Orlando Ribalta
P
Washington Nationals
Age 28
RHP
6'7" / 245 lbs
MLB
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 28 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 110
ERA4.60
FIP4.84
K%22.8%
BB%14.4%
K-BB%8.4%
ROS IP28
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8196.7
Whiff%
p3523.1%
K%
p3620.2%
xwOBA vs
p550.307
SL+1.1 (39%)
FB (48%)
SI (19%)
CH (13%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 9 | 0 | 17 | 75 | 19 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.9 | 17.2% | 21.7% | -4.4% | 1.9% | 3.18 | 5.41 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 9 | 0 | 17 | 75 | 19 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.9 | 25.3% | 17.3% | 8.0% | 1.3% | 3.18 | 3.92 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 11 | 0 | 17 | 73 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 15.8% | 12.0% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 4.24 | 4.30 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 11 | 0 | 17 | 73 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 1.4% | 4.24 | 3.10 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 50 | 215 | 54 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.9% | 14.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 3.40 | 4.79 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 50 | 215 | 54 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.1% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | 3.40 | 3.85 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 5 levels | 27 | 0 | 35 | 147 | 36 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.7% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 3.89 | 4.06 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 5 levels | 27 | 0 | 35 | 147 | 36 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 16.3% | 1.4% | 3.89 | 2.81 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 55 | 0 | 58 | 251 | 80 | 34 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.7% | 14.9% | 13.8% | 2.5% | 3.43 | 3.95 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 55 | 0 | 58 | 251 | 80 | 34 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.9% | 13.5% | 18.3% | 2.0% | 3.43 | 3.22 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 0 | 33 | 154 | 32 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.67 | 5.88 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 0 | 33 | 154 | 32 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 13.6% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 5.67 | 5.80 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 39 | 0 | 36 | 144 | 30 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 3.53 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 0 | 28 | 117 | 27 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 14.4% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 27 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 14.4% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 63 | 261 | 57 | 31 | 7 | — | — | 21.7% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 55 | 233 | 57 | 31 | 7 | — | — | 24.3% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 50 | 0 | 53 | 223 | 50 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 5.10 | 5.27 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 47 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 46 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 5.25 | 5.40 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 48 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 5.10 | 5.27 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 44 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 5.25 | 5.40 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 175 | 0 | 180 | 784 | 169 | 105 | 28 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 13.4% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 5.29 | 4.89 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 0 | 200 | 870 | 188 | 117 | 31 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 13.4% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 5.29 | 4.89 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 208 | 0 | 246 | 1059 | 223 | 144 | 29 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.1% | 13.6% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 3.85 | 4.56 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 169 | 0 | 200 | 862 | 181 | 117 | 24 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.1% | 13.6% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 3.85 | 4.56 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Orlando Ribalta (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.38 | 24.4% | 16.0% | 3.5% | — | 5.33 | 22.3% | 8.2% | 102 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 78 |
| Yennier Cano R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.45 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 3.3% | .325 | 3.13 | 23.4% | 16.2% | 191 | -1.32 | 2.37 | 363 | 78 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.87 | 232 | 77 |
| Derek Law R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.30 | 23.5% | 13.0% | 2.8% | .306 | 3.27 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 110 | -1.03 | 2.50 | 520 | 77 |
| Joe Harvey R 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.13 | 24.9% | 14.3% | 4.2% | .258 | 5.83 | 26.7% | 6.8% | 17 | +0.70 | 2.55 | 197 | 73 |
| Tyler Kinley R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.30 | 22.6% | 14.9% | 2.2% | .247 | 3.33 | 24.7% | 15.9% | 118 | -0.97 | 1.58 | 578 | 73 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 73 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 73 |
| Brandon Maurer R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 3.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 234 | 73 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 72 |
| Kyle Barraclough R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.53 | 24.5% | 12.7% | 3.5% | .219 | 4.93 | 30.1% | 17.0% | 86 | +0.40 | 1.95 | 523 | 72 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.63 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 315 | 71 |
| Hunter Bigge R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.77 | 20.8% | 14.5% | 2.9% | .222 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 213 | 71 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 71 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 71 |
| Kyle Dowdy R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.10 | 20.3% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .282 | 3.59 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 116 | -1.51 | 2.81 | 606 | 70 |
| Javy Guerra R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.45 | 18.5% | 13.6% | 2.2% | .256 | 5.86 | 15.4% | -1.0% | 61 | +1.41 | 3.41 | 207 | 70 |
| Branden Kline R 2025 · 5.55 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.55 | 20.3% | 11.5% | 4.9% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 167 | 69 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.64 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 142 | 69 |
| Cristofer Ogando R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 20.6% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .236 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 179 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 53 | 23.1% | 14.8% | 1.37 | 5.16 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |