Koen Moreno — OGILVIE

Koen Moreno P South Bend Cubs

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 21 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%19.1%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%5.5%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	28	153	39	40	5	83%	2.3	18.2%	31.5%	-13.3%	4.6%	9.96	8.06	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	10	28	153	39	40	5	83%	2.3	25.5%	26.1%	-0.7%	3.3%	9.96	6.92	—
2023	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	26	6	71	312	79	57	5	23%	2.7	18.7%	21.6%	-2.8%	2.2%	2.90	5.44	—
2023	21	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	26	6	71	312	79	57	5	23%	2.7	25.3%	18.3%	7.1%	1.6%	2.90	4.19	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	12	0	23	117	19	24	1	0%	1.9	12.5%	23.6%	-11.1%	1.2%	6.17	5.68	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	12	0	23	117	19	24	1	0%	1.9	12.5%	23.6%	-11.1%	1.2%	6.17	5.68	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	12	0	23	117	19	24	1	0%	1.9	16.2%	20.5%	-4.3%	0.9%	6.17	5.11	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	4	1	12	50	15	8	0	25%	3.0	23.1%	18.4%	4.7%	0.0%	2.25	3.48	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	4	1	12	50	15	8	0	25%	3.0	23.1%	18.4%	4.7%	0.0%	2.25	3.48	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	4	1	12	50	15	8	0	25%	3.0	30.0%	16.0%	14.0%	0.0%	2.25	2.60	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	57	253	56	31	10	71%	3.4	17.5%	13.1%	4.4%	4.7%	5.18	5.88	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	57	253	56	31	10	71%	3.4	17.5%	13.1%	4.4%	4.7%	5.18	5.88	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	12	57	253	56	31	10	71%	3.4	22.1%	12.3%	9.9%	4.0%	5.18	5.04	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CHC	20	0	21	89	17	12	3	0%	1.1	19.1%	13.6%	5.5%	3.2%	5.33	5.33	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	49	0	52	218	44	29	7	0%	1.1	20.0%	13.1%	6.9%	3.2%	5.21	5.19	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	48	0	51	214	43	28	7	0%	1.1	20.2%	12.9%	7.3%	3.2%	5.15	5.16	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	21	0	22	93	19	12	3	0%	1.0	20.0%	13.1%	6.9%	3.2%	5.21	5.19	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	30	0	32	135	27	17	4	0%	1.1	20.2%	12.9%	7.3%	3.2%	5.15	5.16	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	0	54	229	46	30	7	0%	1.0	20.1%	13.0%	7.2%	3.2%	5.17	4.79	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	170	111	26	0%	1.1	20.1%	13.0%	7.2%	3.2%	5.17	4.79	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		71	29	192	885	157	185	27	41%	2.7	17.7%	20.9%	-3.2%	3.1%	4.97	5.94	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	30	200	922	163	193	28	41%	2.7	17.7%	20.9%	-3.2%	3.1%	4.97	5.94	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Koen Moreno (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	19.1%	13.6%	3.2%	—	5.18	20.1%	7.1%	102	-0.15	—	—	—
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	85
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	81
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	81
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	80
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	80
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	79
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	78
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	78
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	76
Sean Douglass R 2004 · 4.94 FIP	25	SW	4.94	20.1%	13.4%	3.4%	.274	4.82	14.7%	6.4%	87	-0.12	4.81	200	74
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	74
Jimmy Joyce R 2024 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	17.8%	14.2%	1.7%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	259	74
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	74
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	74
Brandon Morrow R 2009 · 4.89 FIP	25	SW	4.89	20.1%	13.7%	3.2%	.284	3.37	25.5%	16.4%	450	-1.52	2.67	922	73
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	73
Lucas Harrell R 2010 · 4.65 FIP	25	SW	4.65	12.6%	13.4%	1.7%	.372	4.24	15.1%	5.1%	365	-0.41	2.81	541	73
Michael Murray R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.2%	12.9%	2.0%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	116	73
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	73
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	41	19.9%	13.1%	1.23	5.21
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57