Nathanael Cruz — OGILVIE

Nathanael Cruz P Salem Red Sox

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 21 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%20.4%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%6.8%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	4	3	6	24	8	3	2	75%	1.4	33.3%	12.5%	20.8%	8.3%	3.18	6.44	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	4	3	6	24	8	3	2	75%	1.4	33.3%	12.5%	20.8%	8.3%	3.18	6.45	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	10	36	163	34	25	7	62%	2.2	14.7%	18.6%	-3.9%	6.4%	5.25	7.72	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	10	36	163	34	25	7	62%	2.2	20.9%	15.3%	5.5%	4.3%	5.25	5.82	—
2023	20	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	25	0	42	199	45	36	2	0%	1.7	16.7%	21.3%	-4.6%	1.3%	5.14	5.11	—
2023	20	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	25	0	42	199	45	36	2	0%	1.7	22.6%	18.1%	4.5%	1.0%	5.14	4.15	—
2024	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	38	0	57	263	60	33	5	0%	1.5	16.9%	14.8%	2.1%	2.6%	4.71	5.00	—
2024	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	38	0	57	263	60	33	5	0%	1.5	16.9%	14.8%	2.1%	2.6%	4.71	5.00	—
2024	21	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	38	0	57	263	60	33	5	0%	1.5	22.8%	12.5%	10.3%	1.9%	4.71	3.87	—
2025	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	20	0	28	134	31	18	2	0%	1.4	17.1%	15.9%	1.3%	2.2%	5.08	4.86	—
2025	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	20	0	28	134	31	18	2	0%	1.4	17.1%	15.9%	1.3%	2.2%	5.08	4.86	—
2025	22	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	20	0	28	134	31	18	2	0%	1.4	23.1%	13.4%	9.7%	1.5%	5.08	3.74	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BOS	20	0	21	89	18	12	3	0%	1.1	20.4%	13.6%	6.8%	3.0%	5.10	5.10	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	25	0	26	109	23	13	3	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.2%	9.0%	3.0%	4.92	4.86	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	10	0	11	46	10	6	1	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.2%	9.0%	3.0%	4.92	4.86	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	47	10	6	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.2%	9.0%	3.0%	4.92	4.48	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	109	18	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.2%	9.0%	3.0%	4.92	4.48	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		103	13	169	783	133	136	25	13%	1.6	16.9%	17.4%	-0.4%	3.2%	4.94	5.61	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	15	200	925	157	161	29	13%	1.6	16.9%	17.4%	-0.4%	3.2%	4.94	5.61	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nathanael Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	20.4%	13.6%	3.0%	—	4.86	21.1%	9.0%	26	-0.24	—	—	—
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	90
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	87
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	87
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	86
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	85
Michael Bowden R 2011 · 4.93 FIP	24	SU	4.93	18.9%	12.2%	3.4%	.271	4.22	17.1%	8.1%	77	-0.71	3.21	269	85
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	85
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	85
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	84
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	84
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	84
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	84
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	84
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	84
Julio Mateo R 2002 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	16.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.277	4.23	17.5%	13.8%	232	-0.31	3.42	318	84
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	84
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	84
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	84
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	84