Orlando Ribalta
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.0
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'7" / 245 lbs
AAA
ERA5.81
FIP4.99
xFIP4.21
SIERA3.86
K%23.3%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%11.0%
IP28
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL2525
CMD3535
K†6060
FB Velo
p7796.4
Whiff%
p5325.8%
K%
p4120.8%
xwOBA vs
p120.357
SL+1.1 (37%)
FB (51%)
SI (21%)
CH (11%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | GCL Nationals | 9 | 0 | 17 | 75 | 19 | 13 | 1 | 17.2% | 21.7% | 1.9% | 3.18 | 5.41 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 11 | 0 | 17 | 73 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 15.8% | 12.0% | 1.9% | 4.24 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 36 | 0 | 50 | 215 | 54 | 27 | 5 | 18.9% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 3.40 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 27 | 0 | 35 | 147 | 36 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 3.89 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 55 | 0 | 58 | 251 | 80 | 34 | 5 | 28.7% | 14.9% | 2.5% | 3.43 | 3.93 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 31 | 0 | 33 | 154 | 32 | 21 | 7 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 5.5% | 5.67 | 6.16 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 8 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.45 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | WSH | 26 | — | 26 | 109 | 27 | 16 | 4 | 25.3% | 14.5% | 3.7% | 6.13 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 33 | 135 | 34 | 17 | 4 | 25.6% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 5.31 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 27 | — | 27 | 114 | 28 | 16 | 4 | 24.7% | 14.1% | 3.7% | 5.53 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 177 | 0 | 217 | 941 | 201 | 131 | 27 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 3.85 | 4.64 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 163 | 0 | 200 | 866 | 185 | 121 | 25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 3.85 | 4.64 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Orlando Ribalta (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.21 | 25.3% | 14.5% | 3.7% | — | 5.20 | 24.7% | 10.6% | 27 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Yennier Cano R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.48 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 3.4% | .325 | 3.14 | 23.4% | 16.2% | 191 | -1.34 | 2.39 | 332 | 75 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 75 |
| Derek Law R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.24 | 23.5% | 13.0% | 2.7% | .306 | 3.36 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 110 | -0.88 | 2.51 | 520 | 74 |
| Peyton Gray R 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 73 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 72 |
| Joe Harvey R 2025 · 5.32 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.32 | 24.9% | 14.3% | 4.6% | .258 | 6.03 | 26.7% | 6.8% | 17 | +0.71 | 2.56 | 197 | 72 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.75 | 27.1% | 12.5% | 4.3% | .389 | 4.77 | 29.1% | 19.7% | 116 | +0.02 | 3.10 | 220 | 71 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 71 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.51 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.0% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 315 | 71 |
| Kyle Barraclough R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.63 | 24.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .219 | 5.06 | 30.1% | 17.0% | 86 | +0.43 | 1.95 | 523 | 70 |
| Tyler Bashlor R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.07 | 23.7% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.55 | 253 | 69 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.68 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 142 | 69 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 69 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.45 | 25.6% | 16.8% | 2.5% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 272 | 69 |
| Justin Garza R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.42 | 25.3% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .270 | 4.46 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 151 | +0.04 | 3.78 | 537 | 69 |
| Tyler Kinley R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.25 | 22.6% | 14.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.48 | 24.7% | 15.9% | 118 | -0.77 | 1.58 | 544 | 69 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 69 |
| Steven Wilson R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.25 | 26.0% | 11.9% | 3.4% | .217 | 4.65 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 102 | +0.40 | 3.61 | 311 | 68 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2024 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 68 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.02 | 23.1% | 16.2% | 1.5% | .325 | 4.21 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 103 | +0.19 | 4.02 | 328 | 68 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.