Juan Aparicio — OGILVIE

Juan AparicioSS ACL D-backs

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.8 · 2030

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .273 / .301

PA48

HR1

K%28

BB%7

MLB%0%

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.2	$1M	+$0.0M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	—	—	—
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$7M		$2M	-$4M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL D-backs 2	144	124	17	4	0	0	13	32	5	5	4	.137	.246	.169	.416	.032	.183	22	9	.200	11	-14	-1	+0	+2	+4	-1.0
2022	19	ROK	ACL D-backs Black	133	118	23	3	2	0	11	41	1	2	1	.195	.269	.254	.523	.059	.295	31	8	.231	35	-10	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.5
2023	20	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	139	127	23	2	0	1	8	26	4	2	1	.181	.252	.220	.472	.039	.220	19	6	.213	21	-12	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.7
2024	21	ROK	ACL D-backs	63	56	8	1	0	0	5	21	2	0	0	.143	.238	.161	.399	.018	.229	33	8	.172	-10	-8	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	ARI	48	44	10	2	0	1	3	14	1	1	0	.227	.292	.341	.633	.114	.285	29	6	.263	59	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB 10%	ARI	104	94	21	4	1	2	8	29	1	2	0	.223	.291	.351	.642	.128	.288	28	8	.279	71	-3	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2028	25	MLB 25%	ARI	221	199	44	8	1	5	18	60	2	3	1	.221	.292	.347	.639	.126	.290	27	8	.289	79	-5	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.4
2029	26	MLB 42%	ARI	305	274	62	11	2	7	25	82	3	4	1	.226	.298	.358	.656	.131	.291	27	8	.295	84	-6	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.7
2030	27	MLB 58%	ARI	352	316	72	13	2	9	29	94	4	5	1	.228	.301	.367	.668	.139	.291	27	8	.296	85	-6	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.8
2031	28	MLB 68%	ARI	381	342	77	14	2	9	32	103	4	5	1	.225	.299	.357	.656	.132	.291	27	8	.295	84	-7	+1	-1	+4	+11	0.8
2032	29	MLB 77%	ARI	391	351	78	14	2	9	33	107	4	4	0	.222	.296	.350	.647	.128	.290	27	8	.293	82	-8	+1	-1	+4	+11	0.7
2033	30	MLB 84%	ARI	396	356	78	14	2	9	33	109	4	3	0	.219	.293	.346	.638	.126	.288	28	8	.289	80	-9	+1	-2	+4	+11	0.5
2034	31	MLB 91%	ARI	390	350	76	13	2	9	33	109	4	1	0	.217	.292	.343	.635	.126	.287	28	8	.286	77	-10	+0	-3	+4	+11	0.2
2035	32	MLB	ARI	376	337	73	13	2	8	32	107	4	0	0	.217	.292	.338	.631	.122	.285	28	9	.281	73	-11	+0	-4	+4	+11	-0.0
2036	33	MLB	ARI	350	315	66	11	2	7	29	102	3	0	0	.210	.282	.324	.606	.114	.284	29	8	.276	69	-12	+0	-4	+4	+10	-0.3
2037	34	MLB	ARI	308	277	58	10	2	6	25	93	3	0	0	.209	.282	.325	.607	.116	.282	30	8	.269	64	-12	+0	-5	+3	+9	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4101	3680	786	137	22	82	337	1129	49	37	10	.214	.288	.330	.618	.116	.283	28	8	.277	70	-137	+3	-20	+44	+116	0.7
/ 162G	—			650	583	124	22	3	13	53	179	8	6	2	.213	.287	.328	.614	.115	.282	28	8	.277	70	-22	+0	-3	+7	+18	0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL D-backs 2	144	116	23	6	0	0	21	23	5	5	4	.198	.345	.250	.595	.052	.245	16	15	.288	78	-4	-1	—	—	+4	-0.0
2022	19	ROK	ACL D-backs Black	133	110	29	5	2	0	19	28	1	2	1	.264	.377	.345	.722	.082	.349	21	14	.327	109	+1	+0	—	—	+4	0.5
2023	20	ROK	ACL D-backs Red	139	121	29	3	0	1	14	18	4	2	1	.240	.338	.289	.627	.050	.275	13	10	.297	85	-2	+0	—	—	+4	0.2
2024	21	ROK	ACL D-backs	63	53	10	1	0	0	8	14	2	0	0	.189	.317	.208	.525	.019	.256	22	13	.262	58	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Aparicio (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	.207/.273/.301	.094	.285	1	1	28%	7%	59	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Eric Wagaman 2021 · A	23	38→48	42→50	41→45	36	.193/.236/.291	.098	.285	10	6	35%	5%	40	-2.4	.203/.263/.331	.128	.273	15	7	30%	7%	63	-0.8	.241/.289/.388	.147	.287	15	11	22%	6%	85	+0.5
✕Alexis Bastardo 2017 · A	23	42	35→40	50→55	39	.197/.252/.257	.060	.284	3	11	30%	5%	38	-2.6	.197/.244/.269	.072	.273	5	13	28%	5%	37	-2.6	.185/.221/.251	.067	.244	7	20	27%	3%	19	-1.5
✕Brooks Baldwin 2023 · A	22	41→51	36→55	50	39	.195/.246/.261	.066	.291	4	8	33%	6%	36	-2.7	.229/.280/.365	.136	.299	16	16	28%	6%	79	+0.3	.243/.294/.398	.155	.302	19	17	26%	6%	89	+0.7
✕Jai Miller 2007 · A	22	37→46	39→55	48→55	39	.178/.246/.260	.082	.291	7	16	39%	8%	37	-2.6	.210/.273/.338	.128	.319	13	15	36%	7%	69	-0.4	.217/.280/.369	.151	.315	17	14	35%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Elier Hernandez 2017 · A	22	42→49	38→50	44→50	34	.203/.237/.283	.081	.285	5	6	30%	3%	38	-2.6	.213/.250/.297	.084	.305	6	7	31%	4%	47	-1.9	.225/.274/.366	.141	.297	15	9	29%	5%	72	-0.1
✕Kyle Robinson 2012 · A	23	36	41→45	50→30	39	.181/.232/.287	.106	.253	8	5	31%	6%	38	-2.6	.203/.252/.294	.091	.296	5	5	31%	6%	47	-1.9	.210/.261/.311	.101	.313	5	1	33%	6%	55	-0.6
✕Ryan Aguilar 2019 · A	24	37→41	38→45	51→50	42	.180/.245/.263	.082	.274	6	6	34%	8%	37	-2.6	.186/.263/.281	.095	.309	10	9	39%	8%	50	-1.7	.182/.277/.297	.114	.301	14	12	40%	10%	58	-0.8
✕Matt Pita 2021 · A	24	37	36→50	49→55	36	.180/.231/.255	.075	.261	3	10	31%	4%	29	-3.2	.199/.258/.338	.139	.277	15	16	33%	5%	63	-0.8	.182/.243/.334	.152	.252	17	27	34%	4%	53	-0.5
✕Josh Lester 2017 · A	23	41→43	39→60	50→40	37	.197/.244/.283	.085	.290	7	7	33%	5%	41	-2.3	.211/.254/.340	.129	.275	14	3	28%	5%	61	-1.0	.203/.249/.394	.191	.250	26	4	31%	5%	71	-0.2
✕James Simmons 2008 · A	22	38	39→55	51→55	36	.179/.240/.272	.093	.300	6	11	40%	6%	37	-2.6	.189/.238/.281	.092	.321	7	16	41%	5%	38	-2.6	.201/.260/.367	.165	.357	23	18	47%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Tyler Dearden 2021 · A	23	39→34	40→50	49→30	31	.183/.230/.274	.091	.324	8	5	44%	5%	33	-2.9	.216/.289/.373	.157	.318	20	3	36%	8%	85	+0.7	.219/.296/.367	.149	.315	20	0	35%	9%	84	+0.4
✕Michael Suiter 2016 · A	24	40→37	38→45	49→50	38	.194/.244/.267	.073	.253	6	12	25%	4%	37	-2.6	.209/.263/.300	.091	.285	8	10	28%	5%	54	-1.4	.215/.275/.313	.098	.296	12	8	30%	6%	59	-0.4
✕Luis Tejada 2016 · A	23	44	38→45	49→50	38	.211/.249/.285	.074	.274	5	9	25%	4%	43	-2.2	.216/.266/.333	.117	.267	11	8	23%	5%	64	-0.8	.203/.257/.329	.126	.245	13	6	23%	6%	56	-0.7
✕Francisco Sosa 2013 · A	23	38→43	40→45	45→50	34	.187/.236/.280	.093	.301	8	9	39%	5%	37	-2.6	.206/.262/.322	.116	.305	12	13	34%	6%	59	-1.1	.196/.255/.313	.116	.286	13	15	34%	6%	52	-1.1
✕Trenton Brooks 2018 · A	23	41→50	37→50	44→45	43	.195/.248/.265	.069	.253	4	6	24%	6%	38	-2.6	.218/.273/.331	.113	.265	9	3	20%	6%	66	-0.6	.238/.324/.383	.144	.272	16	8	18%	10%	100	+1.2
✕Tim Ferguson 2012 · A	23	40→50	38→40	46→50	38	.194/.239/.264	.070	.276	6	10	31%	5%	33	-2.9	.217/.264/.297	.080	.279	6	11	23%	6%	53	-1.5	.230/.277/.308	.078	.282	6	12	20%	6%	57	-0.6
✕Joe Mahoney 2009 · A	22	38→48	42→50	49→50	35	.192/.232/.295	.103	.271	9	5	32%	4%	40	-2.4	.227/.263/.349	.122	.307	12	12	29%	4%	66	-0.6	.249/.287/.387	.137	.315	14	8	25%	4%	86	+0.6
✕Josh Richmond 2013 · A	24	34→39	41→45	48→45	36	.175/.223/.276	.101	.248	9	8	33%	5%	31	-3.0	.196/.248/.320	.124	.276	12	8	32%	5%	53	-1.5	.200/.255/.339	.139	.274	14	7	31%	5%	58	-0.7
✕Dustin Peterson 2016 · A	21	41→49	39→50	44→45	38	.200/.239/.280	.080	.272	7	4	29%	4%	38	-2.6	.223/.268/.322	.099	.292	9	4	25%	5%	62	-0.9	.235/.279/.354	.119	.290	15	2	24%	5%	71	-0.2
✕Franklin Guzman 2015 · A	23	39	39→40	51→50	39	.194/.239/.279	.085	.266	6	11	29%	5%	38	-2.6	.199/.243/.314	.115	.287	13	15	34%	5%	49	-1.8	.175/.208/.337	.161	.236	27	14	39%	4%	40	-0.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)