Orlando Ribalta — OGILVIE

Orlando Ribalta P Washington Nationals

Age 28 RHP 6'7" / 245 lbs MLB ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 96

ERA4.49

FIP4.69

K%23.8%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP55

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2525

CMD3535

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8496.9

Whiff%

p5926.7%

p5823.6%

xwOBA vs

p660.296

SL+1.1 (39%)

FB (45%)

SI (17%)

CH (16%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	9	0	17	75	19	13	1	0%	1.9	17.2%	21.7%	-4.4%	1.9%	3.18	5.41	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	9	0	17	75	19	13	1	0%	1.9	25.3%	17.3%	8.0%	1.3%	3.18	3.92	—
2021	23	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	11	0	17	73	17	7	1	0%	1.5	15.8%	12.0%	3.8%	1.9%	4.24	4.32	—
2021	23	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	11	0	17	73	17	7	1	0%	1.5	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	1.4%	4.24	3.10	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	50	215	54	27	5	0%	1.4	18.9%	14.7%	4.2%	2.8%	3.40	4.89	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	50	215	54	27	5	0%	1.4	25.1%	12.6%	12.6%	2.3%	3.40	3.85	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	5 levels	27	0	35	147	36	12	2	0%	1.3	16.7%	9.6%	7.2%	2.3%	3.89	4.18	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	5 levels	27	0	35	147	36	12	2	0%	1.3	16.7%	9.6%	7.2%	2.3%	3.89	4.18	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	5 levels	27	0	35	147	36	12	2	0%	1.3	24.5%	8.2%	16.3%	1.4%	3.89	2.81	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	55	0	58	251	80	34	5	0%	1.0	27.7%	13.3%	14.4%	2.5%	3.43	3.81	+0.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	55	0	58	251	80	34	5	0%	1.0	27.7%	13.3%	14.4%	2.5%	3.43	3.81	+0.5
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	55	0	58	251	80	34	5	0%	1.0	31.9%	13.5%	18.3%	2.0%	3.43	3.22	+0.9
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	0	33	154	32	21	7	0%	1.1	20.8%	14.2%	6.7%	5.0%	5.67	5.88	-0.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	0	33	154	32	21	7	0%	1.1	20.8%	14.2%	6.7%	5.0%	5.67	5.88	-0.5
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	0	33	154	32	21	7	0%	1.1	20.8%	13.6%	7.1%	4.5%	5.67	5.80	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			71	0	71	321	70	37	11	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.5%	10.3%	3.4%	5.35	4.71	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	54	0	51	208	49	21	5	0%	0.9	23.6%	10.1%	13.5%	2.8%	3.53	3.93	+0.4
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	54	0	51	208	49	21	5	0%	0.9	23.6%	10.1%	13.5%	2.8%	3.53	3.93	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	WSH	9	0	8	30	7	3	0	0%	0.9	23.3%	10.0%	13.3%	0.0%	2.25	2.40	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	WSH	45	0	43	178	42	18	5	0%	1.0	23.6%	10.1%	13.5%	2.8%	3.77	3.93	+0.3
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	WSH	45	0	43	178	42	18	5	0%	1.0	23.6%	10.1%	13.5%	2.8%	3.77	3.93	+0.3
ROS	28	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.8%	13.6%	10.3%	3.4%	4.49	4.69	—
ROS	28	MLB CTX	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.8%	13.6%	10.3%	3.4%	4.49	4.69	—
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	51	208	49	21	5	—	—	23.6%	10.1%	13.5%	2.4%	3.53	3.93	+0.4
FULL	28	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	43	182	49	21	5	—	—	27.0%	11.6%	15.4%	2.8%	4.19	3.80	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	WSH	50	0	53	223	52	30	8	0%	1.1	23.2%	13.4%	9.9%	3.4%	4.95	5.10	-0.3
2028	30	MLB MLE	WSH	47	0	50	209	47	28	8	0%	1.1	22.6%	13.4%	9.2%	3.6%	5.10	5.24	-0.4
2027	29	MLB CTX	WSH	48	0	50	211	49	28	7	0%	1.0	23.2%	13.4%	9.9%	3.4%	4.95	5.10	-0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	WSH	45	0	47	198	45	27	7	0%	1.0	22.6%	13.4%	9.2%	3.6%	5.10	5.24	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		164	0	168	732	164	92	25	0%	1.0	22.4%	12.6%	9.9%	3.5%	5.16	4.71	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		195	0	200	871	195	110	30	0%	1.0	22.4%	12.6%	9.9%	3.5%	5.16	4.71	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		223	0	261	1123	240	147	32	0%	1.2	21.4%	13.1%	8.3%	2.8%	3.83	4.51	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		171	0	200	861	184	113	24	0%	1.2	21.4%	13.1%	8.3%	2.8%	3.83	4.51	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Orlando Ribalta (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.31	24.1%	15.3%	3.5%	—	5.17	22.9%	9.6%	102	-0.14	—	—	—
Yennier Cano R 2022 · 4.46 FIP	28	SU	4.46	23.2%	11.8%	3.3%	.325	3.19	23.4%	16.2%	191	-1.27	2.43	377	79
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	76
Derek Law R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	28	SU	4.30	23.5%	13.0%	2.8%	.306	3.31	20.8%	12.2%	110	-0.99	2.49	520	76
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	74
Tyler Kinley R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	28	SU	4.32	22.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.247	3.51	24.7%	15.9%	118	-0.81	1.58	595	72
Joe Harvey R 2019 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	24.9%	14.3%	4.8%	.258	6.09	26.7%	6.8%	17	+0.66	2.56	197	72
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	72
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	71
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	71
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	71
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	71
Branden Kline R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	27	SU	5.37	20.3%	11.5%	4.6%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	2.85	167	70
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	70
Steven Wilson R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	26.0%	11.9%	3.1%	.217	4.57	20.8%	10.9%	119	+0.45	3.64	328	70
Neil Ramírez R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	28	SU	4.66	27.1%	12.5%	4.1%	.389	4.86	29.1%	19.7%	116	+0.20	3.21	220	70
José Ramírez R 2017 · 4.56 FIP	27	SU	4.56	21.7%	10.9%	3.5%	.218	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	206	69
Justin Garza R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	28	SU	4.42	25.3%	10.9%	3.8%	.270	4.36	19.1%	10.3%	151	-0.06	3.74	537	69
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	69
Cristofer Ogando R 2022 · 4.90 FIP	28	SU	4.90	20.6%	11.6%	3.8%	.236	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	179	69
Neftalí Feliz R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	28.0%	9.2%	5.0%	.236	5.02	17.1%	4.4%	138	+0.40	3.54	291	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	51	23.3%	14.0%	1.36	5.05
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39