Caswell Smith prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Caswell Smith P Visalia Rawhide

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 9 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%23.0%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	28	125	38	17	1	0%	1.4	19.5%	15.5%	3.9%	1.7%	4.18	4.36	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	28	125	38	17	1	0%	1.4	19.5%	15.5%	3.9%	1.7%	4.18	4.36	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	28	125	38	17	1	0%	1.4	30.4%	13.6%	16.8%	0.8%	4.18	2.67	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	1	11	55	14	13	0	10%	1.1	25.5%	23.6%	1.8%	0.0%	10.12	3.94	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	1	11	55	14	13	0	10%	1.1	25.5%	23.6%	1.8%	0.0%	10.12	3.94	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	1	11	55	14	13	0	10%	1.1	25.5%	23.6%	1.8%	0.0%	10.12	4.13	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.0%	10.5%	12.5%	3.0%	4.51	4.51	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	ARI	19	0	20	84	20	9	3	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.4%	12.9%	3.0%	4.48	4.47	+0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	ARI	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	10.4%	12.9%	3.0%	4.48	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.4%	12.9%	3.0%	4.48	4.09	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	23	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.4%	12.9%	3.0%	4.48	4.09	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		30	1	39	180	38	32	2	3%	1.3	21.3%	18.0%	3.3%	1.2%	5.82	4.23	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		155	5	200	931	198	168	11	3%	1.3	21.3%	18.0%	3.3%	1.2%	5.82	4.23	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caswell Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	23.0%	10.5%	3.0%	—	4.47	23.3%	12.9%	20	-0.04	—	—	—
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	90
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	88
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	88
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	86
Shawn Tolleson R 2012 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	24.4%	11.9%	2.4%	.265	3.47	24.4%	18.5%	144	-0.39	3.05	218	86
Michael Wuertz R 2004 · 4.46 FIP	25	SU	4.46	24.2%	12.9%	3.2%	.243	3.39	26.1%	16.6%	189	-1.07	2.27	414	86
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	85
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	85
Chaz Roe R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	25.3%	10.5%	3.1%	.259	2.81	24.6%	16.2%	133	-1.21	1.72	279	85
Blake Goldsberry R 2022 · 3.43 FIP	25	SU	3.43	23.6%	8.3%	2.3%	.257	5.26	23.6%	12.0%	44	+1.83	3.43	117	85
Fernando Salas R 2010 · 4.27 FIP	25	SU	4.27	21.8%	9.8%	3.2%	.276	3.29	23.5%	16.8%	162	-0.98	2.60	539	85
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.35	22.4%	13.7%	185	+0.62	3.73	223	84
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	84
Brad Boxberger R 2013 · 4.40 FIP	25	SU	4.40	25.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.296	3.54	32.3%	22.2%	152	-0.86	2.63	478	84
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	84
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	84
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	84
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	84
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	84
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	84