Josh Satin
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 29 | AAALas Vegas 51s | 440 | .289/.390/.439 | 9 | 1 | 82 | — | .235/.307/.347 | |
| 2014 | 29 | MLBNYM | 43 | .086/.256/.143 | 0 | 0 | 33 | -1.2 | ||
| 2015 | 30 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 295 | .238/.344/.343 | 4 | 1 | 64 | — | .222/.293/.310 | |
| 2016 | 31 | AAASD | 49 | .182/.250/.273 | 0 | 0 | 6 | — | .133/.188/.200 | |
| 2017 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2018 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2019 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 37 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 38 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 39 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 40 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 41 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 24 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | — | 28 | 22 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 364 | 481 | 591 | 1.072 | 227 | 467 | 25 | 18 | 452 | 143 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A | Savannah Sand Gnats | — | 520 | 440 | 125 | 38 | 0 | 7 | 73 | 103 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 284 | 388 | 418 | 807 | 134 | 352 | 20 | 14 | 362 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA | Binghamton Mets | — | 332 | 286 | 88 | 24 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 71 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 308 | 398 | 472 | 870 | 164 | 384 | 21 | 11 | 385 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | — | 245 | 209 | 66 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 50 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 316 | 409 | 459 | 868 | 144 | 391 | 20 | 12 | 385 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 48 | 41 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 390 | 479 | 512 | 991 | 122 | 556 | 27 | 12 | 444 | 187 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | MLB | New York Mets | — | 27 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 259 | 240 | 499 | 40 | 357 | 41 | 4 | 235 | 49 | -2 | +0 | +1 | -12 | +1 | -1.2 |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 160 | 145 | 46 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 317 | 381 | 393 | 774 | 76 | 405 | 21 | 9 | 352 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AA | Binghamton Mets | — | 404 | 338 | 110 | 35 | 2 | 11 | 57 | 91 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 325 | 429 | 538 | 967 | 213 | 411 | 23 | 14 | 420 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | INTL | Leones del Caracas | — | 59 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 407 | 293 | 699 | 146 | 174 | 27 | 29 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 527 | 441 | 126 | 25 | 1 | 14 | 77 | 109 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 286 | 395 | 442 | 838 | 156 | 346 | 21 | 15 | 373 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | — | 221 | 190 | 53 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 56 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 279 | 377 | 405 | 783 | 126 | 379 | 25 | 14 | 353 | 127 | +7 | -0 | -1 | -9 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | — | 264 | 220 | 67 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 43 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 305 | 420 | 491 | 911 | 186 | 349 | 17 | 16 | 406 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | — | 43 | 35 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 86 | 256 | 143 | 399 | 57 | 143 | 33 | 14 | 212 | 33 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -9 | +1 | -1.2 |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | — | 440 | 374 | 108 | 27 | 1 | 9 | 61 | 79 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 289 | 390 | 439 | 828 | 150 | 341 | 18 | 14 | 369 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 280 | 235 | 58 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 44 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 247 | 352 | 357 | 709 | 111 | 283 | 16 | 12 | 318 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | INTL | Toros del Este | — | 15 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 200 | 77 | 277 | 91 | 13 | 13 | 153 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 49 | 44 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 273 | 523 | 91 | 242 | 22 | 4 | 237 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 291 | 250 | 61 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 37 | 81 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 244 | 348 | 352 | 700 | 108 | 347 | 28 | 13 | 322 | 104 | +1 | -0 | -0 | -29 | +6 | -2.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 24 | A+ MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 28 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 304 | 407 | 522 | 929 | 217 | 420 | 36 | 14 | 379 | 143 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A MLE | Savannah Sand Gnats | — | 520 | 467 | 106 | 30 | 0 | 6 | 46 | 138 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 227 | 299 | 330 | 629 | 103 | 299 | 27 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA MLE | Binghamton Mets | — | 332 | 296 | 80 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 89 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 270 | 343 | 399 | 742 | 128 | 359 | 27 | 8 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | A+ MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 245 | 218 | 58 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 70 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 266 | 339 | 385 | 724 | 119 | 361 | 29 | 9 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | MLB MLE | New York Mets | — | 27 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 259 | 240 | 499 | 40 | 357 | 41 | 4 | 241 | 49 | -2 | +0 | +1 | -12 | +1 | -1.2 |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 160 | 150 | 39 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 39 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 260 | 306 | 320 | 626 | 60 | 351 | 24 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Mets | — | 404 | 354 | 100 | 31 | 2 | 8 | 41 | 112 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 282 | 363 | 449 | 813 | 167 | 375 | 28 | 10 | 350 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 527 | 467 | 120 | 22 | 1 | 13 | 51 | 132 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 257 | 334 | 392 | 726 | 135 | 320 | 25 | 10 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | MLB MLE | New York Mets | — | 221 | 192 | 55 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 56 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 286 | 377 | 417 | 794 | 130 | 379 | 25 | 13 | 356 | 127 | +7 | -0 | -1 | -9 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 264 | 233 | 56 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 61 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 240 | 330 | 365 | 694 | 124 | 305 | 23 | 11 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | MLB MLE | New York Mets | — | 43 | 35 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 86 | 256 | 143 | 399 | 57 | 143 | 33 | 14 | 217 | 33 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -9 | +1 | -1.2 |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 440 | 395 | 93 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 40 | 108 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 235 | 307 | 347 | 654 | 111 | 297 | 25 | 9 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 280 | 248 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 53 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 222 | 293 | 310 | 604 | 89 | 253 | 19 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 49 | 45 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 188 | 200 | 388 | 67 | 196 | 31 | 2 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 548 | 490 | 111 | 31 | 0 | 6 | 50 | 148 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 227 | 301 | 327 | 627 | 100 | 307 | 27 | 9 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 548 | 462 | 133 | 40 | 0 | 8 | 78 | 110 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 288 | 393 | 426 | 819 | 139 | 357 | 20 | 14 | 366 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 625 | 557 | 150 | 38 | 1 | 10 | 51 | 173 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 269 | 342 | 395 | 737 | 126 | 369 | 28 | 8 | 321 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 625 | 536 | 170 | 41 | 1 | 13 | 72 | 134 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 317 | 409 | 470 | 879 | 153 | 398 | 21 | 12 | 390 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 650 | 582 | 158 | 42 | 2 | 9 | 56 | 177 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 271 | 343 | 397 | 740 | 125 | 372 | 27 | 9 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 650 | 549 | 167 | 44 | 2 | 14 | 89 | 151 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 304 | 408 | 468 | 876 | 164 | 393 | 23 | 14 | 389 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 527 | 467 | 120 | 22 | 1 | 13 | 51 | 132 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 257 | 334 | 392 | 726 | 135 | 326 | 25 | 10 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AAA RAW | Buffalo Bisons | — | 527 | 441 | 126 | 25 | 1 | 14 | 77 | 109 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 286 | 395 | 442 | 838 | 156 | 346 | 21 | 15 | 373 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 485 | 425 | 111 | 27 | 0 | 9 | 58 | 117 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 261 | 351 | 388 | 739 | 127 | 340 | 24 | 12 | 333 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 485 | 410 | 120 | 29 | 0 | 12 | 73 | 101 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 293 | 401 | 451 | 852 | 159 | 362 | 21 | 15 | 382 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 483 | 430 | 96 | 23 | 1 | 7 | 46 | 122 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 223 | 303 | 330 | 633 | 107 | 292 | 25 | 10 | 283 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 483 | 409 | 111 | 29 | 1 | 9 | 67 | 93 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 271 | 378 | 413 | 791 | 142 | 328 | 19 | 14 | 355 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 295 | 262 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 56 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 221 | 292 | 317 | 608 | 95 | 262 | 19 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 295 | 248 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 46 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 238 | 344 | 343 | 686 | 105 | 272 | 16 | 12 | 310 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 49 | 45 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 188 | 200 | 388 | 67 | 200 | 31 | 2 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA RAW | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 49 | 44 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 273 | 523 | 91 | 242 | 22 | 4 | 237 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 548 | 491 | 111 | 31 | 0 | 6 | 50 | 148 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 226 | 301 | 326 | 627 | 100 | 305 | 27 | 9 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 625 | 558 | 150 | 38 | 1 | 10 | 51 | 173 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 269 | 342 | 394 | 737 | 125 | 360 | 28 | 8 | 321 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 650 | 582 | 158 | 42 | 2 | 9 | 56 | 177 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 271 | 343 | 397 | 740 | 125 | 368 | 27 | 9 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 527 | 468 | 120 | 22 | 1 | 13 | 51 | 132 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 256 | 334 | 391 | 725 | 135 | 320 | 25 | 10 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 485 | 423 | 111 | 27 | 0 | 9 | 58 | 117 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 262 | 351 | 390 | 741 | 128 | 339 | 24 | 12 | 333 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 483 | 431 | 96 | 23 | 1 | 7 | 46 | 122 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 223 | 303 | 329 | 632 | 107 | 283 | 25 | 10 | 283 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 295 | 267 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 56 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 217 | 292 | 311 | 603 | 94 | 253 | 19 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 49 | 46 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 130 | 188 | 196 | 383 | 65 | 196 | 31 | 2 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 291 | 250 | 61 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 37 | 81 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 244 | 348 | 352 | 700 | 108 | 347 | 28 | 13 | 322 | 94 | +1 | -0 | -0 | -29 | +6 | -2.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 558 | 136 | 40 | 0 | 7 | 83 | 181 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 244 | 349 | 353 | 702 | 109 | 347 | 28 | 13 | 322 | 94 | +3 | -0 | -1 | -65 | +14 | -5.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3662 | 3258 | 810 | 197 | 6 | 58 | 335 | 940 | 33 | 11 | 23 | 249 | 325 | 366 | 691 | 118 | 328 | 26 | 9 | 307 | 94 | +1 | -0 | -0 | -29 | +6 | -2.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 143 | 35 | 1 | 10 | 59 | 167 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 247 | 323 | 363 | 687 | 116 | 327 | 26 | 9 | 307 | 94 | +3 | -0 | -1 | -65 | +14 | -5.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 49 PAwOBA .231 → .177 (−54)K% 22.4% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.45% | ÷0.951 | ×1.290 | — | — | 30.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.08% | ÷1.004 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.952 | 2.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.08% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.952 | 3.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.12% | ÷1.026 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.952 | 10.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.12% | ÷0.987 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.952 | 9.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.952 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.160 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.952 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 105, 2B 97, 3B 106, K 90, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .231 → .177; ISO .091 → .066; BABIP .242 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAALouisville Bats · 280 PAwOBA .312 → .269 (−44)K% 15.7% → 19.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.71% | ÷0.991 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.43% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 7.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.43% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.47% | ÷0.999 | ×0.930 | ×1.021 | ×0.962 | 19.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.28% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | ×1.021 | ×0.962 | 5.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷0.922 | ×0.970 | ×1.021 | ×0.962 | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.09% | ÷1.009 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.962 | 1.68% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 84, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .312 → .269; ISO .111 → .098; BABIP .283 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAALas Vegas 51s · 440 PAwOBA .364 → .289 (−74)K% 18.0% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.95% | ÷0.945 | ×1.290 | — | — | 24.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.86% | ÷1.060 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.972 | 9.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.23% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.972 | 0.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.07% | ÷0.991 | ×0.900 | ×1.035 | ×0.972 | 21.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.15% | ÷1.057 | ×0.810 | ×1.035 | ×0.972 | 7.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.34% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.035 | ×0.972 | 0.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.05% | ÷0.925 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.972 | 2.50% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 98, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 89, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .364 → .289; ISO .150 → .118; BABIP .341 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAALas Vegas 51s · 264 PAwOBA .396 → .313 (−83)K% 17.0% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.05% | ÷0.952 | ×1.290 | — | — | 23.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.29% | ÷0.994 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.982 | 11.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.38% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.982 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.14% | ÷1.018 | ×0.900 | ×1.048 | ×0.982 | 22.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.810 | ×1.048 | ×0.982 | 6.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.048 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.14% | ÷1.078 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.982 | 3.66% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 90, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.
Result: wOBA .396 → .313; ISO .186 → .137; BABIP .349 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAABuffalo Bisons · 527 PAwOBA .367 → .321 (−45)K% 20.7% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.68% | ÷0.989 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.23% | ÷1.002 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 9.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.90% | ÷0.992 | ×0.930 | ×1.018 | ×0.992 | 24.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.53% | ÷0.963 | ×0.830 | ×1.018 | ×0.992 | 6.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.30% | ÷1.002 | ×0.970 | ×1.018 | ×0.992 | 0.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.22% | ÷0.901 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 3.90% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 98, 2B 93, 3B 100, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .367 → .321; ISO .156 → .146; BABIP .346 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AABinghamton Mets · 404 PAwOBA .415 → .350 (−65)K% 22.5% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.52% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.11% | ÷0.944 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 10.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.10% | ÷1.005 | ×0.970 | ×1.005 | ×0.978 | 23.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.17% | ÷0.961 | ×0.860 | ×1.005 | ×0.978 | 12.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.005 | ×0.978 | 0.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.45% | ÷1.102 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 3.08% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 101, 2B 92, 3B 84, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .415 → .350; ISO .213 → .171; BABIP .411 → .375. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAABuffalo Bisons · 160 PAwOBA .343 → .281 (−62)K% 20.6% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.62% | ÷1.026 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.75% | ÷1.088 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.04% | ÷1.008 | ×0.930 | ×0.952 | ×1.003 | 29.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.977 | ×0.830 | ×0.952 | ×1.003 | 5.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.981 | ×0.970 | ×0.952 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.89% | ÷1.139 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 0.66% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 96, K 105, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .343 → .281; ISO .076 → .060; BABIP .405 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AABinghamton Mets · 332 PAwOBA .379 → .324 (−55)K% 21.4% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.39% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.84% | ÷0.975 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.11% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.05% | ÷1.023 | ×0.970 | ×1.032 | ×0.988 | 25.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.16% | ÷0.982 | ×0.860 | ×1.032 | ×0.988 | 9.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.47% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.032 | ×0.988 | 0.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.26% | ÷1.048 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.39% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 105, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .379 → .324; ISO .164 → .133; BABIP .384 → .359. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .