Spencer Horwitz

1B Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 29 L/R 5'10" / 204 lbs MLB HR -15%K -5% Svc 1.884 · Ctrl thru 2031

Overview

MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	26	MLBTOR	381	.265/.361/.433	12	0	122	0.7
2025	27	MLBPIT	411	.272/.354/.434	11	0	124	0.9
2026	28	MLBPIT	451	.244/.348/.364	10	1	107	0.6
2027PROJ	29	MLBPIT	477	.248/.343/.390	12	2	111	1.2
2028PROJ92% MLB	30	MLBPIT	428	.244/.339/.380	10	0	107	0.7
2029PROJ92% MLB	31	MLBPIT	414	.239/.333/.368	9	0	102	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.884First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$1M2030Ext$1M2031Ext$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Whiff%90

Chase%90

xwOBA64

Barrel%43

Avg EV28

Bat Spd15

Form.234/.324/.340 ▼▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .249/.342/.395

CompsRobert Fick (age 29) · Doug Mientkiewicz (age 29) · Ike Davis (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 90111vR 119

AVG/OBP/SLG.248 / .343 / .390

PA477

HR12

K%17

BB%11

BABIP281

ISO143

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

904.9%

xAVG

380.242

POWER50

Barrel%

437.2

Avg EV

2887.4

Bat Spd

1567.6

EYE55

Chase%

9018.3%

SPEED35

Sprint

1024.7

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%20%▼▼21% over 89 PA (60d) · proj 17%

BB%11%·10% over 89 PA (60d) · proj 11%

ISO.106▼▼.025 over 79 AB (60d) · proj .146

HR/BB2.5%▼0.0% over 61 BBE (60d) · proj 3.8%

BABIP.280·.279 over 61 BIP (60d) · proj .280

SLASH.234/.324/.340▼▼proj .249/.342/.395

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 860 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

132

728

—

wRC+

133

▶▶R

wOBA

256

365

▶▶R

ISO

070

180

▶▶R

BABIP

239

318

▶▶R

20.5%

17.3%

▶▶R

BB%

10.6%

10.9%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.884 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$14M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	16	16	6	2	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	375	375	875	1.250	500	333	12	0	534	172	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	469	389	113	28	1	10	70	66	5	4	5	290	405	445	850	154	324	14	15	379	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	74	64	24	4	0	1	9	11	1	4	0	375	459	484	944	109	442	15	12	425	174	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	202	171	42	14	0	2	30	41	1	4	1	246	361	363	724	117	312	20	15	333	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	281	232	69	19	1	10	43	54	4	3	1	297	416	517	933	220	347	19	15	409	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	44	39	10	2	0	1	4	12	1	0	0	256	341	385	726	128	346	27	9	330	109	+0	+0	+1	-9	+1	-0.8
2023	25	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	484	392	132	30	1	10	78	72	8	9	2	337	456	495	951	158	386	15	16	421	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	381	328	87	19	0	12	42	70	7	0	0	265	361	433	794	168	300	18	11	353	122	+10	+0	-0	-11	+8	0.7
2024	26	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	259	212	71	22	2	4	44	41	3	3	3	335	456	514	970	179	401	16	17	431	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	411	364	99	26	0	11	44	73	2	0	1	272	354	434	788	162	313	18	11	352	124	+12	-0	-3	-8	+9	0.9
2025	27	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	33	31	10	2	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	323	344	484	828	161	375	21	3	354	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AA	Altoona Curve	—	18	16	2	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	125	222	188	410	62	143	11	11	199	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	451	385	94	14	1	10	54	73	7	1	0	244	348	364	711	119	274	16	12	323	107	+4	+0	+0	-8	+10	0.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1287	1116	290	61	1	34	144	228	17	1	1	260	353	408	761	148	296	18	11	341	117	+26	-0	-2	-37	+28	1.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	16	16	6	2	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	375	375	875	1.250	500	287	12	0	423	172	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	469	407	105	25	1	9	52	90	5	4	5	258	349	391	740	133	302	19	11	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	202	180	43	13	0	2	21	48	1	4	1	239	322	344	666	106	311	24	10	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	281	243	65	16	1	8	32	65	4	3	1	267	362	440	802	173	327	23	11	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	44	39	10	2	0	1	4	12	1	0	0	256	341	385	726	128	346	27	9	329	109	+0	+0	+1	-9	+1	-0.8
2023	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	484	416	121	25	1	8	54	89	8	9	2	291	383	413	796	123	340	18	11	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	381	330	87	19	0	12	40	70	7	0	0	264	355	430	786	167	300	18	10	349	122	+10	+0	-0	-11	+8	0.7
2024	26	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	259	226	68	20	2	3	30	49	3	3	3	301	390	447	837	146	370	19	12	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	411	365	99	25	0	12	43	73	2	0	1	271	351	438	790	167	313	18	10	352	124	+12	-0	-3	-8	+9	0.9
2025	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	33	31	9	2	0	1	1	9	0	0	0	290	312	452	764	161	332	27	3	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	18	17	2	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	118	167	176	343	59	123	17	6	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	451	385	94	13	1	11	54	73	7	1	0	244	348	369	716	125	274	16	12	326	107	+4	+0	+0	-8	+10	0.6
2021	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	559	488	127	31	1	12	60	107	6	8	5	260	348	402	750	141	307	19	11	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	559	469	143	34	1	13	79	79	6	8	5	305	412	465	876	160	340	14	14	390	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	483	423	107	29	1	9	53	113	5	7	2	253	343	390	733	137	323	23	11	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	483	403	111	33	1	12	73	95	5	7	2	275	393	452	845	176	332	20	15	378	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	528	455	131	27	1	9	58	101	9	9	2	288	379	411	790	123	348	19	11	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	528	431	142	32	1	11	82	84	9	9	2	329	446	485	931	155	383	16	16	413	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	640	556	154	39	2	15	70	119	10	3	3	277	368	435	803	158	326	19	11	354	126	+20	-1	-0	-11	+14	2.2
2024	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	640	540	158	41	2	16	86	111	10	3	3	293	399	465	864	172	341	17	13	385	126	+20	-1	-0	-11	+14	2.2
2025	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	462	413	110	27	0	13	45	84	2	0	1	266	341	426	767	160	305	18	10	340	116	+9	-0	-3	-8	+10	0.7
2025	27	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	462	411	111	29	0	12	47	82	2	0	1	270	348	428	776	158	310	18	10	346	116	+9	-0	-3	-8	+10	0.7
2026	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	451	385	94	13	1	11	54	73	7	1	0	244	348	369	716	125	271	16	12	326	107	+4	+0	+0	-8	+10	0.6
2026	28	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	451	385	94	14	1	10	54	73	7	1	0	244	348	364	711	119	274	16	12	323	107	+4	+0	+0	-8	+10	0.6
2021	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	559	488	127	31	1	12	60	107	6	8	5	260	348	402	750	141	302	19	11	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	483	422	107	29	1	9	53	113	5	7	2	254	343	391	734	137	320	23	11	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	528	456	131	27	1	9	58	101	9	9	2	287	379	410	789	123	341	19	11	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	640	555	154	39	2	15	70	119	10	3	3	277	368	436	804	159	328	19	11	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	462	412	110	27	0	13	45	84	2	0	1	267	341	427	768	160	307	18	10	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	451	387	94	13	1	11	54	73	7	1	0	243	348	367	714	124	274	16	12	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	640	555	154	39	2	15	70	119	10	3	3	277	368	436	804	159	328	19	11	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	462	412	110	27	0	13	45	84	2	0	1	267	341	427	768	160	307	18	10	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	451	387	94	13	1	11	54	73	7	1	0	243	348	367	714	124	274	16	12	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	29	MLB MLE	PIT	100%	477	414	103	20	1	13	54	82	6	2	1	249	344	396	740	146	280	17	11	332	111	+6	+0	+4	-9	+10	1.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	29	MLB CTX	PIT	100%	477	414	103	21	1	12	54	82	6	2	1	248	343	390	733	141	281	17	11	330	111	+6	+0	+4	-9	+10	1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	PIT	92%	465	404	99	19	1	12	52	82	6	0	0	245	340	386	726	140	277	18	11	327	107	+4	+0	+2	-8	+10	0.8
2029	31	MLB MLE	PIT	92%	450	392	94	18	1	11	50	81	5	0	0	240	334	373	707	134	273	18	11	320	102	+1	+0	+1	-8	+10	0.4
2028	30	MLB CTX	PIT	92%	428	372	91	18	1	10	48	75	5	0	0	244	339	380	719	136	278	18	11	325	107	+4	+0	+2	-8	+9	0.7
2029	31	MLB CTX	PIT	92%	414	360	86	17	1	9	46	74	5	0	0	239	333	368	701	129	274	18	11	317	102	+1	+0	+1	-7	+9	0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2129	1848	467	96	3	53	238	377	27	1	1	253	346	394	740	141	289	18	11	333	113	+31	-0	+0	-52	+46	2.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	564	142	29	1	16	73	115	8	0	0	252	346	392	738	140	288	18	11	333	113	+10	-0	+0	-16	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	4515	3930	1019	223	9	105	496	842	56	30	14	259	351	401	751	141	303	19	11	335	113	+38	-0	+4	-62	+58	3.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	566	146	32	1	15	71	121	8	4	2	258	348	398	746	140	302	19	11	335	113	+9	-0	+1	-15	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Doug Mientkiewiczlast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,401 PA	5.1	3,401	64	12	276	364	414	-47	-13	11.9	12.2
/162	664	12	2	-9.1	-2.6	2.3	pk7: 13
#2Lee Thomas'61-'68 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,730 PA	5.6	3,730	106	25	256*	329*	421*	-51	-9	6.1	6.6
/162	664	19	4	-9.1	-1.6	1.1	pk7: 7
#3Brian Daubach'98-'05 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,303 PA	3.5	2,303	93	5	248*	330*	460*	-42	+2	6.4	6.5
/162	664	27	1	-12.1	+0.5	1.8	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.9	2,562	67	3	253	344	398	-46	-9	5.8	5.8
/162	664	17	1	-11.9	-2.4	1.5	pk7: 6
#4Beau Bell'35-'41 * career totals — 7 seasons, 3,023 PA	4.6	3,023	46	11	266*	326*	422*	-35	-19	4.8	4.8
/162	664	10	2	-7.6	-4.3	1.1	pk7: 5
#5Garrett Cooperlast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,846 PA	2.8	1,846	57	1	264	333	429	-31	-18	3.3	3.3
/162	664	21	0	-11.2	-6.5	1.2	pk7: 3
#6Gaby Sanchezlast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,240 PA	3.4	2,240	59	12	254	332	411	-40	-26	2.2	2.2
/162	664	17	4	-11.9	-7.8	0.6	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Spencer Horwitz (OGILVIE)	29	55	50	35	55	247/341/392	145	280	13	2	17%	11%	111	+1.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Robert Fick 2003 · MLB	29	52→54	52→55	37→40	51	265/326/436	171	285	19	2	15%	8%	114	+2.4	252/317/396	144	270	15	3	13%	8%	102	+1.5	247/317/376	130	263	13	1	12%	9%	98	+0.7
●Doug Mientkiewicz 2003 · MLB	29	56→61	46→50	35→40	59	272/357/413	141	299	13	3	14%	11%	120	+2.8	262/346/401	139	285	12	4	12%	11%	114	+2.3	257/341/394	138	277	12	3	12%	10%	111	+1.6
✕Ike Davis 2016 · MLB	29	46→55	47→60	38→40	57	228/317/369	140	270	14	3	21%	12%	96	+1.0	213/277/348	135	287	15	4	30%	8%	76	-0.4	196/262/318	121	264	16	0	31%	8%	62	-0.7
✕Ross Gload 2005 · MLB	29	57	50→55	36→40	52	286/344/442	156	315	17	4	15%	8%	122	+3.0	287/327/457	170	313	18	6	14%	5%	120	+2.8	294/327/462	169	316	17	6	13%	4%	121	+1.3
●Raul Lopez 2008 · AAA	29	54→60	45→50	37→40	52	266/322/388	122	292	12	4	14%	8%	101	+1.4	258/314/389	131	286	14	5	15%	8%	99	+1.2	264/323/397	132	290	15	3	14%	8%	104	+0.8
✕Luis Valbuena 2015 · MLB	29	46→56	51→60	36→50	57	236/323/405	169	270	17	3	20%	11%	106	+1.8	233/320/434	201	265	26	3	22%	11%	112	+2.2	222/313/433	211	248	29	1	24%	11%	111	+1.5
✕Clint Robinson 2014 · AAA	29	49→58	46→55	42→40	51	244/310/377	132	285	13	3	19%	8%	95	+0.9	245/314/386	141	289	15	2	20%	9%	99	+1.2	248/321/388	140	288	15	0	19%	9%	100	+0.8
●Jesse Winker 2024 · MLB	30	48→58	48→55	37→45	62	239/348/377	138	280	16	2	20%	13%	109	+2.0	246/343/392	146	302	15	12	22%	12%	111	+2.1	257/361/409	152	310	17	17	21%	12%	122	+2.5
●Dan Johnson 2008 · MLB	28	48→53	52→60	40→30	61	245/338/414	169	260	19	2	15%	12%	114	+2.3	246/338/443	197	266	26	2	18%	12%	121	+2.9	229/320/416	187	247	26	0	19%	11%	107	+1.6
✕Daryle Ward 2003 · MLB	28	52→55	52→60	37→30	46	264/308/436	172	294	20	3	18%	6%	108	+1.9	246/293/398	152	269	17	3	16%	6%	93	+0.8	255/308/437	182	267	22	0	14%	6%	109	+1.0
✕Brian Buscher 2010 · MLB	29	51→57	44→45	38→45	53	250/323/363	114	287	12	3	18%	9%	97	+1.1	231/297/354	123	255	12	6	14%	8%	84	+0.2	226/275/353	127	226	11	0	6%	6%	77	-0.1
✕Rangel Ravelo 2020 · MLB	28	50→58	48→50	40→45	48	249/314/393	143	291	16	2	20%	7%	100	+1.3	260/330/428	168	294	20	6	18%	8%	114	+2.4	299/389/453	154	334	18	0	15%	11%	141	+1.3
✕Chris Parmelee 2017 · MLB	29	46→53	49→55	41→45	46	235/288/381	146	278	18	4	23%	7%	88	+0.4	204/274/351	147	272	18	4	31%	9%	76	-0.4	168/249/314	146	228	20	0	35%	10%	58	-0.8
✕Ben Gamel 2022 · MLB	30	51→61	47→50	38→50	53	245/334/390	145	326	14	6	27%	11%	107	+1.8	236/322/377	141	305	14	7	25%	11%	99	+1.3	230/321/364	134	298	13	6	25%	11%	96	+0.6
✕Hyun Soo Kim 2017 · MLB	29	58	44→45	39→30	57	280/358/404	124	318	11	5	15%	10%	118	+2.7	248/322/353	105	298	9	5	18%	9%	94	+0.9	227/301/287	60	284	2	0	19%	9%	71	-0.3
●Casey McGehee 2012 · MLB	29	51→61	49→55	35→40	49	254/307/405	151	281	17	2	17%	7%	100	+1.3	246/308/368	122	286	12	4	18%	8%	92	+0.7	255/320/349	94	302	7	3	17%	9%	92	+0.6
✕Casey Kotchman 2012 · MLB	29	55→62	44→50	42→40	53	267/329/387	121	287	12	3	12%	7%	104	+1.6	240/297/352	112	255	13	5	11%	6%	84	+0.2	229/283/328	99	242	11	2	11%	6%	72	-0.5
✕Chris Richard 2003 · MLB	29	50→52	52→55	41→50	49	251/315/425	173	281	18	10	18%	7%	108	+1.9	241/306/396	155	283	16	8	20%	8%	98	+1.2	220/290/395	175	270	21	8	26%	7%	92	+0.5
✕Josh Satin 2014 · MLB	29	54→59	46→45	37→40	52	259/337/392	133	336	12	3	25%	10%	108	+1.9	229/303/341	112	294	10	4	24%	9%	84	+0.1	218/293/319	100	278	8	1	23%	9%	74	-0.4
●Matt Joyce 2015 · MLB	30	48→52	50→60	40→50	57	242/333/400	159	284	17	6	21%	12%	109	+2.0	231/332/406	175	274	20	4	22%	12%	110	+2.1	234/345/446	212	261	26	3	21%	14%	124	+1.9

Spencer Horwitz

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps