Arij Fransen

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	ACIN	24	16	81	6.09	3.62	22.5%	9.5%	—	K 16.6% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.54
2024	23	MIX2 levels	31	0	68	4.10	3.32	17.9%	12.1%	—	K 13.7% · BB 13.8% · FIP 3.86
2025	24	AACIN	30	0	55	6.34	4.26	18.5%	15.5%	—	K 15.0% · BB 17.0% · FIP 4.72
2027PROJ	26	MLBCIN	67	0	70	6.06	6.06	13.8%	18.0%	-1.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBCIN	25	0	26	5.90	5.92	14.8%	17.2%	-0.4
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBCIN	38	0	40	5.84	5.88	15.3%	16.8%	-0.6

Next 3 projected WAR -2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control25Command30

CompsTom Reisinger (age 23) · Drew Conover (age 23) · Cooper Adams (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 132

ERA6.06

FIP6.06

K%13.8%

BB%18.0%

K-BB%-4.2%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	9	5	33	135	43	3	3	56%	3.7	21.7%	2.8%	18.9%	3.0%	3.78	3.29	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	9	5	33	135	43	3	3	56%	3.7	31.9%	2.2%	29.6%	2.2%	3.78	1.96	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	13	65	306	46	30	13	59%	2.9	10.8%	11.9%	-1.1%	6.2%	6.96	7.11	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	13	65	306	46	30	13	59%	2.9	15.0%	9.8%	5.2%	4.2%	6.96	5.68	—
2023	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	24	16	81	378	85	36	8	67%	3.4	16.6%	11.2%	5.4%	2.6%	6.09	4.54	—
2023	22	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	24	16	81	378	85	36	8	67%	3.4	22.5%	9.5%	13.0%	2.1%	6.09	3.62	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	68	313	56	38	1	0%	2.2	13.7%	13.8%	-0.1%	0.3%	4.10	3.86	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	68	313	56	38	1	0%	2.2	13.7%	13.8%	-0.1%	0.3%	4.10	3.86	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	68	313	56	38	1	0%	2.2	17.9%	12.1%	5.8%	0.3%	4.10	3.32	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	30	0	55	265	49	41	3	0%	1.8	15.0%	17.0%	-2.0%	1.3%	6.34	4.72	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	30	0	55	265	49	41	3	0%	1.8	15.0%	17.0%	-2.0%	1.3%	6.34	4.72	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	30	0	55	265	49	41	3	0%	1.8	18.5%	15.5%	3.0%	1.1%	6.34	4.26	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CIN	67	0	70	296	41	53	8	0%	1.0	13.8%	18.0%	-4.2%	2.7%	6.06	6.06	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	66	0	69	291	43	50	8	0%	1.0	14.8%	17.2%	-2.4%	2.8%	5.90	5.92	-1.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	64	0	67	282	43	47	8	0%	1.0	15.3%	16.8%	-1.5%	2.9%	5.84	5.88	-0.9
2030	29	MLB MLE	CIN	61	0	64	270	42	45	8	0%	1.0	15.5%	16.6%	-1.1%	3.0%	5.87	5.94	-0.9
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	25	0	26	110	16	19	3	0%	1.0	14.8%	17.2%	-2.4%	2.8%	5.90	5.92	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	38	0	40	169	26	28	5	0%	1.1	15.3%	16.8%	-1.5%	2.9%	5.84	5.88	-0.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	CIN	43	0	45	190	29	32	6	0%	1.0	15.5%	16.6%	-1.1%	3.0%	5.87	5.94	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	468	71	79	14	0%	1.0	15.2%	16.8%	-1.5%	2.9%	5.87	5.53	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	128	142	25	0%	1.1	15.2%	16.8%	-1.5%	2.9%	5.87	5.53	-2.3
Career	—	MLE		116	34	303	1397	208	171	37	29%	2.6	14.9%	12.2%	2.6%	2.7%	5.62	4.86	-3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	22	200	923	137	113	25	29%	2.6	14.9%	12.2%	2.6%	2.7%	5.62	4.86	-3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Arij Fransen (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.06	13.8%	18.0%	2.7%	—	5.91	15.2%	-1.7%	200	-0.15	—	—	—
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	76
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	76
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	76
Blake Hickman R 2018 · 6.57 FIP	24	SW	6.57	12.9%	17.8%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	156	75
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	74
Jesús Reyes R 2019 · 5.71 FIP	26	SU	5.71	15.9%	15.7%	3.6%	.283	5.11	17.5%	5.6%	118	-0.60	3.85	554	74
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	74
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	73
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	73
Ricky Salinas R 2022 · 5.79 FIP	26	SU	5.79	14.3%	15.1%	3.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	274	73
Vanny Valenzuela R 2015 · 6.82 FIP	27	SW	6.82	12.4%	14.8%	5.3%	.314	4.29	15.8%	4.6%	70	-2.53	3.26	118	73
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	72
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	72
Jake Eddington R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	23	SW	5.02	18.8%	24.1%	0.8%	.316	4.83	16.6%	-1.5%	105	-0.19	4.70	135	71
Hunter Dollander R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	26	SU	6.77	17.6%	18.3%	5.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	106	71
Michael Kelly R 2018 · 6.36 FIP	25	SW	6.36	14.6%	24.2%	2.6%	.299	3.51	24.8%	15.9%	45	-2.85	2.70	666	71
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	71
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	71
David Whitehead R 2016 · 6.00 FIP	24	SW	6.00	10.7%	19.2%	2.5%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	217	71
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	14.8%	17.2%	1.09	5.92
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*