Connor Fenlong — OGILVIE

Connor Fenlong P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%18.1%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%7.1%

ROS IP29

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	3	1	4	19	4	3	0	33%	1.3	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	0.0%	6.75	3.32	—
2023	23	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	3	1	4	19	4	3	0	33%	1.3	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	0.0%	6.75	3.32	—
2023	23	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	3	1	4	19	4	3	0	33%	1.3	21.1%	15.8%	5.3%	0.0%	6.75	3.35	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	48	207	37	21	2	0%	1.5	13.4%	11.8%	1.6%	1.3%	3.38	4.16	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	48	207	37	21	2	0%	1.5	13.4%	11.8%	1.6%	1.3%	3.38	4.16	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	48	207	37	21	2	0%	1.5	17.9%	10.1%	7.7%	1.0%	3.38	3.41	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	11	9	54	217	64	15	6	82%	4.9	22.4%	8.0%	14.3%	3.5%	2.15	4.14	—
YTD	26	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	11	9	54	217	64	15	6	82%	4.9	22.4%	8.0%	14.3%	3.5%	2.15	4.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A RAW	DET	4	2	17	71	23	7	1	50%	4.3	32.4%	9.9%	22.5%	1.4%	1.56	2.39	—
2026	26	A+ RAW	DET	7	7	37	146	41	8	5	100%	5.3	28.1%	5.5%	22.6%	3.4%	2.43	3.30	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	DET	50	0	52	221	41	24	7	0%	1.0	18.6%	10.9%	7.7%	3.0%	4.90	4.92	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	DET	48	0	51	214	40	23	7	0%	1.1	18.8%	10.9%	7.9%	3.1%	4.91	4.95	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	DET	18	0	19	80	15	9	2	0%	1.1	18.6%	10.9%	7.7%	3.0%	4.90	4.92	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	DET	29	0	30	127	24	14	4	0%	1.0	18.8%	10.9%	7.9%	3.1%	4.91	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		47	0	49	208	39	23	6	0%	1.0	18.7%	10.9%	7.8%	3.0%	4.91	4.56	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	159	94	24	0%	1.1	18.7%	10.9%	7.8%	3.0%	4.91	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		46	10	106	443	80	45	10	22%	2.3	18.2%	10.2%	8.0%	2.3%	2.88	4.11	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	19	200	833	151	85	19	22%	2.3	18.2%	10.2%	8.0%	2.3%	2.88	4.11	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Fenlong (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	18.1%	11.0%	2.9%	—	4.93	18.7%	7.8%	103	-0.01	—	—	—
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	81
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	80
Phil Klein R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	18.1%	11.0%	1.6%	.280	3.10	24.5%	17.9%	97	-0.76	3.10	178	78
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	78
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	78
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	78
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	78
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	77
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	77
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	77
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	77
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	77
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	76
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	76
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	76
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	76
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	75
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	75
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	75
Sam Lewis R 2018 · 4.33 FIP	26	SW	4.33	16.7%	9.6%	2.6%	.323	3.41	21.0%	10.2%	48	-0.92	2.21	224	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	44	18.6%	10.9%	1.15	4.91
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43