Connor Fenlong
P
Lakeland Flying Tigers
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
A
2026 ROS PROJECTION13 act + 29 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 101
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
K%21.9%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP29
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | ACL Royals | 3 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 33% | 1.3 | 21.1% | 15.8% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 3.32 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | ACL Royals | 3 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 33% | 1.3 | 21.1% | 15.8% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 3.35 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 48 | 207 | 37 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 13.4% | 11.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 3.38 | 4.19 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 48 | 207 | 37 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 1.0% | 3.38 | 3.41 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 3 | 2 | 13 | 55 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 67% | 4.4 | 25.6% | 8.6% | 17.0% | 2.4% | 2.02 | 3.33 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | DET | 4 | 4 | 29 | 121 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 7.2 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | DET | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.9% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.44 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | DET | — | — | 42 | 176 | 45 | 16 | 5 | — | — | 25.8% | 8.8% | 17.0% | 2.6% | 3.67 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | DET | 27 | 0 | 28 | 119 | 26 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | DET | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 10 | 43 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.08 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 78 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 38 | 3 | 65 | 281 | 46 | 32 | 4 | 8% | 1.7 | 16.3% | 11.5% | 4.9% | 1.4% | 3.31 | 3.96 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 116 | 9 | 200 | 860 | 140 | 99 | 12 | 8% | 1.7 | 16.3% | 11.5% | 4.9% | 1.4% | 3.31 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Fenlong (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.46 | 22.0% | 12.4% | 28 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 87 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 83 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 83 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 83 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .318 | 3.31 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.47 | 2.46 | 362 | 82 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 82 |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.1% | .292 | 5.11 | 20.4% | 15.3% | 41 | +1.57 | 3.08 | 210 | 82 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 81 |
| Carter Rustad R 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.84 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 101 | 81 |
| Madison Younginer IV R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.24 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .370 | 4.72 | 14.0% | -5.3% | 27 | +0.48 | 3.04 | 219 | 81 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .310 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | +0.04 | 3.42 | 161 | 81 |
| Spencer Stockton R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .276 | 5.42 | 19.0% | 5.8% | 63 | +1.23 | 1.93 | 233 | 80 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 80 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.15 | 3.43 | 187 | 80 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 80 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.81 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .316 | 6.96 | 13.7% | 6.1% | 26 | +3.15 | 3.81 | 233 | 80 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | .282 | 3.23 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -0.88 | 1.79 | 647 | 80 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 80 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 80 |
| Cale Coshow R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 3.61 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 63 | -0.90 | 3.16 | 377 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 28 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 1.13 | 4.44 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |