Alexander Johnson

Alexander Johnson P Daytona Tortugas

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 243 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 17 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 116

ERA5.24

FIP5.24

K%21.9%

BB%15.7%

K-BB%6.3%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	3	0	4	18	8	3	0	0%	1.3	44.4%	16.7%	27.8%	0.0%	4.50	1.46	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	3	0	4	18	8	3	0	0%	1.3	44.4%	16.7%	27.8%	0.0%	4.50	1.35	—
2022	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	9	4	20	100	23	20	1	44%	2.3	17.0%	23.6%	-6.6%	1.5%	7.08	5.46	—
2022	22	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	9	4	20	100	23	20	1	44%	2.3	23.0%	20.0%	3.0%	1.0%	7.08	4.43	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	31	138	39	28	2	0%	1.7	19.7%	24.6%	-4.9%	1.8%	4.60	5.57	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	31	138	39	28	2	0%	1.7	28.3%	20.3%	8.0%	1.4%	4.60	4.12	—
2024	24	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	23	0	29	138	26	34	1	0%	1.2	13.9%	29.1%	-15.1%	0.9%	6.59	6.08	—
2024	24	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	23	0	29	138	26	34	1	0%	1.2	13.9%	29.1%	-15.1%	0.9%	6.59	6.08	—
2024	24	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	23	0	29	138	26	34	1	0%	1.2	18.8%	24.6%	-5.8%	0.7%	6.59	5.30	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CIN	16	0	17	72	16	11	2	0%	1.1	21.9%	15.7%	6.3%	3.0%	5.24	5.24	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	19	0	20	84	19	13	3	0%	1.1	21.9%	15.2%	6.8%	3.1%	5.20	5.24	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	7	0	7	30	6	4	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	15.2%	6.8%	3.1%	5.20	5.24	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	5	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	15.2%	6.8%	3.1%	5.20	4.86	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	138	28	0%	1.1	21.9%	15.2%	6.8%	3.1%	5.20	4.86	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		53	4	84	394	71	101	5	8%	1.6	18.1%	25.6%	-7.4%	1.3%	5.87	5.53	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	9	200	934	169	239	12	8%	1.6	18.1%	25.6%	-7.4%	1.3%	5.87	5.53	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexander Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.24	21.9%	15.7%	3.0%	—	5.24	21.9%	6.8%	20	+0.00	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	85
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	83
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	20.1%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.04	2.92	140	81
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	81
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	81
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	81
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	81
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	80
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	80
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	80
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	80
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	80
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	79
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	79
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	79
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	79
LJ McDonough R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	22.6%	16.7%	2.3%	.385	4.85	20.0%	2.8%	90	+0.31	4.16	127	79
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	79
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	79
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	79