Nelvis Ochoa — OGILVIE

Nelvis Ochoa P FCL Orioles

Age 23 RHP 5'10" / 158 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.24

FIP4.24

K%22.3%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%14.5%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	8	1	19	79	15	3	0	12%	2.4	12.9%	4.7%	8.2%	0.0%	3.79	2.61	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	8	1	19	79	15	3	0	12%	2.4	19.0%	3.8%	15.2%	0.0%	3.79	1.99	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	17	0	35	145	37	7	3	0%	2.0	17.4%	6.0%	11.3%	2.5%	3.38	3.79	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	17	0	35	145	37	7	3	0%	2.0	17.4%	6.0%	11.3%	2.5%	3.38	3.79	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	17	0	35	145	37	7	3	0%	2.0	25.5%	4.8%	20.7%	2.1%	3.38	2.70	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	9	7	21	86	24	5	3	78%	2.3	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	4.9%	4.71	5.11	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	9	7	21	86	24	5	3	78%	2.3	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	4.9%	4.71	5.11	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	9	7	21	86	24	5	3	78%	2.3	27.9%	5.8%	22.1%	3.5%	4.71	3.39	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	BAL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	22.3%	7.8%	14.5%	3.0%	4.24	4.24	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BAL	19	0	20	84	19	7	3	0%	1.1	23.0%	7.7%	15.3%	3.0%	4.19	4.16	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	BAL	9	0	9	38	9	3	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	7.7%	15.3%	3.0%	4.19	4.16	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	3	1	0%	1.1	23.0%	7.7%	15.3%	3.0%	4.19	3.78	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	70	23	0%	1.1	23.0%	7.7%	15.3%	3.0%	4.19	3.78	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		34	8	75	310	52	19	8	24%	2.2	16.7%	6.0%	10.6%	2.5%	3.86	3.85	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	21	200	830	138	50	21	24%	2.2	16.7%	6.0%	10.6%	2.5%	3.86	3.85	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nelvis Ochoa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.24	22.3%	7.8%	3.0%	—	4.16	23.0%	15.3%	20	-0.08	—	—	—
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	83
Clayton McGinness R 2019 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	19.4%	4.5%	3.3%	.291	4.63	18.7%	7.8%	84	+0.78	3.85	106	82
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	81
Parker Curry R 2017 · 3.73 FIP	23	SU	3.73	22.5%	8.2%	2.7%	.341	4.62	18.6%	11.6%	193	+0.89	3.73	256	81
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	80
David Davalillo R 2023 · 3.33 FIP	20	SW	3.33	18.6%	6.8%	1.7%	.292	3.31	20.7%	12.3%	305	-0.02	2.96	322	80
Kevin Coulter R 2019 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.51	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.24	3.27	128	80
Joshua Loeschorn R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	24.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.272	4.43	17.1%	8.4%	83	+0.57	3.08	151	79
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	79
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	79
Fred Villarreal R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SU	3.93	17.6%	6.8%	2.6%	.331	3.64	14.1%	3.5%	63	-0.29	3.64	114	79
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	78
Chris Powell R 2016 · 3.76 FIP	23	SU	3.76	16.9%	7.8%	2.0%	.266	3.53	18.8%	15.1%	28	-0.23	3.31	102	78
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	78
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	78
Carlo Reyes R 2021 · 4.25 FIP	23	SU	4.25	25.2%	10.2%	3.6%	.291	3.99	22.3%	12.4%	117	-0.26	2.60	229	78
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	78
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	78
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	78
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	78