Zach Arnold — OGILVIE

Zach ArnoldSS Jersey Shore BlueClaws

Age 26 R/R 6'2" / 205 lbs A+ HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .244 / .297

PA1

HR0

K%29

BB%4

BABIP264

ISO98

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	22	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	94	82	24	2	1	2	10	19	1	8	0	293	372	415	787	122	361	20	11	354	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	72	67	10	2	0	0	2	24	3	2	1	149	208	179	387	30	233	33	3	186	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	282	246	63	5	3	2	27	64	4	3	1	256	339	325	665	69	332	23	10	302	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	29	27	4	1	0	0	0	12	0	0	0	148	148	185	333	37	235	41	0	138	-22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	305	277	56	8	0	9	20	81	7	6	1	202	273	329	602	126	250	27	7	273	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	94	86	22	2	1	2	7	25	1	8	0	256	319	372	691	116	336	27	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	72	68	9	2	0	0	1	30	3	2	1	132	181	162	342	29	237	42	1	158	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	282	256	53	4	3	2	17	82	4	3	1	207	267	270	537	62	275	29	6	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	29	27	4	1	0	0	0	14	0	0	0	148	148	185	333	37	229	48	0	135	-22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	305	286	44	5	0	7	11	106	7	6	1	154	204	245	449	91	213	35	4	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	94	86	22	2	1	2	7	25	1	8	0	256	319	372	691	116	339	27	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	—	94	82	24	2	1	2	10	19	1	8	0	293	372	415	787	122	361	20	11	354	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	354	324	61	5	3	2	18	112	7	5	2	188	246	241	487	52	276	32	5	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	354	313	73	7	3	2	29	88	7	5	2	233	312	294	606	61	313	25	8	278	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	334	313	48	6	0	7	11	120	7	6	1	153	199	240	439	86	217	36	3	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	334	304	60	9	0	9	20	93	7	6	1	197	263	316	579	118	249	28	6	262	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	94	86	22	2	1	2	7	25	1	8	0	256	319	372	691	116	336	27	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	354	326	61	5	3	2	18	112	7	5	2	187	246	239	486	52	267	32	5	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	334	313	48	6	0	7	11	120	7	6	1	153	199	240	439	86	214	36	3	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	354	326	61	5	3	2	18	112	7	5	2	187	246	239	486	52	267	32	5	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	334	313	48	6	0	7	11	120	7	6	1	153	199	240	439	86	214	36	3	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	PHI	0%	380	356	71	13	2	6	16	109	5	6	2	197	243	293	536	96	264	29	4	241	49	-23	+0	+0	+4	+8	-0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	PHI	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	198	244	297	540	98	264	0	0	243	49	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	PHI	26%	269	251	49	9	1	4	12	77	4	4	1	199	246	296	542	97	265	29	4	244	51	-16	+0	+0	+3	+6	-0.7
2028	27	MLB CTX	PHI	26%	70	66	12	2	0	1	3	20	1	1	0	200	247	300	547	100	265	29	4	246	51	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	70	66	12	2	0	1	3	20	1	1	0	182	229	258	486	76	244	29	4	246	39	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	613	112	19	0	9	28	186	9	9	0	183	229	258	487	75	246	29	4	246	39	-38	+2	+0	+7	+14	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	1301	1208	227	31	6	19	59	406	22	27	5	188	239	271	510	83	263	31	5	227	39	-31	+1	+0	+6	+11	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	604	112	15	3	9	29	203	11	13	2	185	236	265	501	79	260	31	4	227	39	-38	+1	+0	+7	+14	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Zach Arnold (OGILVIE)	26	30	40	45	30	196/241/290	95	264	4	4	29%	4%	49	-1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕McCarthy Tatum 2022 · AA	26	33→25	41→50	45→50	35	170/234/264	94	274	10	6	40%	6%	41	-3.0	198/254/313	115	283	11	10	33%	5%	60	-1.6	196/248/320	125	268	11	11	30%	4%	56	-0.6
✕Connor Justus 2021 · AA	26	37	38→40	43→45	43	178/254/252	74	250	5	8	29%	7%	46	-2.6	193/256/269	76	288	5	7	32%	7%	50	-2.3	166/232/216	50	256	3	3	33%	6%	27	-2.1
✕Arden Pabst 2021 · AA	26	38	44→45	43→30	36	197/233/315	118	265	12	5	31%	4%	51	-2.2	181/226/303	122	274	15	5	39%	5%	47	-2.6	129/179/229	99	194	15	0	42%	5%	10	-1.6
✕Caleb Hamilton 2021 · AAA	26	40	41→45	45	43	196/256/296	101	271	9	9	30%	7%	56	-1.9	181/266/305	124	275	14	6	37%	10%	63	-1.4	140/232/254	115	204	16	3	39%	10%	37	-1.0
✕Mike Salvatore 2023 · A	26	32	42→40	49→45	42	169/233/265	96	237	10	5	32%	7%	40	-3.0	193/263/284	91	262	8	8	27%	8%	56	-1.9	178/258/254	76	233	6	7	25%	9%	45	-1.0
✕Madison Stokes 2022 · AA	26	39→36	42→45	41→40	37	196/244/302	106	285	10	4	34%	5%	53	-2.1	186/258/289	103	297	9	9	37%	8%	56	-1.9	161/248/256	95	264	7	9	38%	9%	42	-1.5
✕Max Burt 2022 · AAA	25	41→35	42→45	49→55	37	205/252/307	102	288	10	9	32%	5%	57	-1.8	192/247/306	114	275	13	21	34%	6%	55	-1.9	169/229/255	86	251	9	26	34%	5%	35	-1.6
✕Tim Roberson 2015 · A	26	39→35	41→40	46→30	36	198/236/294	97	278	9	2	32%	5%	47	-2.5	221/257/312	91	310	7	3	30%	4%	59	-1.6	241/275/329	88	330	6	1	28%	4%	65	-0.5
✕Jordan Betts 2018 · AA	26	36→28	44→45	46→40	35	183/230/295	112	279	11	5	38%	6%	46	-2.6	201/249/309	108	295	11	5	34%	5%	57	-1.8	188/232/279	91	267	11	0	33%	5%	41	-1.8
✕Jay Brossman 2011 · AA	26	37→36	45	44→45	40	191/243/313	122	240	12	7	26%	5%	55	-1.9	207/255/324	117	279	12	11	29%	6%	62	-1.4	185/222/306	120	244	15	17	31%	4%	42	-0.5
✕Barrett Kleinknecht 2014 · AA	26	40→35	43→45	44→45	42	203/246/311	108	241	11	5	21%	5%	56	-1.9	207/244/318	111	245	11	4	20%	4%	56	-1.9	197/229/301	104	230	11	1	20%	3%	44	-1.6
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA	25	39→34	43→45	48→45	42	194/261/307	112	266	11	9	30%	7%	61	-1.5	204/263/312	108	293	10	7	32%	7%	63	-1.4	195/242/309	114	278	11	0	33%	5%	53	-0.6
✕Chris Roller 2023 · AA	26	38	39→45	50→55	41	184/249/269	85	263	6	14	31%	6%	47	-2.5	191/270/312	121	306	13	16	39%	8%	66	-1.1	174/262/298	124	289	14	19	41%	9%	58	-1.1
✕Ali Solis 2015 · AAA	27	40	39→45	45→30	33	199/228/283	84	274	7	5	30%	3%	41	-3.0	178/210/253	75	248	6	4	30%	3%	28	-3.9	187/222/301	114	244	14	2	30%	4%	42	-1.1
✕Mark Thomas 2014 · AA	26	38→41	42→45	48→45	38	193/239/299	106	261	9	6	29%	5%	50	-2.3	174/225/294	120	256	12	5	35%	5%	45	-2.7	143/193/276	133	198	15	3	36%	5%	26	-1.5
✕Jesus Valdez 2024 · AA	26	37	47→45	49→50	31	198/225/332	134	276	16	9	34%	3%	53	-2.1	205/253/310	105	291	11	6	32%	5%	58	-1.7	193/252/279	86	271	10	3	31%	6%	48	-0.8
✕Jake Wald 2007 · AA	26	40→42	42→45	45→50	39	201/253/303	102	275	10	9	30%	5%	56	-1.9	202/262/299	97	284	7	10	30%	6%	59	-1.7	196/261/291	95	278	7	10	30%	6%	54	-1.3
✕Cale Iorg 2012 · AAA	26	36→41	41→45	46→50	33	183/217/277	94	261	9	13	34%	3%	36	-3.3	179/219/272	93	271	8	13	36%	4%	36	-3.3	123/157/185	63	197	3	8	38%	3%	-10	-1.9
✕Seaver Whalen 2021 · A	26	40	40→45	48→50	40	195/263/286	90	264	8	6	28%	5%	57	-1.8	205/273/326	121	263	12	10	26%	4%	71	-0.8	170/246/302	132	208	14	10	25%	3%	55	-0.7
✕José Briceño 2018 · AA	25	35	41→45	47→45	39	178/211/270	92	218	9	7	24%	4%	32	-3.6	207/249/345	138	254	18	9	26%	5%	65	-1.2	199/238/342	143	239	20	4	27%	4%	60	-0.4