 1650 | 269 | 52 | 5 | 26 | 103 | 695 | 72 | 16 | 12 | 163 | 243 | 248 | 491 | 85 | 258 | 38 | 6 | 224 | 38 | -30 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +9 | -1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 583 | 95 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 246 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 163 | 242 | 247 | 489 | 84 | 258 | 38 | 6 | 224 | 38 | -49 | +0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 231 PAwOBA .255 → .210 (−45)K% 35.9% → 43.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.93% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 43.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 2.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.33% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 3.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.028 | ×1.027 | 18.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.028 | ×1.027 | 5.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.028 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 5.05% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .255 → .210; ISO .148 → .110; BABIP .248 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 69 PAwOBA .308 → .244 (−63)K% 18.8% → 24.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.84% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 24.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 4.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.90% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 2.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.992 | ×0.998 | 24.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.992 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.992 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 3.58% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .308 → .244; ISO .097 → .082; BABIP .298 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ASt. Lucie Mets · 222 PAwOBA .338 → .289 (−50)K% 18.9% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.92% | ÷1.060 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.26% | ÷0.953 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.50% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 3.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.78% | ÷0.977 | ×0.920 | ×0.983 | — | 22.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.29% | ÷0.903 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | — | 5.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.40% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.983 | — | 1.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.10% | ÷0.855 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.96% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 95, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 112, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .338 → .289; ISO .119 → .106; BABIP .319 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 68 PAwOBA .223 → .171 (−52)K% 27.9% → 36.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.94% | ÷1.011 | ×1.310 | — | — | 36.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.35% | ÷1.022 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 4.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.41% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 3.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.51% | ÷1.021 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 17.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.88% | ÷0.989 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 4.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.051 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.073 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 110, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .223 → .171; ISO .033 → .026; BABIP .244 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ASt. Lucie Mets · 271 PAwOBA .244 → .195 (−49)K% 29.9% → 41.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.89% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 41.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.96% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.32% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.33% | ÷0.957 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×1.015 | 19.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.954 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×1.015 | 5.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.008 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.67% | ÷0.826 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.66% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 91, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .244 → .195; ISO .056 → .046; BABIP .255 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ASt. Lucie Mets · 342 PAwOBA .312 → .218 (−94)K% 30.1% → 43.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.12% | ÷0.947 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.36% | ÷0.977 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.22% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.10% | ÷1.054 | ×0.920 | ×0.974 | ×1.030 | 17.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.28% | ÷0.987 | ×0.830 | ×0.974 | ×1.030 | 7.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.974 | ×1.030 | 0.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.12% | ÷1.274 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.67% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 111, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 89, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .312 → .218; ISO .155 → .095; BABIP .314 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Mets · 142 PAwOBA .377 → .255 (−122)K% 22.5% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.54% | ÷0.964 | ×1.440 | — | — | 33.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.75% | ÷1.014 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 4.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.04% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 5.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.86% | ÷1.015 | ×0.820 | ×0.986 | ×1.008 | 19.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.95% | ÷1.103 | ×0.720 | ×0.986 | ×1.008 | 5.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.012 | ×0.720 | ×0.986 | ×1.008 | 1.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.078 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 3.31% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 103, 2B 121, 3B 102, K 93, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .377 → .255; ISO .192 → .122; BABIP .353 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ASt. Lucie Mets · 35 PAwOBA .230 → .193 (−37)K% 22.9% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.86% | ÷0.959 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.86% | ÷1.081 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 1.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.71% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 4.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.052 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.045 | 3.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.999 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.045 | 3.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.045 | 4.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.949 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 3.83% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 110, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 92, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .230 → .193; ISO .194 → .168; BABIP .130 → .122. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).