Francisco Urbaez

2B Louisville Bats

Age 29 R/R 5'9" / 195 lbs AAA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	27	AAACIN	411	.314/.385/.464	4	5	99	—	.267/.321/.389
2025	27	INTLToros del Este	45	.300/.378/.300	0	1	102	—
2026	28	AAACIN	473	.255/.333/.372	7	3	61	—	.219/.277/.306
2027PROJ10% MLB	29	MLBCIN	25	.256/.313/.367	0	0	91	0.0
2028PROJ33% MLB	30	MLBCIN	106	.253/.309/.362	1	1	89	0.1
2029PROJ46% MLB	31	MLBCIN	151	.248/.305/.354	2	0	85	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

K%87

Z-Con%69

Whiff%67

Chase%66

Max EV51

Speed45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsLuis Maza (age 29) · Yonathan Daza (age 29) · Jamie Ritchie (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†91

AVG/OBP/SLG.256 / .313 / .367

PA25

HR0

K%16

BB%8

BABIP298

ISO43

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT60

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	23	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	55	52	12	4	0	0	3	8	0	0	0	231	273	308	580	77	273	15	5	263	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	48	40	8	2	1	0	6	5	2	0	0	200	333	300	633	100	229	10	12	299	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	285	246	82	16	1	4	32	44	6	3	1	333	423	455	878	122	394	15	11	394	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	138	114	31	1	0	0	17	18	4	2	2	272	385	281	666	9	323	13	12	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	187	164	46	11	1	3	21	31	1	2	1	280	366	415	780	134	328	17	11	350	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	38	34	9	1	1	0	4	7	0	0	0	265	342	353	695	88	333	18	11	316	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	293	250	66	11	0	6	35	55	4	4	3	264	363	380	743	116	311	19	12	336	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	16	13	0	0	0	0	2	6	0	1	0		133		133			38	12	87	-55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	100	85	26	7	0	2	12	19	0	4	0	306	392	459	851	153	369	19	12	369	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	315	270	71	12	2	7	31	42	7	4	6	263	353	400	753	137	282	13	10	334	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	28	22	4	0	0	0	5	6	1	0	0	182	357	182	539		250	21	18	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	411	360	113	32	5	4	38	40	5	5	4	314	385	464	849	150	339	10	9	372	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	INTL	Toros del Este	—	45	40	12	0	0	0	4	2	1	1	0	300	378	300	678		316	4	9	320	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	473	419	107	26	1	7	43	67	6	3	1	255	333	372	705	117	287	14	9	317	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	55	53	12	4	0	0	2	10	0	0	0	226	255	302	556	75	269	18	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	48	42	8	2	1	0	4	6	2	0	0	190	292	286	577	95	206	12	8	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	285	256	68	13	1	3	22	60	6	3	1	266	338	359	697	94	333	21	8	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	187	171	40	9	1	2	14	37	1	2	1	234	296	333	629	99	288	20	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	38	35	9	1	1	0	3	8	0	0	0	257	316	343	659	86	314	21	8	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	293	263	61	10	0	5	22	70	4	4	3	232	301	327	628	95	283	24	8	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	100	89	24	6	0	1	8	23	0	4	0	270	330	371	701	101	343	23	8	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	315	282	64	9	2	5	20	51	7	4	6	227	294	326	621	99	247	16	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	411	375	100	27	5	3	25	49	5	5	4	267	321	389	710	123	293	12	6	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	473	434	95	21	1	5	29	80	6	3	1	219	277	306	584	88	252	17	6	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	4 teams	—	526	471	118	24	3	5	39	103	12	5	3	251	324	346	670	96	311	20	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	4 teams	—	526	452	133	23	2	4	58	75	12	5	3	294	389	381	769	86	346	14	11	351	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	187	171	40	9	1	2	14	37	1	2	1	234	296	333	629	99	286	20	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	187	164	46	11	1	3	21	31	1	2	1	280	366	415	780	134	328	17	11	350	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	3 teams	—	347	312	72	11	1	5	26	82	4	5	3	231	298	321	619	90	291	24	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA RAW	3 teams	—	347	297	75	12	1	6	41	68	4	5	3	253	351	360	711	108	303	20	12	322	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	3 teams	—	443	396	95	16	2	7	30	79	8	8	6	240	306	343	650	104	278	18	7	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA RAW	3 teams	—	443	377	101	19	2	9	48	67	8	8	6	268	362	401	762	133	299	15	11	339	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	456	416	112	30	6	4	28	55	6	6	4	269	324	399	723	130	298	12	6	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	456	400	125	32	5	4	42	42	6	6	4	312	384	448	832	135	336	9	9	367	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	473	434	95	21	1	5	29	80	6	3	1	219	277	306	584	88	255	17	6	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	—	473	419	107	26	1	7	43	67	6	3	1	255	333	372	705	117	287	14	9	317	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	4 teams	—	526	470	118	24	3	5	39	103	12	5	3	251	324	347	671	96	308	20	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	187	170	40	9	1	2	14	37	1	2	1	235	296	335	631	100	288	20	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	3 teams	—	347	314	72	11	1	5	26	82	4	5	3	229	298	318	617	89	287	24	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	3 teams	—	443	402	95	16	2	7	30	79	8	8	6	236	306	338	645	102	270	18	7	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	456	419	112	30	6	4	28	55	6	6	4	267	324	396	721	129	293	12	6	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	473	435	95	21	1	5	29	80	6	3	1	218	277	306	583	87	252	17	6	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	26	AA MLE	3 teams	—	443	402	95	16	2	7	30	79	8	8	6	236	306	338	645	102	270	18	7	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	456	419	112	30	6	4	28	55	6	6	4	267	324	396	721	129	293	12	6	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	473	435	95	21	1	5	29	80	6	3	1	218	277	306	583	87	252	17	6	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CIN	10%	380	348	88	20	2	4	24	63	5	4	2	255	312	364	676	109	297	17	6	303	91	-4	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	29	MLB CTX	CIN	10%	25	23	5	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	256	313	367	680	111	298	16	8	304	91	-0	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CIN	33%	323	295	75	17	2	4	21	55	4	2	1	252	309	359	667	107	296	17	7	299	89	-4	+0	-2	+1	+7	0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	CIN	46%	329	301	75	17	2	4	21	58	4	0	1	247	304	351	655	104	293	18	6	294	85	-6	-0	-3	+1	+7	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	CIN	33%	106	97	24	5	1	1	7	18	1	1	0	253	309	362	671	109	296	17	7	301	89	-1	+0	-1	+0	+2	0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	CIN	46%	151	138	35	8	1	2	10	27	2	0	1	248	305	354	659	106	293	18	7	296	85	-3	-0	-1	+1	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	257	235	59	13	2	3	17	45	3	1	1	251	310	362	672	111	296	18	7	298	82	-4	-0	-2	+1	+6	0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	594	150	33	5	8	43	114	8	3	3	253	312	365	677	113	298	18	7	298	82	-10	-1	-5	+2	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	3334	3025	741	158	20	39	224	590	48	34	21	245	307	349	656	104	290	18	7	289	82	-13	-0	-5	+3	+20	0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	145	31	4	8	44	115	9	7	4	246	308	353	660	107	290	18	7	289	82	-9	-0	-4	+2	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kyle Farmerlast yr '25 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,367 PA	3.6	2,367	63	16	247	306	388	+17	+23	8.9	9.0
/162	664	18	4	+4.7	+6.4	2.5	pk7: 9
#2Eric Sogardlast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,484 PA	3.7	2,484	26	46	246	312	337	+10	+22	6.0	6.6
/162	664	7	12	+2.7	+5.9	1.6	pk7: 7
#3Ehire Adrianzalast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,519 PA	2.3	1,519	20	19	240	310	353	+10	+13	4.0	4.4
/162	664	9	8	+4.2	+5.5	1.8	pk7: 5
#4Ken Aspromonte'57-'63 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,691 PA	2.5	1,691	19	7	245*	323*	352*	+6	+5	3.2	3.2
/162	664	7	3	+2.4	+2.0	1.3	pk7: 3
#5Scott Leius'90-'99 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,727 PA	2.6	1,727	28	16	237*	306*	358*	+5	+5	1.5	2.1
/162	664	11	6	+2.0	+1.9	0.6	pk7: 3
#6John Kerr'23-'34 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,631 PA	2.5	1,631	6	26	238*	297*	338*	+7	+3	0.7	1.1
/162	664	2	11	+2.9	+1.3	0.3	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	282	3	1	251	304	357	+1	+1	0.4	0.4
/162	664	7	2	+2.4	+2.4	0.8	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Francisco Urbaez (OGILVIE)	29	60	45	45	45	253/309/361	108	297	3	3	17%	6%	91	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Maza 2009 · MLB	29	55→49	40→45	44→40	47	264/315/360	96	310	7	4	17%	6%	92	+0.7	242/288/332	90	284	6	4	16%	5%	75	-0.5	231/271/309	78	269	5	1	16%	4%	61	-0.7
✕Yonathan Daza 2023 · MLB	29	57→61	38→45	40→50	49	269/321/350	82	317	4	4	16%	7%	92	+0.7	252/303/351	99	298	7	8	17%	6%	86	+0.3	251/291/330	78	301	3	10	17%	4%	75	-0.2
✕Jamie Ritchie 2022 · AAA	29	53	41→40	44→45	51	251/327/349	99	309	7	4	20%	9%	95	+0.9	228/309/304	76	292	5	6	22%	10%	78	-0.3	204/297/239	35	268	1	3	22%	11%	56	-0.5
✕Elias Díaz 2020 · MLB	29	52→59	42→50	44→45	48	253/303/358	105	292	10	3	17%	6%	87	+0.4	238/296/380	142	270	16	3	18%	7%	91	+0.6	236/292/382	147	273	17	0	20%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Daniel Mayora 2014 · AAA	29	53→57	39→45	46→50	45	254/304/345	91	304	6	10	18%	5%	84	+0.2	244/282/335	91	291	7	6	18%	5%	74	-0.6	277/318/377	99	334	9	6	19%	5%	95	+0.6
✕Brian Hernandez 2019 · AAA	30	53→59	42→45	42→40	44	256/299/358	102	309	9	5	20%	5%	86	+0.3	263/304/379	116	297	11	5	15%	5%	93	+0.8	282/318/393	111	313	10	1	13%	5%	97	+0.9
✕David Urias 2014 · AAA	29	54	40	47→45	43	261/296/350	89	306	8	8	18%	4%	82	+0.0	243/269/319	76	278	5	6	14%	3%	65	-1.2	244/263/303	59	276	3	3	12%	2%	54	-1.0
✕David Freitas 2018 · MLB	29	50→60	41→45	48→40	45	241/289/346	105	288	8	4	19%	6%	79	-0.2	263/321/385	122	320	11	3	20%	7%	101	+1.4	265/325/383	118	323	11	0	20%	7%	99	+0.6
✕Vimael Machín 2023 · MLB	29	51→54	41→45	46→50	52	242/309/346	104	287	7	3	18%	8%	87	+0.4	231/290/339	108	277	10	8	19%	7%	78	-0.3	229/280/342	113	271	12	10	20%	6%	73	-0.4
✕Alberto Carreon 2017 · AAA	29	50→58	41→45	45→50	44	238/291/340	102	299	7	7	22%	6%	78	-0.3	244/287/328	84	293	6	10	18%	4%	74	-0.5	247/291/318	71	293	5	9	17%	3%	72	-0.6
✕Yunesky Sanchez 2013 · AAA	29	50→60	42→40	44→45	44	243/282/344	101	282	9	8	18%	5%	76	-0.4	265/299/355	90	301	8	8	15%	4%	84	+0.2	273/307/349	76	308	7	7	13%	4%	85	+0.1
✕Phil Gosselin 2017 · MLB	28	57→64	41→45	50→45	45	271/316/379	108	324	8	9	19%	6%	97	+1.1	221/270/315	94	281	7	5	23%	6%	65	-1.2	254/316/375	121	316	12	4	22%	8%	97	+0.5
✕Johnny Giavotella 2016 · MLB	29	54→61	41→45	49→50	50	256/305/362	106	283	7	10	12%	6%	88	+0.5	253/297/363	110	281	8	8	13%	6%	86	+0.3	260/300/372	112	285	8	6	12%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Jesus Merchan 2010 · AAA	29	58→64	39→45	48→50	45	277/318/366	89	309	6	6	12%	4%	95	+0.9	258/297/337	79	291	4	4	13%	5%	80	-0.2	271/306/342	71	300	3	2	10%	4%	80	-0.0
✕Joshua Rodriguez 2014 · AAA	29	50→53	42→50	43→50	47	239/299/347	108	300	9	6	23%	8%	83	+0.1	223/286/340	117	292	11	8	26%	8%	77	-0.3	211/278/330	119	277	13	8	27%	8%	70	-0.6
✕Ivan Cervantes 2008 · AAA	28	56→59	38→40	43→45	46	267/307/347	80	301	6	5	13%	5%	86	+0.3	249/285/335	86	282	8	4	14%	4%	75	-0.5	246/282/322	76	280	6	1	14%	4%	67	-0.6
✕Jordy Mercer 2016 · MLB	29	50→57	43→50	45	44	246/285/356	111	281	10	6	17%	5%	80	-0.1	247/300/374	127	280	13	3	16%	6%	90	+0.6	247/303/379	132	280	13	1	16%	7%	93	+0.7
✕David Adams 2016 · MLB	29	50→55	41→45	47→40	49	243/306/345	102	287	9	4	18%	7%	86	+0.3	230/295/330	100	292	8	8	22%	8%	78	-0.3	213/280/300	87	286	4	6	25%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Santiago Espinal 2024 · MLB	29	54→55	41→45	43→50	51	258/316/360	102	291	8	8	14%	7%	93	+0.8	241/293/333	92	272	8	11	14%	7%	78	-0.3	238/288/316	78	269	7	12	14%	6%	71	-0.4
✕Humberto Castro 2019 · AAA	28	52	40	46→45	47	249/311/338	89	282	7	9	14%	5%	86	+0.3	231/285/308	77	268	5	9	15%	5%	70	-0.9	230/279/273	43	267	0	5	13%	3%	57	-1.0

Francisco Urbaez

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps