Connor Fenlong

P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	ROKKC	3	1	4	6.75	3.35	21.1%	15.8%	—	K 21.1% · BB 15.8% · FIP 3.32
2024	24	MIX2 levels	32	0	48	3.38	3.41	17.9%	10.1%	—	K 13.4% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.16
2026	26	MIX2 levels	11	9	54	2.15	3.01	29.5%	6.9%	—	K 22.4% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.14
2027PROJ	27	MLBDET	35	0	37	4.43	4.43	21.6%	8.7%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	28	MLBDET	12	0	13	4.47	4.50	21.7%	8.9%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsColeman Huntley III (age 28) · Edwin Quirarte (age 28) · Taylor Grover (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%21.6%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%13.0%

Proj IP37

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	3	1	4	19	4	3	0	33%	1.3	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	0.0%	6.75	3.32	—
2023	23	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	3	1	4	19	4	3	0	33%	1.3	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	0.0%	6.75	3.35	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	48	207	37	21	2	0%	1.5	13.4%	11.8%	1.6%	1.3%	3.38	4.16	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	48	207	37	21	2	0%	1.5	13.4%	11.8%	1.6%	1.3%	3.38	4.16	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	48	207	37	21	2	0%	1.5	17.9%	10.1%	7.7%	1.0%	3.38	3.41	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	9	54	217	64	15	6	82%	4.9	22.4%	8.0%	14.3%	3.5%	2.15	4.14	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	9	54	217	64	15	6	82%	4.9	22.4%	8.0%	14.3%	3.5%	2.15	4.14	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	9	54	217	64	15	6	82%	4.9	29.5%	6.9%	22.6%	2.8%	2.15	3.01	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	DET	35	0	37	156	34	14	5	0%	1.1	21.6%	8.7%	13.0%	3.1%	4.43	4.43	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	DET	35	0	36	153	33	14	5	0%	1.0	21.7%	8.9%	12.8%	3.2%	4.47	4.50	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	DET	12	0	13	55	12	5	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	8.9%	12.8%	3.2%	4.47	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	13	56	12	5	2	0%	1.0	21.7%	8.9%	12.8%	3.2%	4.47	4.12	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	75	30	0%	1.1	21.7%	8.9%	12.8%	3.2%	4.47	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		46	10	106	443	80	45	10	22%	2.3	18.2%	10.2%	8.0%	2.3%	2.88	4.11	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	19	200	833	151	85	19	22%	2.3	18.2%	10.2%	8.0%	2.3%	2.88	4.11	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Fenlong (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	21.6%	8.7%	3.1%	—	4.50	21.7%	12.8%	36	+0.07	—	—	—
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	82
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	80
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	78
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	78
Connor Schultz R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	25	SU	3.88	19.7%	5.3%	3.2%	.283	4.02	18.8%	10.4%	156	+0.14	3.53	203	78
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	77
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	77
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	77
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	77
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	75
DJ Baxendale R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	27	SW	3.49	18.1%	6.0%	2.1%	.355	5.71	20.0%	8.3%	49	+2.22	2.88	426	75
Wil Jensen R 2024 · 3.48 FIP	26	SW	3.48	22.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	368	75
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	75
TJ Shook R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	26	SW	4.15	23.7%	8.7%	3.5%	.317	3.92	20.0%	11.1%	107	-0.23	3.35	452	74
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	74
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	73
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	73
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	73
Nick Morreale R 2024 · 3.96 FIP	27	SW	3.96	19.0%	8.5%	2.5%	.271	3.72	11.7%	-1.1%	14	-0.24	2.97	280	73
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	37	21.7%	8.8%	1.20	4.45
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*