Jesus Ordonez
C Spokane Indians| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A+/ACOL | 183 | .222/.296/.296 | 1 | 0 | 33 | — | .193/.251/.253 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+COL | 169 | .270/.353/.372 | 3 | 4 | 63 | — | .230/.299/.303 |
| 2025 | 25 | A+COL | 91 | .145/.211/.229 | 1 | 2 | -12 | — | .118/.167/.188 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBCOL | 200 | .207/.272/.310 | 3 | 3 | 65 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ26% MLB | 28 | MLBCOL | 19 | .218/.282/.334 | 0 | 0 | 65 | -0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rockies | — | 150 | 128 | 47 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 367 | 441 | 477 | 918 | 109 | 388 | 10 | 8 | 399 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | — | 54 | 46 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 304 | 396 | 522 | 918 | 217 | 371 | 20 | 7 | 397 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | ACL Rockies | — | 136 | 116 | 30 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 259 | 358 | 457 | 815 | 198 | 263 | 11 | 10 | 358 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | — | 62 | 56 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 283 | 357 | 640 | 125 | 316 | 27 | 6 | 278 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 121 | 106 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 303 | 264 | 567 | 47 | 267 | 17 | 9 | 263 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | — | 169 | 148 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 270 | 353 | 372 | 725 | 101 | 311 | 15 | 7 | 329 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Spokane Indians | — | 91 | 83 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 145 | 211 | 229 | 440 | 84 | 177 | 22 | 5 | 203 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 150 | 132 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 242 | 310 | 311 | 621 | 68 | 241 | 12 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 54 | 48 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 208 | 283 | 375 | 658 | 167 | 269 | 30 | 4 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 136 | 121 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 190 | 269 | 331 | 599 | 140 | 200 | 16 | 7 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 62 | 57 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 193 | 233 | 298 | 532 | 105 | 268 | 37 | 5 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 121 | 109 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 193 | 261 | 229 | 490 | 37 | 253 | 24 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 169 | 152 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 230 | 299 | 303 | 602 | 72 | 277 | 21 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 91 | 85 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 118 | 167 | 188 | 355 | 71 | 152 | 30 | 3 | 151 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 150 | 132 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 242 | 310 | 311 | 621 | 68 | 263 | 12 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Rockies | — | 150 | 128 | 47 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 367 | 441 | 477 | 918 | 109 | 388 | 10 | 8 | 399 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 54 | 48 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 208 | 283 | 375 | 658 | 167 | 281 | 30 | 4 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK RAW | ACL Rockies | — | 54 | 46 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 304 | 396 | 522 | 918 | 217 | 371 | 20 | 7 | 397 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 136 | 121 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 190 | 269 | 331 | 599 | 140 | 204 | 16 | 7 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK RAW | ACL Rockies | — | 136 | 116 | 30 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 259 | 358 | 457 | 815 | 198 | 263 | 11 | 10 | 358 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 183 | 167 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 52 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 240 | 246 | 486 | 60 | 261 | 28 | 5 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 183 | 162 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 296 | 296 | 592 | 74 | 282 | 21 | 8 | 268 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 169 | 152 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 230 | 299 | 303 | 602 | 72 | 287 | 21 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ RAW | Spokane Indians | — | 169 | 148 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 270 | 353 | 372 | 725 | 101 | 311 | 15 | 7 | 329 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 91 | 85 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 118 | 167 | 188 | 355 | 71 | 158 | 30 | 3 | 151 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ RAW | Spokane Indians | — | 91 | 83 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 145 | 211 | 229 | 440 | 84 | 177 | 22 | 5 | 203 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 150 | 136 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 235 | 310 | 301 | 612 | 66 | 241 | 12 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 54 | 49 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 204 | 283 | 367 | 650 | 163 | 269 | 30 | 4 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 136 | 122 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 189 | 269 | 328 | 597 | 139 | 200 | 16 | 7 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 183 | 169 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 52 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 240 | 243 | 483 | 59 | 258 | 28 | 5 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 169 | 152 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 230 | 299 | 303 | 602 | 72 | 277 | 21 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 91 | 86 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 116 | 167 | 186 | 353 | 70 | 152 | 30 | 3 | 151 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 169 | 152 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 230 | 299 | 303 | 602 | 72 | 277 | 21 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 91 | 86 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 116 | 167 | 186 | 353 | 70 | 152 | 30 | 3 | 151 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | COL | 0% | 200 | 182 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 58 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 207 | 272 | 310 | 582 | 103 | 280 | 29 | 6 | 264 | 65 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | COL | 26% | 72 | 66 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 272 | 310 | 583 | 104 | 280 | 29 | 7 | 264 | 65 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | COL | 26% | 19 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 282 | 334 | 616 | 116 | 293 | 26 | 5 | 277 | 65 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 19 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 263 | 278 | 541 | 56 | 308 | 26 | 5 | 277 | 50 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 616 | 137 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 171 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 263 | 278 | 541 | 55 | 308 | 26 | 5 | 277 | 50 | -27 | +0 | -6 | +12 | +14 | -0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 902 | 814 | 163 | 35 | 2 | 11 | 48 | 205 | 25 | 10 | 12 | 200 | 266 | 289 | 555 | 88 | 250 | 23 | 5 | 243 | 50 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 117 | 25 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 148 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 199 | 266 | 286 | 552 | 87 | 249 | 23 | 5 | 243 | 50 | -27 | +2 | -4 | +12 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 A+Spokane Indians · 91 PAwOBA .193 → .151 (−42)K% 22.0% → 29.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.98% | ÷1.005 | ×1.350 | — | — | 29.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.40% | ÷1.030 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 2.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.20% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.968 | 1.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.068 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 9.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.35% | ÷1.002 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 5.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.59% | ÷0.999 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.968 | 1.28% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 114, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .193 → .151; ISO .084 → .066; BABIP .177 → .152. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Spokane Indians · 169 PAwOBA .320 → .262 (−59)K% 15.4% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.38% | ÷0.996 | ×1.350 | — | — | 20.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.10% | ÷1.106 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 4.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.14% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 3.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.41% | ÷0.999 | ×0.910 | ×1.035 | ×0.978 | 23.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.92% | ÷1.098 | ×0.830 | ×1.035 | ×0.978 | 3.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.907 | ×0.820 | ×1.035 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.46% | ÷1.086 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 1.84% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 100, 2B 120, 3B 81, K 99, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .320 → .262; ISO .101 → .076; BABIP .311 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFresno Grizzlies · 121 PAwOBA .259 → .223 (−36)K% 17.4% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.36% | ÷0.987 | ×1.360 | — | — | 23.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷0.952 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 6.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.65% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.18% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.980 | 20.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.946 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.980 | 5.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.186 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 88, K 97, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .259 → .223; ISO .047 → .041; BABIP .267 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Spokane Indians · 62 PAwOBA .271 → .204 (−66)K% 27.4% → 37.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.42% | ÷0.983 | ×1.350 | — | — | 37.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.45% | ÷1.075 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 4.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.51% | ÷1.019 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.988 | 18.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.26% | ÷1.026 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 8.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.936 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.047 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 2.01% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 87, K 97, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .271 → .204; ISO .125 → .092; BABIP .316 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Rockies · 136 PAwOBA .354 → .264 (−90)K% 11.0% → 16.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.03% | ÷0.980 | ×1.440 | — | — | 16.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.29% | ÷0.981 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 6.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 2.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.85% | ÷1.035 | ×0.820 | ×1.036 | ×0.965 | 11.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.89% | ÷0.979 | ×0.720 | ×1.036 | ×0.965 | 8.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.036 | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.96% | ÷0.918 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 3.25% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 107, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 96, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .354 → .264; ISO .198 → .157; BABIP .263 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Rockies · 54 PAwOBA .394 → .268 (−126)K% 20.4% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.37% | ÷0.997 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.41% | ÷1.061 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 4.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.56% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 3.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.033 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 15.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.009 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 9.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 1.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.029 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 2.11% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 107, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 99, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .394 → .268; ISO .217 → .145; BABIP .371 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 DSLDSL Rockies · 150 PAwOBA .401 → .263 (−138)K% 10.0% → 12.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 5.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.33% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 2.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 21.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 2.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 0.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.985 | 0.82% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .401 → .263; ISO .109 → .061; BABIP .388 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).