Cole Stupp — OGILVIE

Cole Stupp P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 17 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%22.8%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	10	8	40	187	39	21	2	80%	4.0	14.2%	14.0%	0.1%	1.6%	5.13	4.57	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	10	8	40	187	39	21	2	80%	4.0	20.9%	11.2%	9.6%	1.1%	5.13	3.37	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	2	28	127	34	17	4	12%	1.7	18.9%	16.1%	2.8%	3.7%	3.49	5.58	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	2	28	127	34	17	4	12%	1.7	18.9%	16.1%	2.8%	3.7%	3.49	5.58	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	2	28	127	34	17	4	12%	1.7	26.8%	13.4%	13.4%	3.1%	3.49	4.34	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	DET	16	0	17	72	16	8	2	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.3%	11.5%	3.0%	4.64	4.64	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	DET	19	0	20	84	19	9	3	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	3.1%	4.63	4.65	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	DET	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	3.1%	4.63	4.65	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	3	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	3.1%	4.63	4.27	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	83	28	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	3.1%	4.63	4.27	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		27	10	69	314	51	47	8	37%	2.5	16.1%	14.9%	1.2%	2.5%	4.46	4.98	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	29	200	915	147	136	23	37%	2.5	16.1%	14.9%	1.2%	2.5%	4.46	4.98	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Stupp (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	22.8%	11.3%	3.0%	—	4.65	22.9%	11.7%	20	+0.01	—	—	—
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	77
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	75
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	75
Jose Samayoa R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	26	SW	3.44	16.6%	9.9%	0.9%	.286	3.79	17.3%	9.4%	226	+0.35	3.44	262	75
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	73
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	73
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	72
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	72
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	72
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	72
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	72
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	72
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	318	72
Orlando Rodriguez R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	26	SW	4.40	23.0%	11.9%	3.1%	.278	4.67	13.7%	3.1%	41	+0.27	4.40	119	72
Dylan King R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	25	SW	3.78	26.7%	9.8%	3.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	121	72
John Ely R 2011 · 4.38 FIP	25	SW	4.38	23.2%	10.7%	3.4%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	113	72
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	71
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	71
David Pauley R 2008 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	16.4%	7.5%	3.0%	.429	4.30	13.8%	7.3%	165	+0.00	3.51	210	71
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	71